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Author Topic:   Werewolf: The New Breed.(part 2)
MeddlingMage
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posted February 05, 2010 03:14 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for MeddlingMage Click Here to Email MeddlingMage Send a private message to MeddlingMage Click to send MeddlingMage an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
WEREWOLF

The Rules of Werewolf

Overview:

The citizens of a small village, Pogglesworth, one morning wake up to discover that there are werewolves in their town! If something is not done, the entire village population will be eaten!

There will be 17 players. 3 Werewolves, 1 Seer, 1 Angel and 12 Villagers.

Teams :

There are two teams, werewolves and villagers. In the standard game on the werewolf side are, the werewolves. They all know each other. On the villager side you have the villagers, the seer, and the angel.The Seer and Angel Will Not know each others identity.

Winning Conditions:
The werewolves win by eliminating enough people so that they make up half of the players in the game. The villagers win by eliminating all the werewolves.

Roles:

* The Villager- Anyone who is a regular villager is trying to lynch all the wolves. They win if all the wolves are dead, even if they are dead themselves.

* The Werewolf- Werewolves talk and vote just like the villagers. One of the 3 Werewolves, will be the leader, responsible for getting me the name of the villager chosen to be killed.

* The Seer- The seer talks and votes just like the villagers.The seer is allowed to determine the role of any one townsperson. The seer is on the villager side and has the same winning conditions. The seer at some point, will come out, and share their information. Once the Seer reveals himself and his information, the Angel can no longer protect him (for obvious reasons).No one else is allowed to announce their role at any time.

You can not lie about being the Seer!

* The Angel- The angel talks and votes just like the villagers. The angel may choose any one person to protect from the wolves. The angel is on the villagers side and has the same winning conditions. If a villager is targeted by the Werewolves, and has been chosen by the Angel, they will survive.The angel can save a player as many times as s/he wishes, but can never save her/himself.
Players can not ask if another player is the Angel. Nor should a player if asked, answer. Hypotheticals about the Angel are permissible however. (IE.,if I were the Angel, than [Player X] might be worth a save this round)

Roles will be randomly determined by me. I will the PM roles to the players. If you don't get a PM, your a villager. Please do not discuss your roles with anyone, live, dead or otherwise as to prevent accidents. If you are not a Werewolf, the ONLY PM's that you are to send are to me. Werewolf to Werewolf is the only acceptable PM's between players.

Game play:

To start the game, the Werewolves will give me a name of who their first victim is(R0) Then all the players discuss what to do. Before the specified time, all players must submit to me their vote, via pm. If multiple votes are submitted, the most recent will be counted. I will then reveal who voted for whom and which player has been eliminated .After the lynching, the Werewolves, Seer and the Angel, all pm me their targets. If the Angel's target is the same as the Werewolves for that round, and only that round that player will be saved.Then the next round of voting and so on. Remember, the Werewolves act first, before there is a lynch.

In the event of a tie, a town meeting will be held. The leading vote getters would each get a chance to "plead their case" to the townsfolk. Then there would be a re-vote due within 24 hrs.If at this point, there is still a tie then "The god's of fate"(a die roll) will determine the outcome.

I urge all who sign up to play to be consistent throughout, as failure to not post/vote may lead to you being asked not to play future rounds, or me removing you from a game with an alternate.

If you are currently alive in mafia, you can not play and vice-versa.

If you are dead, STAY THAT WAY. There is no reason for anybody that is dead to post on the thread for ANY reason!

I used random<dot>org for a number generator to assign the roles.
If you have not received a PM, You are a villager!

So no one should be posting, "Hey MM, I didn't receive a PM, do I have a role?"

Those last 2 lines are for the new players.

Votes will always be due on the specified day at 9PM eastern time (6pm motl time). I will never cut rounds short. There is always a chance that someone could have a reason to change their vote, and I am all about allowing that. If for some reason, I don't post the votes at 9:00 pm, that doesn't mean you can't still change your vote. Remember, the last vote I get before I post results is the vote that will be counted.
AIM is meddlingeric for any and all questions. Also will accept kills and votes on here if you want to make sure I get them. This section is going to be added to the rules for future games.

GL and HF!

~MM

The Players

Caitiri
fwybwed
Jazaray
TheMidnightBomber

The deceased

AlmasterGM ~ (angel, NK0)
Morbid- ~ (villager, L1)
puregoblinboy47 ~ (villager, NK1)
Battle_of_Twits ~ (villager, L2)
Gawain ~ (villager, NK2)
BernieB ~ (Werewolf, L3)
PlasteredDragon ~ (villager, NK3)
Dakrum ~ (Werewolf, L4)
JoshSherman ~ {seer, NK4)
XplicitR ~ (villager, L5)
MagicMystic ~ (villager, NK5)
Bruised ~ (villager, L6)
MasterWolf ~ (villager, NK6)


__________________
I am MeddlingMage...YOUR Motl Survivor 11 Champion and 2007 Captain N award winner, and I approve this siggy!

My entire MtG collection is for sale!
PM me if you'd like a list emailed to you!



[Edited 5 times, lastly by MeddlingMage on February 17, 2010]

 
PlasteredDragon
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posted February 05, 2010 06:57 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for PlasteredDragon Click Here to Email PlasteredDragon Send a private message to PlasteredDragon Click to send PlasteredDragon an Instant MessageVisit PlasteredDragon's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Jazaray:
I'm sorry PD, I love you lots and everything.... but.. This post feels extremely contrived. Why would you post this?

Contrivance is in the eye of the beholder. I assure you it was a genuine sentiment. Considering how many times we've lost our seer before he could be of any use in recent memory, I think it's freakin awesome that our current bunch of wolves stink so bad at seer hunting. Think of it, we actually have a seer with 2 names out there. Yayyyyy!

The cold meds knocked me out but I still feel tired. Going back to bed. I see MM still hasn't decided on a replacement for TMB.

 
Jazaray
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posted February 05, 2010 07:08 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for Jazaray Click Here to Email Jazaray Send a private message to Jazaray Click to send Jazaray an Instant MessageVisit Jazaray's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Contrivance is in the eye of the beholder. I assure you it was a genuine sentiment. Considering how many times we've lost our seer before he could be of any use in recent memory, I think it's freakin awesome that our current bunch of wolves stink so bad at seer hunting. Think of it, we actually have a seer with 2 names out there. Yayyyyy!

The cold meds knocked me out but I still feel tired. Going back to bed. I see MM still hasn't decided on a replacement for TMB.


.... I think you need to lay off of the meds, PD. Seriously.

Thanks,
Jazaray

Edit: Fixed UBB Code.. I don't understand why it does that sometimes, and not other times.

__________________
A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick:
There was a nice lassie named Jaz
Many wished to have what she has,
A delicate face,
A soft warm embrace,
And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.

WeedIan: Jazaray is like MOTL's Mom.


[Edited 1 times, lastly by Jazaray on February 05, 2010]

MeddlingMage
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posted February 05, 2010 07:20 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for MeddlingMage Click Here to Email MeddlingMage Send a private message to MeddlingMage Click to send MeddlingMage an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
[B] I see MM still hasn't decided on a replacement for TMB.

PM's have been sent

~MM

__________________
I am MeddlingMage...YOUR Motl Survivor 11 Champion and 2007 Captain N award winner, and I approve this siggy!

My entire MtG collection is for sale!
PM me if you'd like a list emailed to you!

 
XplicitR
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posted February 05, 2010 09:31 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for XplicitR Click Here to Email XplicitR Send a private message to XplicitR Click to send XplicitR an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View XplicitR's Have/Want ListView XplicitR's Have/Want List
Jazaray, I don't see how you think PD's post is suspicious but don't see anything bad in Bruised's post.
 
Jazaray
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posted February 05, 2010 11:17 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for Jazaray Click Here to Email Jazaray Send a private message to Jazaray Click to send Jazaray an Instant MessageVisit Jazaray's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by XplicitR:
Jazaray, I don't see how you think PD's post is suspicious but don't see anything bad in Bruised's post.

This is Bruised first game, to me, that post sounded like him trying to put forth an effort. Trying to emulate us, maybe. This is PD's... millionth? I've never seen him post something like that before. Are you saying that you don't think PD's post seemed a bit odd to you?

Thanks,
Jazaray

__________________
A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick:
There was a nice lassie named Jaz
Many wished to have what she has,
A delicate face,
A soft warm embrace,
And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.

WeedIan: Jazaray is like MOTL's Mom.

Caitiri
Member
posted February 06, 2010 03:35 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for Caitiri Click Here to Email Caitiri Send a private message to Caitiri Click to send Caitiri an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
A long note regarding PD:
PD is very good at assimilating large amounts of information and trying to find patterns, or if need be constructing them. He is eloquent, logical, and very good at defending himself. I feel I always need to be aware of how I feel about his arguments and the weight I give them simply because he is so good at constructing them and it is easy to get caught up in them. Perhaps this leads me to be inherently more suspicious of him, but I think this is better than being trusting. But, while he can be insightful, even as a cit he is still guessing at who the wolves are, and as a wolf he can use his talents to manipulate the populace and keep himself from being lynched (see WW7 where he thrice talked himself out of the noose). He can also be quite adept at engineering conversation between himself and other wolves for some benefit (something I thought might be going on between him and Gawain, although I was starting to second guess myself toward the end of the argument). His ability and the amount of time he dedicates to the game leads to the fact that he is a common seer target and seldom lasts until the end of the game, either due to the wolves or the noose. The fact that he is a common seer target itself leads to a few different things. First, as a wolf he knows this and plays accordingly. When I was a wolf with him I believe one of the first messages I got from him was an apology, simply because it's so hard for him to survive and to not get seered. This means that bold moves a wolf might not normally make are more within the scope of something PD can pull off, since he's planning on getting lynched anyway. Second, even if I am still somewhat suspicious of him, it might not be worth spending a lynch on him at this time since, with two targets under his belt, I assume the seer has already scryed PD. Perhaps it's worth pursuing other members of the populace under the assumption that the seer has already checked PD, and waiting until the seer comes out to act accordingly (or, if the seer is killed, revisiting the matter at that time). I know this has been suggested in other games, and I think it is right. As such, I'm going to suspend my suspicion of PD for the moment (this doesn't mean I'm going to trust everything he says), under the assumption that the seer has scryed him and it would be best to pursue other avenues. As for what those avenues may be, it's now 5:30am and I'm going to bed, so that is a topic for tomorrow, although I do think Jaz deserves a second look.

-Caitiri

{SUMMARY: Explains current stance on PD.}

__________________
Dark Ritual count: 746

 
PlasteredDragon
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posted February 06, 2010 06:01 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for PlasteredDragon Click Here to Email PlasteredDragon Send a private message to PlasteredDragon Click to send PlasteredDragon an Instant MessageVisit PlasteredDragon's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Caitiri:
A long note regarding PD...

I disagree with none of this--well except maybe the part about being eloquent. You're right I am just guessing like the rest of us, and all my patternistic methodologies are heuristics--they can fail. And you are right to be suspicious of me.

I've been crunching the information from the survey. The problem is apart from myself and BOT, pretty much nobody from the Morbid pile took it. Well fwy did, but only in a superficial sense, his answers were basically nonanswers and he might as well have skipped it. If I were the paranoid type, I'd say he did just enough so that he could say he responded.

It was good that ALL the non-MOR voters responded... they're all pretty cooperative. I've been comparing their responses and nothing major has jumped out at me. Here are the minor things (comments follow after list):

(1) MW was the only one who felt that pursuing the non-MOR pile was probably not going to be productive.

(2) XPR was the only one who volunteered to be lynched first.

(3) JAZ seemed to suggest fairly strongly that there were TWO wolves in the non-MOR pile (MW & XPR).

(4) The player with the least consistent set of answers was XPR.

(5) The player with the most consistent set of answers was JAZ.

On #1: funny thing is I partially agree with MW. We saw 3 wolves pile into one pile last game, and the Morbid- pile was HUGE. With all three wolves in that pile they'd still be hard to find. OTOH it's hard to miss the fact that both wolfkills have been in the MOR pile--you'd think if their buddies were in that pile they'd be less driven to reduce it's size.

At present I think the most likely spread is 2 in the MOR pile, and 1 outside the MOR pile.

On #2: While that would be admirable, if the populace agreed to lynch the pile, and he got to pick the order, there's no compelling reason for him to go first. Given the populace agreed in this hypothetical, it doesn't really matter if he goes first or last--he's supposed to be picking the order that is most likely to produce a wolf the earliest. Picking himself seems like going out of his way to look like a team player. That's just idle speculation on my part, though.

On #3: she seems to believe this pretty strongly given some of her other answers, in Q4 she was supposed to pick 2 players from the MOR pile as most likely cohorts of her prime non-MOR suspect (MW), one of her choices was XPR, who of course is also in the non-MOR pile. Her answer to the "assume all your suspicions are wrong" question was to again pick XPR.

While 2 wolves in such a small pile is believable, they'd be pretty exposed. It seems unlikely to me--not impossible but unlikely.

On #4: XPR's responses are a little odd. He felt the non-MOR pile was worth pursuing, but every time he had a choice in Q7 to pick the "most suspicious of 3" players, he never picked a non-MOR player... BRU, BOT, MMY, JSH, FWY... these were more suspicious than the non-MOR player they went up against in the survey.

On #5: Out of 7 opportunities to pick a non-MOR player as most suspicious, Jaz picked one 4 times, more than anyone else. Furthermore, using her answers from #7 to put players in order of suspiciousness (to her) the order produced exactly matches her answer to #3 (in what order should the non-MOR pile be taken out)--this wasn't true of any other player.

I'm not sure if we can draw useful conclusions from this info, but I thought it was interesting. Here are a few highly specific questions I'd like to see answered by specific people:

1. Bruised, in round 2 you suspected everyone in the non-MOR pile except for dakrum. Can you explain why you suspect MW & JAZ? Furthermore, can you give me your threat level assessment of Josh and Mystic?

2. Josh, you've had Mystic and Bruised on your suspect list in both R1 and R2. Can you explain why you suspect these two players?

3. Mystic, would you be willing to do a run down on all the other players and where you stand on each (with reasons)? If not, how about specifically Josh and Bruised?

4. XPR, of all the players over R1 and R2 you've had the shortest suspect list each round. Your suspicion appears to be highly targeted, thus your survey answers were the most interesting. I'd like to get your assessment of Bruised, Josh, Mystic, and Jaz.

5. JAZ, am I correct in my assessment that at the time you answered the survey, you felt there were 2 wolves in the non-MOR pile? Do you still feel that way? Asked to select likely cohorts for your prime suspect you chose XPR and BOT. Now that BOT is confirmed as a cit, and assuming that MW is still your top suspect, who do you think are his partners?

Finally, it's time for me to say who I've been watching out of the corner of my eye without pointing at them, although it's probably obvious from the above, Josh, Mystic, and Bruised.

Josh has a lot of reknown as one of the best mafia players on MOTL, and I've noted a relatively quiet, nonconfrontational, highly observant appearance to him. His suspect lists don't come with a lot of analysis, and I am a little put off by that. And frankly, he makes me nervous because of his rep--if he's a wolf, we'd definitely be at a disadvantage. I have no case against him tho... his game has appeared quite clean. I guess I'd feel better if I got a peek inside his brain.

Mystic is a cipher to me. All I get from him is a gut level vibe. Again, I'm not seeing anything that looks like analysis to me, and his suspect list has been vanishingly short. The vibe I get is a noncommittal, surface-level, going through the motions one. This is juxtaposed with a player who seemed extremely eager at game-start. Maybe it's just his style and I am unfamiliar with it so it makes me nervy. This is another player who I'd like to get a better feel for.

Bruised has been fairly quiet, and for the large part I haven't paid him much attention--which upon reflection makes me think I'm not doing my job and should know more. One thing about Bruised is his track record of calling cits--Morbid and BOT, both predicted as cits by Bruised. Could just be he's a sharp cookie... or it could be an investment for future cred. Either way I'd like to hear more from Bruised, and more about him. (Especially from XPR who's survey crunched answers point to the lowest level of suspecting confirmed cits among all the non-MOR players.)

I'm frustrated in that I don't have any really strong suspects right now--TMB is bailing, BOT was a cit, and the case on Cait was never strong. R3 is typically the round it which it makes sense to info-lynch me and I feel like not much of use will be learned since I don't have a strong case.

At the same time I have a very familiar gnawing sensation which I get when I feel like my subconscious has noticed something that my conscious mind has not. I've missed something--it might even be something obvious. WTH is it?

I have a shoot today so I will be away for most of the day. Hopefully when I return there will be something useful on the thread to help me identify some wolves, and then if you guys want to do a PD-info-lynch, I'm down with it... unless you think I've been seered already. Seems likely, esp if the seer is a regular.

That's another thing... over all the recent games of yore the seer has been getting whacked early. But not this time. Can we conclude anything about the wolves from that datum? Would they be newish or lower-tier players maybe?

There is definitely something I'm missing and it is bugging me. I'm going to have to re-read the thread. Also it probably can't hurt to review BOT and GAW since they've been confirmed. I haven't done so. I know BOT suspected me a lot but I think much of it was OMGUS type stuff. Here's the link lists if you want to review them too.

BOT:
017. Jan-24 08:45 AM: signed up - (ref: nobody)
091. Jan-30 11:00 AM: Posts notes. Top suspects PD (+6), B77 (+4), BernieB (+3), Morbid (+3). - (ref: everybody)
120. Jan-31 04:34 PM: Condolences to Bernek. Apologizes for "analysis post". Agrees with Morbid- vote. - (ref: Bernk, Morb, PD)
124. Jan-31 06:29 PM: Thinks Bernek's "Good Luck Cits" all but clears him. - (ref: PD)
126. Jan-31 07:20 PM: Argues his case for Bernek = cit. - (ref: Bernk)
130. Jan-31 09:20 PM: Josh is a d-bag. - (ref: Josh)
144. Feb-01 07:11 AM: Last post was friendly jab. Sending in vote. (For??) - (ref: nobody)
148. Feb-01 11:20 AM: Curious about old theory that if wolves don't kill strongest player, then strongest player is a wolf. - (ref: Bernk)
181. Feb-02 07:27 PM: main suspicion is between MasterWolf and XplicitR - (ref: AGM, MW, Morb, PD, xplicit)
185. Feb-02 09:12 PM: Argues with XPR. - (ref: AGM, Bernk, MW, Morb, xplicit)
197. Feb-03 09:45 AM: Responds to GAW & PD. - (ref: BOT, Gaw, Josh, PD, PGB)
212. Feb-03 02:40 PM: Masterwolf and/or Xpr are wolves, or a grand master wolf is trying to set them up. PD is type of player that could and would set that up - (ref: AGM, MW, PD, PGB, xplicit)
215. Feb-03 04:05 PM: Whatever, apparently I'm awful and I'm just going to lead the wolves to a win. Vote submitted. I'll let you figure out for whom. - (ref: nobody)
217. Feb-03 05:15 PM: <Snip> Snipping my own contemptuous post. - (ref: xplicit)
238. Feb-04 10:30 AM: Answers survey. - (ref: everybody but AGM, Morb, PGB)

Gawain:
004. Jan-20 08:51 PM: signed up - (ref: nobody)
026. Jan-27 02:31 PM: part 1, page 2 - (ref: Jaz)
046. Jan-28 09:02 PM: part 1, page 2 - (ref: PD)
061. Jan-29 01:10 PM: part 1, page 3 - (ref: nobody)
078. Jan-29 04:06 PM: Maybe wolves just needed a long time to decide? - (ref: Bernk, PD)
082. Jan-29 04:55 PM: provides rundown for MMY - (ref: everybody but AGM)
096. Jan-30 03:16 PM: Mildly suspicious of BOT. Inquires about policy lynch. - (ref: BOT, PD)
100. Jan-30 03:55 PM: grills MM - (ref: AGM)
104. Jan-30 04:12 PM: Agrees with MMY, but suggests waiting until later in the round. - (ref: Mystic)
111. Jan-31 03:39 AM: Condolences to Bernek. - (ref: Bernk)
139. Jan-31 11:45 PM: Agrees Bernek more likely cit. - (ref: BOT, Bernk, Morb)
153. Feb-01 01:50 PM: Discusses policy lynch. Votes Morbid-. - (ref: Bernk, Morb, PD)
184. Feb-02 08:54 PM: Analysis, and suspects. - (ref: everybody but AGM, Bernk)
187. Feb-02 10:00 PM: Cautionary advice to Josh re: BOT. - (ref: BOT, Josh)
219. Feb-03 05:38 PM: Responds to BOT, MW, JSH. Suspect list. Calls out TMB, MMY. Not as worried about Jaz now. - (ref: everybody but BernB, BRU, fwy, Gaw, Morb, PGB)
231. Feb-04 09:35 AM: PD's survey makes him very suspicious. - (ref: PD)
236. Feb-04 10:12 AM: PD's survey suspicious because it is manipulative. - (ref: PD, xplicit)
273. Feb-04 07:56 PM: Long response to PD. - (ref: AGM, BOT, Cait, Gaw, Josh, PD, TMB)
283. Feb-05 10:11 AM: Making up with PD - (ref: BOT, Josh, PD, TMB)
289. Feb-05 02:21 PM: there should be some suspensions shelled out after this one is done - (ref: nobody)
293. Feb-05 02:45 PM: Well. I'll be damned :/ - (ref: nobody)

EDIT: {SUMMARY: agrees with CAIT, survey results, a few more questions, very low level suspects - Josh, Mystic, Bruised}
{SUSPECT: Josh (more analysis expected)}
{SUSPECT: Mystic (surface-level vibe)}
{SUSPECT: Bruised (dowser for cits)}


[Edited 1 times, lastly by PlasteredDragon on February 06, 2010]

 
XplicitR
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posted February 06, 2010 06:52 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for XplicitR Click Here to Email XplicitR Send a private message to XplicitR Click to send XplicitR an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View XplicitR's Have/Want ListView XplicitR's Have/Want List
quote:
Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Caitiri:
A long note regarding PD...

I disagree with none of this--well except maybe the part about being eloquent. You're right I am just guessing like the rest of us, and all my patternistic methodologies are heuristics--they can fail. And you are right to be suspicious of me.

I've been crunching the information from the survey. The problem is apart from myself and BOT, pretty much nobody from the Morbid pile took it. Well fwy did, but only in a superficial sense, his answers were basically nonanswers and he might as well have skipped it. If I were the paranoid type, I'd say he did just enough so that he could say he responded.

It was good that ALL the non-MOR voters responded... they're all pretty cooperative. I've been comparing their responses and nothing major has jumped out at me. Here are the minor things (comments follow after list):

(1) MW was the only one who felt that pursuing the non-MOR pile was probably not going to be productive.

(2) XPR was the only one who volunteered to be lynched first.

(3) JAZ seemed to suggest fairly strongly that there were TWO wolves in the non-MOR pile (MW & XPR).

(4) The player with the least consistent set of answers was XPR.

(5) The player with the most consistent set of answers was JAZ.

On #1: funny thing is I partially agree with MW. We saw 3 wolves pile into one pile last game, and the Morbid- pile was HUGE. With all three wolves in that pile they'd still be hard to find. OTOH it's hard to miss the fact that both wolfkills have been in the MOR pile--you'd think if their buddies were in that pile they'd be less driven to reduce it's size.

At present I think the most likely spread is 2 in the MOR pile, and 1 outside the MOR pile.

On #2: While that would be admirable, if the populace agreed to lynch the pile, and he got to pick the order, there's no compelling reason for him to go first. Given the populace agreed in this hypothetical, it doesn't really matter if he goes first or last--he's supposed to be picking the order that is most likely to produce a wolf the earliest. Picking himself seems like going out of his way to look like a team player. That's just idle speculation on my part, though.

On #3: she seems to believe this pretty strongly given some of her other answers, in Q4 she was supposed to pick 2 players from the MOR pile as most likely cohorts of her prime non-MOR suspect (MW), one of her choices was XPR, who of course is also in the non-MOR pile. Her answer to the "assume all your suspicions are wrong" question was to again pick XPR.

While 2 wolves in such a small pile is believable, they'd be pretty exposed. It seems unlikely to me--not impossible but unlikely.

On #4: XPR's responses are a little odd. He felt the non-MOR pile was worth pursuing, but every time he had a choice in Q7 to pick the "most suspicious of 3" players, he never picked a non-MOR player... BRU, BOT, MMY, JSH, FWY... these were more suspicious than the non-MOR player they went up against in the survey.

On #5: Out of 7 opportunities to pick a non-MOR player as most suspicious, Jaz picked one 4 times, more than anyone else. Furthermore, using her answers from #7 to put players in order of suspiciousness (to her) the order produced exactly matches her answer to #3 (in what order should the non-MOR pile be taken out)--this wasn't true of any other player.

I'm not sure if we can draw useful conclusions from this info, but I thought it was interesting. Here are a few highly specific questions I'd like to see answered by specific people:

1. Bruised, in round 2 you suspected everyone in the non-MOR pile except for dakrum. Can you explain why you suspect MW & JAZ? Furthermore, can you give me your threat level assessment of Josh and Mystic?

2. Josh, you've had Mystic and Bruised on your suspect list in both R1 and R2. Can you explain why you suspect these two players?

3. Mystic, would you be willing to do a run down on all the other players and where you stand on each (with reasons)? If not, how about specifically Josh and Bruised?

4. XPR, of all the players over R1 and R2 you've had the shortest suspect list each round. Your suspicion appears to be highly targeted, thus your survey answers were the most interesting. I'd like to get your assessment of Bruised, Josh, Mystic, and Jaz.

5. JAZ, am I correct in my assessment that at the time you answered the survey, you felt there were 2 wolves in the non-MOR pile? Do you still feel that way? Asked to select likely cohorts for your prime suspect you chose XPR and BOT. Now that BOT is confirmed as a cit, and assuming that MW is still your top suspect, who do you think are his partners?

Finally, it's time for me to say who I've been watching out of the corner of my eye without pointing at them, although it's probably obvious from the above, Josh, Mystic, and Bruised.

Josh has a lot of reknown as one of the best mafia players on MOTL, and I've noted a relatively quiet, nonconfrontational, highly observant appearance to him. His suspect lists don't come with a lot of analysis, and I am a little put off by that. And frankly, he makes me nervous because of his rep--if he's a wolf, we'd definitely be at a disadvantage. I have no case against him tho... his game has appeared quite clean. I guess I'd feel better if I got a peek inside his brain.

Mystic is a cipher to me. All I get from him is a gut level vibe. Again, I'm not seeing anything that looks like analysis to me, and his suspect list has been vanishingly short. The vibe I get is a noncommittal, surface-level, going through the motions one. This is juxtaposed with a player who seemed extremely eager at game-start. Maybe it's just his style and I am unfamiliar with it so it makes me nervy. This is another player who I'd like to get a better feel for.

Bruised has been fairly quiet, and for the large part I haven't paid him much attention--which upon reflection makes me think I'm not doing my job and should know more. One thing about Bruised is his track record of calling cits--Morbid and BOT, both predicted as cits by Bruised. Could just be he's a sharp cookie... or it could be an investment for future cred. Either way I'd like to hear more from Bruised, and more about him. (Especially from XPR who's survey crunched answers point to the lowest level of suspecting confirmed cits among all the non-MOR players.)

I'm frustrated in that I don't have any really strong suspects right now--TMB is bailing, BOT was a cit, and the case on Cait was never strong. R3 is typically the round it which it makes sense to info-lynch me and I feel like not much of use will be learned since I don't have a strong case.

At the same time I have a very familiar gnawing sensation which I get when I feel like my subconscious has noticed something that my conscious mind has not. I've missed something--it might even be something obvious. WTH is it?

I have a shoot today so I will be away for most of the day. Hopefully when I return there will be something useful on the thread to help me identify some wolves, and then if you guys want to do a PD-info-lynch, I'm down with it... unless you think I've been seered already. Seems likely, esp if the seer is a regular.

That's another thing... over all the recent games of yore the seer has been getting whacked early. But not this time. Can we conclude anything about the wolves from that datum? Would they be newish or lower-tier players maybe?

There is definitely something I'm missing and it is bugging me. I'm going to have to re-read the thread. Also it probably can't hurt to review BOT and GAW since they've been confirmed. I haven't done so. I know BOT suspected me a lot but I think much of it was OMGUS type stuff. Here's the link lists if you want to review them too.

BOT:
017. Jan-24 08:45 AM: signed up - (ref: nobody)
091. Jan-30 11:00 AM: Posts notes. Top suspects PD (+6), B77 (+4), BernieB (+3), Morbid (+3). - (ref: everybody)
120. Jan-31 04:34 PM: Condolences to Bernek. Apologizes for "analysis post". Agrees with Morbid- vote. - (ref: Bernk, Morb, PD)
124. Jan-31 06:29 PM: Thinks Bernek's "Good Luck Cits" all but clears him. - (ref: PD)
126. Jan-31 07:20 PM: Argues his case for Bernek = cit. - (ref: Bernk)
130. Jan-31 09:20 PM: Josh is a d-bag. - (ref: Josh)
144. Feb-01 07:11 AM: Last post was friendly jab. Sending in vote. (For??) - (ref: nobody)
148. Feb-01 11:20 AM: Curious about old theory that if wolves don't kill strongest player, then strongest player is a wolf. - (ref: Bernk)
181. Feb-02 07:27 PM: main suspicion is between MasterWolf and XplicitR - (ref: AGM, MW, Morb, PD, xplicit)
185. Feb-02 09:12 PM: Argues with XPR. - (ref: AGM, Bernk, MW, Morb, xplicit)
197. Feb-03 09:45 AM: Responds to GAW & PD. - (ref: BOT, Gaw, Josh, PD, PGB)
212. Feb-03 02:40 PM: Masterwolf and/or Xpr are wolves, or a grand master wolf is trying to set them up. PD is type of player that could and would set that up - (ref: AGM, MW, PD, PGB, xplicit)
215. Feb-03 04:05 PM: Whatever, apparently I'm awful and I'm just going to lead the wolves to a win. Vote submitted. I'll let you figure out for whom. - (ref: nobody)
217. Feb-03 05:15 PM: <Snip> Snipping my own contemptuous post. - (ref: xplicit)
238. Feb-04 10:30 AM: Answers survey. - (ref: everybody but AGM, Morb, PGB)

Gawain:
004. Jan-20 08:51 PM: signed up - (ref: nobody)
026. Jan-27 02:31 PM: part 1, page 2 - (ref: Jaz)
046. Jan-28 09:02 PM: part 1, page 2 - (ref: PD)
061. Jan-29 01:10 PM: part 1, page 3 - (ref: nobody)
078. Jan-29 04:06 PM: Maybe wolves just needed a long time to decide? - (ref: Bernk, PD)
082. Jan-29 04:55 PM: provides rundown for MMY - (ref: everybody but AGM)
096. Jan-30 03:16 PM: Mildly suspicious of BOT. Inquires about policy lynch. - (ref: BOT, PD)
100. Jan-30 03:55 PM: grills MM - (ref: AGM)
104. Jan-30 04:12 PM: Agrees with MMY, but suggests waiting until later in the round. - (ref: Mystic)
111. Jan-31 03:39 AM: Condolences to Bernek. - (ref: Bernk)
139. Jan-31 11:45 PM: Agrees Bernek more likely cit. - (ref: BOT, Bernk, Morb)
153. Feb-01 01:50 PM: Discusses policy lynch. Votes Morbid-. - (ref: Bernk, Morb, PD)
184. Feb-02 08:54 PM: Analysis, and suspects. - (ref: everybody but AGM, Bernk)
187. Feb-02 10:00 PM: Cautionary advice to Josh re: BOT. - (ref: BOT, Josh)
219. Feb-03 05:38 PM: Responds to BOT, MW, JSH. Suspect list. Calls out TMB, MMY. Not as worried about Jaz now. - (ref: everybody but BernB, BRU, fwy, Gaw, Morb, PGB)
231. Feb-04 09:35 AM: PD's survey makes him very suspicious. - (ref: PD)
236. Feb-04 10:12 AM: PD's survey suspicious because it is manipulative. - (ref: PD, xplicit)
273. Feb-04 07:56 PM: Long response to PD. - (ref: AGM, BOT, Cait, Gaw, Josh, PD, TMB)
283. Feb-05 10:11 AM: Making up with PD - (ref: BOT, Josh, PD, TMB)
289. Feb-05 02:21 PM: there should be some suspensions shelled out after this one is done - (ref: nobody)
293. Feb-05 02:45 PM: Well. I'll be damned :/ - (ref: nobody)

EDIT: {SUMMARY: agrees with CAIT, survey results, a few more questions, very low level suspects - Josh, Mystic, Bruised}
{SUSPECT: Josh (more analysis expected)}
{SUSPECT: Mystic (surface-level vibe)}
{SUSPECT: Bruised (dowser for cits)}
[/QUOTE]

PD, while I do think you should cleanse the non-MOR pile, I do not find anyone in it overly suspicious. I pointed this out when I answered your question on the order of lynching players in it. There was no suspicion ranking, just activity ranking.

If I had my way, I would ask that everyone votes for Bruised. However, since many aren't reading the same kind of deception in his post that I did that doesn't sound likely to happen.

First thing is Bruised can go ahead and say what he wants. I have been saying this from the beginning of the round. I said that Morbid was likely a cit and hence I would vote for someone I found more suspicious even if it was based on another thread. Then with B-O-T, he was more clueless than he was a wolf. So what you are saying is he knew Morbid was a cit, yet he voted for him?

Josh - nothing really suspicious about him except for that one post I saw on the other thread. He is a good player and I know he is capable of bad things.

Mystic - no suspicion thus far.

Jaz - she rarely posts and usually keeps everything to herself. This is suspicious and its probably why she was so high on my list of players to axe in the non-MOR pile.

One last thing a PD lynch is idiotic. He is definitely one of the pillars that is giving us an advantage at the moment, not even if he is a wolf but because he spurs discussion. Frankly I would rather keep a PD wolf around (of course not for too long ) who is enticing discussion than an AGM cit who is just going around with a pickaxe. The wolves are obviously seer hunting right now so hopefully whoever our seer is can survive long enough to get us 3-4 names, and hopefully PD will be one of them.

 
BernieB
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posted February 06, 2010 08:16 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for BernieB Click Here to Email BernieB Send a private message to BernieB Click to send BernieB an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View BernieB's Have/Want ListView BernieB's Have/Want List
I still think that there was at least one wolf that was not in on Morbid's demise.
Dakrum - JoshSherman
Jazaray - TheMidnightBomber
MasterWolf - Jazaray
XplicitR - JoshSherman

My main suspicions are on Jazaray and MasterWolf. These two are the only singletons. My vote will be for one of these two, probably Jaz.

 
PlasteredDragon
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posted February 06, 2010 12:24 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for PlasteredDragon Click Here to Email PlasteredDragon Send a private message to PlasteredDragon Click to send PlasteredDragon an Instant MessageVisit PlasteredDragon's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by XplicitR:
So what you are saying is he knew Morbid was a cit, yet he voted for him?

Well he understood it was a policy lynch, so I don't think the vote itself was suspicious, but he predicted Morbid- would be revealed as a cit. In R2 he also predicted BOT was a cit. Either one of these would be not so noteworthy, but predicting two people as cits is somewhat noteworthy.
quote:
Originally posted by XplicitR:
One last thing a PD lynch is idiotic. He is definitely one of the pillars that is giving us an advantage at the moment, not even if he is a wolf but because he spurs discussion. Frankly I would rather keep a PD wolf around (of course not for too long ) who is enticing discussion than an AGM cit who is just going around with a pickaxe. The wolves are obviously seer hunting right now so hopefully whoever our seer is can survive long enough to get us 3-4 names, and hopefully PD will be one of them.

I agree with the latter sentiment... I dunno about all that pillar of the game stuff--feels like buddying--I don't mean to be ungrateful by making the observation, it was very sweet of you to say that, after all. Thanks!

And with that I'm off to my shoot. I'll be shooting a corporate function at http://www.backbaykings.com from 5 PM to 9 PM. Back late tonite. Wish me luck!

In the meantime, it would be great if the people I called out would respond. Thank you.

 
MagicMystic
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posted February 06, 2010 12:28 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for MagicMystic Click Here to Email MagicMystic Send a private message to MagicMystic Click to send MagicMystic an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
PD, I'll give you some answers to your question after the night kill.
 
JoshSherman
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posted February 06, 2010 01:58 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for JoshSherman Click Here to Email JoshSherman Send a private message to JoshSherman Click to send JoshSherman an Instant MessageVisit JoshSherman's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View JoshSherman's Trade Auction or SaleView JoshSherman's Trade Auction or Sale
quote:
Originally posted by MagicMystic:
PD, I'll give you some answers to your question after the night kill.

Perhaps I'm missing something, but I thought we're in day phase right now? We lynched B_o_T then the wolves killed gawain, meaning it's day phase, yes?

__________________
*MafiaBass*Joshweek*Letter Bombs!*Prices*Gatherer*Logout*No More Rickrolls!
“Reason is not automatic. Those who deny it cannot be conquered by it." -Ayn Rand

 
MagicMystic
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posted February 06, 2010 02:08 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for MagicMystic Click Here to Email MagicMystic Send a private message to MagicMystic Click to send MagicMystic an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
Cabin fever is making me delirious. You're absolutely right. And boy, does that make me look bad. Let me take a look at the recent posts while recovering from shoveling snow, and I'll post something.
 
MeddlingMage
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posted February 06, 2010 03:53 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for MeddlingMage Click Here to Email MeddlingMage Send a private message to MeddlingMage Click to send MeddlingMage an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
Montague is taking over for TMB.

~MM

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I am MeddlingMage...YOUR Motl Survivor 11 Champion and 2007 Captain N award winner, and I approve this siggy!

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PM me if you'd like a list emailed to you!

 
MagicMystic
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posted February 06, 2010 04:12 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for MagicMystic Click Here to Email MagicMystic Send a private message to MagicMystic Click to send MagicMystic an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
Still collecting my thoughts, but I'll post the people who I have opinions on. I will also state that I think the Gawain NK to me seemed like the w00fs thought he was seer, as his posts tended to follow a seer trend, rather than killing him because of suspicions or setup.

PD- I still disagree with the survey thing. I understand your stated purpose, but some of those questions didn't mesh with "making people think about other suspects". You could've done that by saying "everybody, post what you think about each person" without the other questions, especially the trios. Also, if you ARE a w00f, it would've been a great way to try to draw the seer out. That being said, I think it was more of a misguided effort than a w00f-move.

TMB- With the relatively quick night, my suspicion on TMB lessens somewhat. It is possible that he's a w00f, and because they knew he wouldn't participate, they just made the kill without him, but I have a feeling it would've taken longer.

Bernie- Bernie's last post raises all sorts of red flags to me. He says that he wants to lynch someone in the non-Morbid pile, which is fine. He then states the two people he'd vote for, but his reasoning is utterly nonsensical and has no further explanation. If he was newer, I could buy it, but this last post is ridiculous.

Bruised- Very hard to get a read on him. Not a whole lot of substance in his posts, but you already know that. His posts do follow a common w00f pattern (stating facts rather than opinions). I don't have a whole lot to add about him, other than I think if he's a w00f, TMB's w00fstock goes up as well, with Bruised asking for the replacement "so we don't have to have another policy lynch." I don't like the way he worded that. However, as a new player, all of that can be explained as being new.

Jaz- Quite frankly, she's playing the way she always does. I have no read on her one way or another.

Josh- Not getting a w00f vibe from him. I honestly don't have much more analysis on him than that. Unless I've missed a post going back, I don't understand where the Josh suspicion is coming from either, other than dakrum started the Josh for w00f campaign and people jumped on because there were few other people that were being called out.

The other players I don't have much of a read on right now. If I had to vote right now, it'd be Bernie, but I'm not set on it if something else comes up.

 
Jazaray
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posted February 06, 2010 08:19 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for Jazaray Click Here to Email Jazaray Send a private message to Jazaray Click to send Jazaray an Instant MessageVisit Jazaray's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by XplicitR:

If I had my way, I would ask that everyone votes for Bruised. However, since many aren't reading the same kind of deception in his post that I did that doesn't sound likely to happen.

I guess I just don't understand what you found suspicious about his post. Could you go into more detail?

Thanks,
Jazaray

__________________
A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick:
There was a nice lassie named Jaz
Many wished to have what she has,
A delicate face,
A soft warm embrace,
And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.

WeedIan: Jazaray is like MOTL's Mom.

PlasteredDragon
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posted February 07, 2010 12:39 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for PlasteredDragon Click Here to Email PlasteredDragon Send a private message to PlasteredDragon Click to send PlasteredDragon an Instant MessageVisit PlasteredDragon's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by JoshSherman:
Perhaps I'm missing something [...]

Perhaps you missed this?
quote:
Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Josh, you've had Mystic and Bruised on your suspect list in both R1 and R2. Can you explain why you suspect these two players?

EDIT: {SUMMARY: repeats call-out to Josh.}

[Edited 1 times, lastly by PlasteredDragon on February 07, 2010]
 
PlasteredDragon
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posted February 07, 2010 01:16 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for PlasteredDragon Click Here to Email PlasteredDragon Send a private message to PlasteredDragon Click to send PlasteredDragon an Instant MessageVisit PlasteredDragon's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by MagicMystic:
You could've done that by saying "everybody, post what you think about each person" without the other questions, especially the trios.

The purpose of the trios (safe to say now) is to monitor for players who are contradicting themselves. Let's say for example I ask a random player X, "who's most suspicious out of JSH, DAK, BB"? And he picks JSH. That could be rewritten JSH > (DAK, BB) because Josh in this example is more suspicious than dakrum or BernieB. If in turn this player says that BB > (FWY, MMY), and FWY > (MW, XPR), and MMY > (PD, XPR), the implication is that this player should find JSH very suspicious indeed:

JSH > BB > FWY > MW

If players were assigned a "suspicion point" for each level up in the chain of suspicion thus illustrated then JSH would have 4 points, BB would have 3, FWY & MMY would have 2, and DAK, MW, PD, and XPR would have 1. Therefore one might expect JSH to figure highly in this player's suspicion list. Right?

What if JSH doesn't appear on this player's suspicion list at all? This could mean two things: (1) the player hasn't really thought about JSH before, and asking the player to make specific comparisons forces him to think about them, or (2) the player is a wolf, who when presented with trios containing other wolves might be seeking to protect them, and by not seeing the trios in context (i.e. tell us what you think of ALL the other players), is making mistakes.

Of course a third possibility is it's just the limited list of trios being offered. Perhaps if that player were presented with (JSH, BRU, DAK) he'd pick BRU, or (JSH, CAI, DAK) he'd pick CAI. Obviously if I offered a list of all possible trios it would have been ridiculously long (2184 permutations), so I had to pick a spread that seemed good to me--a weak point for sure, but as I said this is just a heuristic.

quote:
Originally posted by MagicMystic:
Bernie- Bernie's last post raises all sorts of red flags to me. He says that he wants to lynch someone in the non-Morbid pile, which is fine. He then states the two people he'd vote for, but his reasoning is utterly nonsensical and has no further explanation. If he was newer, I could buy it, but this last post is ridiculous.

This is going to sound bad, but, I've never read a BB post I was satisfied with. They're always underdeveloped, and often don't seem to make much sense. But that is in-character for BernieB. Coming from someone like Liq or Bugger or ryan or MW or Montague or AGM or any players who have demonstrated an ability to form a cogent argument, that post would raise red flags for me too. This of course creates a problem for me: BernieB can pretty much say whatever he wants and I'm likely to write it off as Bernie being Bernie. This puts me in the unpleasant position having him permanently in the no-read column and only indicting or vindicating him in connection with the actions of other players. But we have several players that struggle with the formation of cogent arguments, and we can't just ask them not to play, so I don't see a way out of the dilemma.

Suffice it to say, if you think it voteworthy, you should vote it. I don't know what to think when it comes to Bernie.

{SUMMARY: Explains trios, thoughts on BernieB.}

[Edited 1 times, lastly by PlasteredDragon on February 07, 2010]

 
PlasteredDragon
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posted February 07, 2010 09:11 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for PlasteredDragon Click Here to Email PlasteredDragon Send a private message to PlasteredDragon Click to send PlasteredDragon an Instant MessageVisit PlasteredDragon's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
Is that... crickets?
 
Jazaray
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posted February 07, 2010 10:00 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for Jazaray Click Here to Email Jazaray Send a private message to Jazaray Click to send Jazaray an Instant MessageVisit Jazaray's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:

5. JAZ, am I correct in my assessment that at the time you answered the survey, you felt there were 2 wolves in the non-MOR pile? Do you still feel that way? Asked to select likely cohorts for your prime suspect you chose XPR and BOT. Now that BOT is confirmed as a cit, and assuming that MW is still your top suspect, who do you think are his partners?

I really wasn't paying attention to what piles they were in, I just went with whom I felt was more suspicious to me. But, yes, I do still feel that it could be MW and XPR. I still feel that XPR is attacking people that he doesn't normally attack, because of some need to be arguing with someone in order to stay IC. In fact, I think he's also been baiting me, with the whole "Jaz rarely posts" thing, even though it's certainly not true. I think, now he hasn't got BOT to argue with, and no B77, he's trying to draw me into it, with Bruised as a backup, in case I don't take his bait. Which I've decided that I'm not going to do anymore. I know how I post and if people want to lie about it, let them.

As for who the other wolf might be... I'm lost. I have no idea. I was kinda leaning toward TMB, because, as you pointed out, his not being available could have been the reason the kills took so long. But, I don't want to accuse someone solely based on the time the kills took. And that's all I would have had for him.


Thanks,
Jazaray

__________________
A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick:
There was a nice lassie named Jaz
Many wished to have what she has,
A delicate face,
A soft warm embrace,
And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.

WeedIan: Jazaray is like MOTL's Mom.

XplicitR
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posted February 07, 2010 01:09 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for XplicitR Click Here to Email XplicitR Send a private message to XplicitR Click to send XplicitR an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View XplicitR's Have/Want ListView XplicitR's Have/Want List
quote:
Originally posted by Jazaray:
I really wasn't paying attention to what piles they were in, I just went with whom I felt was more suspicious to me. But, yes, I do still feel that it could be MW and XPR. I still feel that XPR is attacking people that he doesn't normally attack, because of some need to be arguing with someone in order to stay IC. In fact, I think he's also been baiting me, with the whole "Jaz rarely posts" thing, even though it's certainly not true. I think, now he hasn't got BOT to argue with, and no B77, he's trying to draw me into it, with Bruised as a backup, in case I don't take his bait. Which I've decided that I'm not going to do anymore. I know how I post and if people want to lie about it, let them.

As for who the other wolf might be... I'm lost. I have no idea. I was kinda leaning toward TMB, because, as you pointed out, his not being available could have been the reason the kills took so long. But, I don't want to accuse someone solely based on the time the kills took. And that's all I would have had for him.


Thanks,
Jazaray



You are lost. I am not baiting you into anything. You are trying to cleanse the non-MOR pile by practically getting rid of everyone else in there except you, and possibly dakrum. Like I said before I DO NOT NEED to argue with someone to be IC. Just like you DO NOT NEED to be overly defensive or post infrequently. BOT came after me, I did not go after him, so if you want to fabricate stories in order to hide your true intentions please at least have a little more creativity. I have no read on you except to know that you are usually inactive especially in the later aspects of the game. Something that benefits you when you are a wolf.


How is Bruised my backup? He is the person who I think is most likely to be a wolf at this stage of the game. I am meanwhile trying to figure out who I think his 2 partners in crime may be. In Post 239 of the previous thread, he states that he doesn't think BOT is a wolf but he finds him more suspicious than anyone else? He then states "I am highly suspicious of the MW/Jaz argument as Jaz comes off way too defensive and MW way too abrasive/offensive.". He basically gives too much information without analysis and then tries to ask the people as a whole about me and MW and then says you know what I will just vote for one of XPR and MW, despite his post talking about how suspicious he finds everyone else. You also never responded to this post Jaz despite being brought up in it, how come?

 
XplicitR
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posted February 07, 2010 01:15 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for XplicitR Click Here to Email XplicitR Send a private message to XplicitR Click to send XplicitR an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View XplicitR's Have/Want ListView XplicitR's Have/Want List
Here is the pile analysis for Round 2:

XplicitR:
Battle_of_Twits
Bruised
fwybwed

TheMidnightBomber (now Montague):
Dakrum
MagicMystic

PlasteredDragon:
Caitiri

Battle_of_Twits:
BernieB (mistake on GM's part)
Gawain
JoshSherman
MasterWolf
PlasteredDragon

MasterWolf:
Jazaray

Bruised:
XplicitR

NONE:
TheMidnightBomber (now Montague)

Look how tight these votes were as the noose could have easily been around my neck. As you can see from comparing round 1's votes to round 2's votes, the only players who have not voted for a player who has been confirmed to be a cit so far are:

XplicitR (me), Jazaray, Dakrum, MasterWolf

So this means everyone in the non-MOR pile were in non-BOT piles last round as well. So do we start cleansing it and see where it gets us? If we do maybe we should develop a strategy so that while ALL 4 (yes Jaz that means you too) of the players in this pile will be removed the seer can go and leer at the other remaining cits in order to ensure that someone who is seered is not killed (from this round on that is). In order to show that this is not some sort of wolf strategy I will volunteer to go first.

 
PlasteredDragon
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posted February 07, 2010 01:58 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for PlasteredDragon Click Here to Email PlasteredDragon Send a private message to PlasteredDragon Click to send PlasteredDragon an Instant MessageVisit PlasteredDragon's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by XplicitR:
...I have no read on you except to know that you are usually inactive especially in the later aspects of the game. Something that benefits you when you are a wolf...

As someone who keeps hard data on each player over multiple games, I find it curious that you keep repeating that when it isn't true. Jaz becomes more active in the late game, not less. Mafia-9 was an exception, not the rule. The last time Jaz was a wolf that I was witness to was WW6, and she became very active in the last 3 rounds and hovered around average for the other rounds.

I checked WW7 where she was a cit and saw the same profile. What games are you basing your assessment on? Strictly Mafia-9?

I dunno if she is a wolf this game, she could be, but she doesn't follow the post profile you are saying she does.

 
MeddlingMage
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posted February 07, 2010 02:10 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for MeddlingMage Click Here to Email MeddlingMage Send a private message to MeddlingMage Click to send MeddlingMage an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Is that... crickets?

Votes due tomorrow!

~MM

__________________
I am MeddlingMage...YOUR Motl Survivor 11 Champion and 2007 Captain N award winner.

MafiaBass (9:48:50 PM): sorry my keyboard is sticky
MeddlingEric (9:48:56 PM): ewwww
MafiaBass (9:51:43 PM): FTR, I did not show you my e-pee-pee

 

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