quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:

If you never broke the tie in the first place none of this would have happened.

---

Yes, if I hadn't broken the tie and you were voting Monty like you claimed at that time then this wouldn't have happened. BUT, I did break the tie, and your play after I broke the tie is what I am looking at and what you're ignoring.

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:
I missed Montague's switch which would put me back to the number one spot of suspicion.

---

What I want to know is how you missed Monty's switch but managed to see mine and Jaz's. That is what I'm asking about, that is the behavior of yours that I'm comparing to my own behavior which you find so suspicious.

I think I'm beginning to understand how frustrated PD must get when he spends so much time on a post and then it is ignored.

-Caitiri

quote:

---

Originally posted by Montague:
Okay Caitiri, if you feel he is a wolf then show us some evidence.

And I don't mean go thru my old posts where I was trying to make a point for him and regurgitate my own ideas. I mean, show me why fwy is a wolf.

---

Right now I'm as sure that fwy is a wolf as I am that he is a cit. My post merely said that I didn't think your reasons for claiming him a citizen were valid, and I asked if there was anything else to it. I will assume from your response that there is nothing else.

-Caitiri

Suspect: Jaz

I apoligize for saying you were directing traffic. It's just when I got really active in the game, at the time it felt that you were more asking questions then posting your suspicions. Going back thru the thread, you did play a good game and you were very consistent.

Suspect: fwy

I pointed out earlier that I thought he was very out of character. He didnt blow up like he usually does and get himself lynched. I know other players, including jaz, noticed this too. Now, last game it seemed like he was trying to do the same strategy, but eventually got out of character and got lynched. Could it be that this game he just finished what he started? The most odd thing that I came across was fwy's refusal to answer PD's questions.

Suspect: Caitiri

Reading thru, it started with Caitiri going against the policy lynch, and then "randomly" picking morbid anyways. PD brought up a good theory, just about all of us would have just rerolled anyways. This was very odd. Then he didnt vote for BB, because he accidentially sent it to Jaz. Umm, okay. he missed two votes, which I can't say anything really because I missed a vote also, but MW pointed out that he did this the last game when he was a wolf. Then there was the casual tie ending vote.

Right now, I have to vote for Caitiri. He has more mess ups then anybody else and I have to go with that considering I really suspect everybody.

But I have til tmrw to decide.... Im jes upset with him for messing up the tie breaker...

If i could get MM to proove my votes were put thru and I had switched 3-4 times lol... I even apologized hahaa.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Caitiri:
All of that being said, here's my question. The initial tie was going to be between fwy and Monty. First of all, if I am the last wolf then why would I have tried to stop this from happening? A tie between two cits means a cit dies no matter what. The only person who would want to stop the tie is the last wolf if and only if he was one of the people in the tie. Now the person who appears to have attempted this by not switching as he claimed he was going to was fwy. By not switching to Monty, fwy engineered what would have been a tie that included himself into a solid vote for Monty.

So fwy, why didn't you switch to Monty like you said you were going to?

-Caitiri

---

Alright, I'm going to call myself out on this one since I just realized a huge error I made. I claimed "By not switching to Monty, fwy engineered what would have been a tie that included himself into a solid vote for Monty." In reality, by not voting Monty in this scenario fwy would have been the one being lynched -- not sure what I was thinking when I posted this.

I am starting to lean toward fwy being a cit, but I have to finish reading (currently halfway through the first thread). I would still like fwy's response as to how he missed Monty's switch to Bruised. I believe he switched to MW, but it doesn't make sense why.

-Caitiri

EDIT: The fact that no one caught my error that I pointed out here makes me wonder if anyone is even reading what I write.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Caitiri:
One point that was raised at the beginning of this game with regards to the R0 AGM kill was the question of whether someone who was familiar with his play last game, and especially someone in the ZC last game, would have have killed him, since he would have most likely been lynched first round anyway (note that I am inferring all of this from what was said this game...I didn't follow last game at all). Bernek played last game and certainly knew AGM would probably get lynched eventually (as evinced by his post after the kill on pg3 of the first thread, quoted below), although he wasn't in the ZC so perhaps he didn't know how soon that would happen. The final ZC list from last game (from PD early in the first thread) was: PD, ryan2754, Gawain, MasterWolf, Zakman86, XplicitR, fwybwed, Montague, and dakrum. So Bernek knew and TMB probably didn't, with the wolf leader being the question mark. Of the players remaining (not counting Monty since he wasn't playing R0) fwy is the only one who was in the ZC, and I'm not sure if TMB or Jaz played that game. Given Bernek's post, we know that the wolves at least had some knowledge regarding AGM's character and likelihood of being lynched. So the the question is, was it the wolf leader's plan to try and make himself look less suspicious by lynching AGM (meaning that he was in last game or, more likely, ZC), or did the wolf leader not have the knowledge about AGM when making the kill? If the former, fwy seems the obvious choice. If the latter, any of myself, Jaz, or TMB/Monty are better options for head wolf.

My first inclination, before I saw Bernek's post, was that it was more likely all three wolves were players not in the ZC last game. When I came across Bernek's post, however, I began to second guess myself. Obviously the wolves had some knowledge that AGM would probably be lynched, making the kill a poor choice unless they're specifically trying to manipulate the villagers through it. This can be seen in Bernek's post where he seems to have been trying to point us toward the ZC players, ie the ones that wouldn't be expected to make that kill. This being in R1, I think this leads me to think that those people he was leading us toward are most likely innocent, which is a point for fwy being a villager. I am interested in what others think though, since this all boils down to one big game of WIFOM.

Perhaps fwy and Monty could clarify more what happened in last game and the ZC that led to the vendetta against AGM, and how the views of the players in the ZC might differ (or not) from other players in the game (and not in the ZC). I have no knowledge of it other than what I've seen in this game. Were TMB and Jaz in that game?

-Caitiri

---

Nobody going to give any input on this?

-Caitiri

quote:

---

Originally posted by Caitiri:
Alright, I'm going to call myself out on this one since I just realized a huge error I made. I claimed "By not switching to Monty, fwy engineered what would have been a tie that included himself into a solid vote for Monty." In reality, by not voting Monty in this scenario fwy would have been the one being lynched -- not sure what I was thinking when I posted this.

I am starting to lean toward fwy being a cit, but I have to finish reading (currently halfway through the first thread). I would still like fwy's response as to how he missed Monty's switch to Bruised. I believe he switched to MW, but it doesn't make sense why.

-Caitiri

---

Thats just it Dude...

I missed it, there was so much switching going on and with MM ready to announce the votes looming, I rushed...

I only read the first part of the thread on monty and I jumped to vote for MW as it would have been a tie... I failed in the reading department of this game, and am beating myself up over it...

In regards to your input that you want:

I made it a point to note the ZC cuz I felt the R0 Kill of AGM was back lash against for his play from the previous Mafia game. And yes I was in the ZC.

He was raising suspicion on whole lot of people and he was wrong about the majority or maybe all of them. Some talked of his play in ZC and came down on him pretty hard.

But no one is really that good at this game ever...

At the beginning of this game some noted why would he be killed as he would have been lynched and yes he would have... the HWW shredded him. Jaz and I were the only players left in this game that were in that game with AGM.

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:

Thats just it Dude...

I missed it, there was so much switching going on and with MM ready to announce the votes looming, I rushed...

I only read the first part of the thread on monty and I jumped to vote for MW as it would have been a tie... I failed in the reading department of this game, and am beating myself up over it...

In regards to your input that you want:

I made it a point to note the ZC cuz I felt the R0 Kill of AGM was back lash against for his play from the previous Mafia game. And yes I was in the ZC.

He was raising suspicion on whole lot of people and he was wrong about the majority or maybe all of them. Some talked of his play in ZC and came down on him pretty hard.

But no one is really that good at this game ever...

At the beginning of this game some noted why would he be killed as he would have been lynched and yes he would have... the HWW shredded him. Jaz and I were the only players left in this game that were in that game with AGM.

---

Thanks for your response to my questions. Perhaps consider that I made a similar mistake, not knowing when MM was going to post votes and not reading closely enough about what was happening. I'm just finishing the first thread, so I'll post more when I get through this one.

-Caitiri

-Caitiri

quote:

---

Originally posted by Montague:
Suspect: Caitiri

Reading thru, it started with Caitiri going against the policy lynch, and then "randomly" picking morbid anyways. PD brought up a good theory, just about all of us would have just rerolled anyways. This was very odd. Then he didnt vote for BB, because he accidentially sent it to Jaz. Umm, okay. he missed two votes, which I can't say anything really because I missed a vote also, but MW pointed out that he did this the last game when he was a wolf. Then there was the casual tie ending vote.

Right now, I have to vote for Caitiri. He has more mess ups then anybody else and I have to go with that considering I really suspect everybody.

---

Before I go to bed I'd like to respond to this.

First of all, with regard to my random vote first round I will direct you back to my defense then. There is really nothing I can add to it. I'll sum it up here for those who don't want to go looking:

As a wolf, what I did would have been downright stupid. I knew it was going to garner suspicion, but I had told myself that I was going to roll a die and I neglected to consider the possibility that it might end up Morbid. In the future I might weight any die roll based on my suspicions, but I did not do that when I rolled the die and once it was done I felt that I had to stick with it. Personally, I believe this would be incredibly stupid to do as a wolf. As a wolf you must inherently lie, and following through like I did, when it was obvious it would be seen as suspicious, simply wouldn't make sense. As a wolf I would have rerolled, or been voting someone for a different reason. Only as a cit would I have followed through like I did.

Second, in regards to the vote I accidentally sent to Jaz, I was in a hurry and did accidentally send it to Jaz. I believe that between Jaz and myself we confirmed that it was sent to her. The only thing to question then is whether I did it on purpose or by accident. My question then would be why, as a wolf, would I have done this on purpose? It serves no purpose to do so, since all it really does is bring me out in the open and call suspicion down on me. Likewise, what purpose does it serve as a cit? If my goal was not to vote (especially as a wolf), then I simply would have told MM that my vote was NONE. That way I submit a vote while making it seem like I haven't. Given this, I think it is obvious that I did it accidentally, which could have happened as either a wolf or a citizen. I don't think there is anything else I can really say regarding this. So all I can show is that I did send it to Jaz, it was accidental, but that doesn't say anything about my identity.

Third, in regards to my missed vote. I can't prove to you that I actually missed that vote. Indeed, like I said above, telling MM that my vote is NONE as a wolf is a strategy that I used in the passed. MM counts it as the wolf submitting their vote, but when he displays votes it says that they didn't vote. My defense here is the same as it was when I addressed this earlier. Simply, why would I do this? No-voting is a very specific wolf strategy that, in my opinion, would have made no sense to use at that point in the game. It is a strategy that is useful when people have already forgotten about you and you are simply trying to fall off the radar. In addition, I believe it is most useful when other wolves are still around to manipulate the citizens. Choosing not to vote as a wolf goes hand-in-hand with not posting anymore. No-voting while still posting is simply stupid...all it does is raise suspicion. I was already falling under some suspicion at this point. If I wanted to stay under the radar I would have done my best to post meaningful (though perhaps misleading) posts at a decent interval and keep under the radar, and vote to make sure a cit is lynched.

If you want to argue that I did all of these things BECAUSE I 'wouldn't' do them as a wolf then fine, I can't argue against that. Personally, I don't think I'm bold enough or good enough at this game to attempt something like that, but it's impossible to prove until the end of the game.

-Caitiri

EDIT: And what's to say it's the wolf that will have made the most mistakes? Because I played poorly I must be the wolf?

quote:

---

Originally posted by Caitiri:
Before I go to bed I'd like to respond to this.

First of all, with regard to my random vote first round I will direct you back to my defense then. There is really nothing I can add to it. I'll sum it up here for those who don't want to go looking:

As a wolf, what I did would have been downright stupid. I knew it was going to garner suspicion, but I had told myself that I was going to roll a die and I neglected to consider the possibility that it might end up Morbid. In the future I might weight any die roll based on my suspicions, but I did not do that when I rolled the die and once it was done I felt that I had to stick with it. Personally, I believe this would be incredibly stupid to do as a wolf. As a wolf you must inherently lie, and following through like I did, when it was obvious it would be seen as suspicious, simply wouldn't make sense. As a wolf I would have rerolled, or been voting someone for a different reason. Only as a cit would I have followed through like I did.

---

Could it be you are settin us up for future analysis. Such "obvious" mistakes...You stated we had a better chance at lynching a random WW over Morbid, you random rolled and came up with his name I would have rerolled....cause as a Villager I would not want that early suspicion on me period....Even PD stated how many of Villagers would have naturally just rerolled if we believed in Morbid been a Villager.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Caitiri:
Second, in regards to the vote I accidentally sent to Jaz, I was in a hurry and did accidentally send it to Jaz. I believe that between Jaz and myself we confirmed that it was sent to her. The only thing to question then is whether I did it on purpose or by accident. My question then would be why, as a wolf, would I have done this on purpose? It serves no purpose to do so, since all it really does is bring me out in the open and call suspicion down on me. Likewise, what purpose does it serve as a cit? If my goal was not to vote (especially as a wolf), then I simply would have told MM that my vote was NONE. That way I submit a vote while making it seem like I haven't. Given this, I think it is obvious that I did it accidentally, which could have happened as either a wolf or a citizen. I don't think there is anything else I can really say regarding this. So all I can show is that I did send it to Jaz, it was accidental, but that doesn't say anything about my identity.

---

Didn't you get a NONE in this game....

Maybe you did vote "NONE" At the end of the game we will have to clarify with MM if this is a valid vote...as i did not know this was a valid strategy for anyone. MW also stated that you did this in a previous game. Tho when you voted NONE or Non Vote was in, it was a tie...
and you stated a vote Xpr at that time.

You replied to MW in regards to your NONE vote stating this:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Caitiri:
Yeah, that was a strategy we used when it made sense to do so. Essentially I stopped posting and voting and just fell off the radar. In this case that would make no sense as a wolf, especially considering that people already suspect me. That strategy works when everyone is focused on other people, and is best when there is at least one other wolf remaining to continuing manipulating the crowd. It would make no sense to attempt that strategy in this case. My missed votes are solely due to my own oversight, once PMing to the wrong person when I was in a rush, and once thinking I had already submitted my vote.

I'm going to wait and see the verdict on Monty/XPR before trying to draw any more conclusions. I've voted for XPR.

-Caitiri

---

I dont like this phrase it sticks out...

and not cuz I bolded it hahaa

quote:

---

Originally posted by Caitiri:
Third, in regards to my missed vote. I can't prove to you that I actually missed that vote. Indeed, like I said above, telling MM that my vote is NONE as a wolf is a strategy that I used in the passed. MM counts it as the wolf submitting their vote, but when he displays votes it says that they didn't vote. My defense here is the same as it was when I addressed this earlier. Simply, why would I do this? No-voting is a very specific wolf strategy that, in my opinion, would have made no sense to use at that point in the game. It is a strategy that is useful when people have already forgotten about you and you are simply trying to fall off the radar. In addition, I believe it is most useful when other wolves are still around to manipulate the citizens. Choosing not to vote as a wolf goes hand-in-hand with not posting anymore. No-voting while still posting is simply stupid...all it does is raise suspicion. I was already falling under some suspicion at this point. If I wanted to stay under the radar I would have done my best to post meaningful (though perhaps misleading) posts at a decent interval and keep under the radar, and vote to make sure a cit is lynched.[/b]

---

You were hardly ever suspected in this game...maybe you were mentioned but as you say why you Missed and non voted while posting would deter the suspicion, as you stated that you did intend to vote during all these issues. so that nulls the suspicion anyone may have had on you due to error in the past.

Your vote to Jaz instead of MM - Accidental, you had explained and even post a Picture of your post to Jaz.

If I knew you could do this I would post all of my vote changes from the last round. How did you do this anyways...

Your None vote - you claimed to have sent...but then fessed up that you never did send at all....

No one really batted an eye about all this till now in you last post...I decided to look into it.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Caitiri:
If you want to argue that I did all of these things BECAUSE I 'wouldn't' do them as a wolf then fine, I can't argue against that. Personally, I don't think I'm bold enough or good enough at this game to attempt something like that, but it's impossible to prove until the end of the game.

-Caitiri

EDIT: And what's to say it's the wolf that will have made the most mistakes? Because I played poorly I must be the wolf

---

all this "If you were a Wolf"!!!!

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:

And how do you do this pics of your PMs

---

That one I can answer. You go to your PM box, open the PM and push the "print screen" button. Then paste it into like.. Paint or something.

Thanks,
Jazaray

__________________
A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick:
There was a nice lassie named Jaz
Many wished to have what she has,
A delicate face,
A soft warm embrace,
And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.

Vote for Monty at 3:55PM

Vote on Bruised at 4:14PM

Vote on MW at 4:20 PM

-Caitiri

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:
Could it be you are settin us up for future analysis. Such "obvious" mistakes...You stated we had a better chance at lynching a random WW over Morbid, you random rolled and came up with his name I would have rerolled....cause as a Villager I would not want that early suspicion on me period....Even PD stated how many of Villagers would have naturally just rerolled if we believed in Morbid been a Villager.

Didn't you get a NONE in this game....

Maybe you did vote "NONE" At the end of the game we will have to clarify with MM if this is a valid vote...as i did not know this was a valid strategy for anyone. MW also stated that you did this in a previous game. Tho when you voted NONE or Non Vote was in, it was a tie...
and you stated a vote Xpr at that time.

You replied to MW in regards to your NONE vote stating this:

I dont like this phrase it sticks out...

and not cuz I bolded it hahaa

You were hardly ever suspected in this game...maybe you were mentioned but as you say why you Missed and non voted while posting would deter the suspicion, as you stated that you did intend to vote during all these issues. so that nulls the suspicion anyone may have had on you due to error in the past.

Your vote to Jaz instead of MM - Accidental, you had explained and even post a Picture of your post to Jaz.

If I knew you could do this I would post all of my vote changes from the last round. How did you do this anyways...

Your None vote - you claimed to have sent...but then fessed up that you never did send at all....

No one really batted an eye about all this till now in you last post...I decided to look into it.

all this "If you were a Wolf"!!!!

And how do you do this pics of your PMs

---

Quite frankly fwy, I don't even understand what you're saying with most of this. I think the only part that makes sense is the "I don't like the phrase that sticks out" although it doesn't make sense to me why. Please elucidate.

-Caitiri

PS -- Big post still in the works.

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:

Vote on MW at 10:09AM

Vote for Monty at 3:55PM

Vote on Bruised at 4:14PM

Vote on MW at 4:20 PM

Hope this helps....and Thanks Jaz...

---

Just wondering.. what was the point of this? Do I need to post pics of my votes too?

Thanks,
Jazaray

__________________
A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick:
There was a nice lassie named Jaz
Many wished to have what she has,
A delicate face,
A soft warm embrace,
And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Jazaray:
Just wondering.. what was the point of this? Do I need to post pics of my votes too?

Thanks,
Jazaray

---

Not to mention the timing of your votes compared to the switches that were posted in game do not match with the story you told earlier. You switched to MW before Jaz ever declared for Bruised.

-Caitiri

I believe the head wolf is TMB/Monty.

1. Initial wolf kill lag time.
This has been a constant point of discussion this game. How much information can we draw from the lag time? Was it a wolf strategy or because the head wolf was absent or inexperienced? I believe that the extreme lag time for the first kill was not a wolf strategy, but due simply to the fact that the head wolf was AWOL. Perhaps delays later in the game can be attributed to the wolves trying to continue the lag in a strategic manner, but I do not believe this is the case for the very first kill. Perhaps most interesting is what the known wolves had to say about this. Here is Dakrum's response to PD's survey:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Dakrum:
5. I was under the impression that the whole notion of a silent player or newer player being the leader was a bit premature. There are players here who could get away with murder by doing this and I don't think this side has been considered. The possibility is pretty likely if you ask me.

---

Dakrum appears to be trying to displace suspicion from new or absent players, claiming the lag to be a wolf strategy. I already stated that I do not believe this is the case, and I think Dakrum's response is even more interesting with regard to his posted suspicions throughout the game. I think we will all agree that TMB was one of the most absent players. I think he had less than 5 posts before he was replaced. From very early on Dakrum began posting his suspicion of TMB due to his absence, contrary to his response to PD's survey. A few pages ago I posted that I thought this helped clear TMB, since I didn't think Dakrum would have come down hard on a fellow wolf at that time. I have since reconsidered this, both based on my own observations and comments made by others regarding this. I now believe that, as a wolf, Dak was setting up for when he thought TMB would be lynched. His early suspicion of TMB would have helped clear him if TMB ended up being a wolf, and TMB's lack of participation was dangerous enough that, on the off chance Dak ended up starting a wagon on him, it would have been worth it.

One argument that Monty has made is that TMB is not the only one who fits the wolf lag. Let's look at his post:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Montague:
Are you serious with this?

So I am the only person who is a suspect because of lag time?

Masterwolfs first post was 7 hrs before the kill was announced

Your first post was 5 hrs before the kill was announced

Fwy's was 6 hrs after the first kill was announced

Caitiri's was 2 hours before the first kill was announced

Jaz's was an hour and a half after the first kill was announced

And because TMB waited until the next day to make his first post, he is the one who is a suspect?

How does that make any sense? So he sent in his first kill, but didnt think to come into the thread and make a post?

You realize that MM doesnt just wait around and the second a kill is sent in he updates the thread right? So the head wolf would have sent in his kill and posted on the thread. Probally something that makes it look like he is a little irritated by the time it took for the kill to get in, and then as soon as MM signed in and had the kill he posted it. It could have been any one of us if you are going off of lag time

---

Now lets take a look at a summary of all of the posts between role assignment and the first kill.

POST LIST FROM ROLE ASSIGNMENT:
January 27, 5:55 PM - MM posts that roles have been assigned
January 27, 6:07 PM - Mystic
January 27, 6:11 PM - PD
January 27, 6:13 PM - Mystic
January 27, 6:17 PM - Josh
January 27, 6:33 PM - Mystic
January 27, 6:38 PM - AGM
January 27, 6:43 PM - MM
January 27, 6:44 PM - PD
January 27, 7:09 PM - Josh
January 28, 3:56 AM - PD
January 28, 8:29 AM - B77
January 28, 8:35 AM - PD
January 28, 3:37 PM - MM, "Wnenever you're ready werewolves."
January 28, 5:00 PM - PD
January 28, 9:02 PM - Gawain
January 28, 9:50 PM - PD
January 28, 10:12 PM - AGM
January 28, 10:18 PM - Mystic
January 28, 10:29 PM - Josh
January 28, 10:42 PM - AGM
January 28, 10:44 PM - Josh
January 28, 11:19 PM - PD
January 29, 12:40 AM - Caitiri
January 29, 7:19 AM - MW
January 29, 8:44 AM - fwybwed
January 29, 9:22 AM - Bruised
January 29, 1:06 PM - MM, still no kill
January 29, 1:07 PM - MW
January 29, 1:10 PM - PD
January 29, 1:10 PM - Gawain
January 29, 1:15 PM - AGM
January 29, 1:20 PM - Mystic
January 29, 1:29 PM - PD
January 29, 1:34 PM - MW
January 29, 1:44 PM - PD
January 29, 1:45 PM - Mystic
January 29, 2:15 PM - MM, werewolf kill
.
January 30, 03:55 PM - Jaz makes her first post
.
January 30, 07:54 AM - TMB makes his first post
.
January 30, 03:10 PM - BernieB makes his first post

Monty claimed:
MW's first post was 7 hours before the first kill.
Bruised's first post was 5 hours before the first kill.
Fwy's first post was 6 hours before the first frkill.
Cait's first post was 2 hours before the first kill.
Jaz's first post was 1.5 hours before the first kill.
TMB didn't post until the next day.

The truth:
MW posted 3 times between assignment and kill. The first was 7 hours prior to the kill.
Bruised posted 1 time between assignment and kill, 5 hours prior.
Fwy posted 1 time between assignment and kill, 6 hours prior.
Cait posted 1 time between assignment and kill, 11.5 hours prior (not 2, as Monty claimed).
Jaz did not post before the first kill.
TMB posted the day after the first kill.

Additionally:
B77 (wolf) posted 1.5 days before the first kill.
BB (wolf) did not post before the first kill, and posted 1 day after.

First of all, we can see that Monty made some mistakes with his post with regards to mine and Jaz's posting. Second, based on MM's posting times we know the kill had to have come between 1:06PM and 2:15PM. Monty's argument that the wolf would have PMed the kill and then posted is quite simply false. The only people who posted between 1PM and 2PM are all confirmed citizens. This confirms that the head wolf did not post at the same time he PMed the kill. While he could have posted prior to MM's "Still no kill" post, I find it extremely unlikely. If he had, I believe the kill would have come sooner. That means we are left with two possibilities, Jaz and TMB. I believe it is more likely TMB than Jaz based on other reasons. Indeed, I think this is one of the biggest hurdles Monty has had to overcome, and the post I quoted above was his attempt. He has to address this to avoid being lynched. Now, let's take a look at another point where he addresses it:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Montague:
Honestly, if you people keep voting me based off of TMB, then the wolf is going to win. period. There are so many better cases then the fact that TMB didnt play much at the beginning.

---

What? Why shouldn't we be basing our suspicions of you off of TMB's behavior? You took his role, we can't look at your character's play over the course of the entire game without looking at TMB. And I believe your claim of there being "so many better cases" is simply misdirection. The lag at the beginning of the game is a strong indicator, as much as you want us to ignore it.

Not to mention:

quote:

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Originally posted by Montague:
I realize the lag time is a good indicator, but by that almost everybody is a suspect. Guess what? We only have 2 more votes. You are going to have to go off of other tells.

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So the lag time is both a good indicator, and not a good case. And I have already addressed the claim that almost anybody is a suspect based on lag.

quote:

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Originally posted by fwybwed:
I just replied and made an observation...you have replied to my placing a vote for you and clearly stated your concern for the information I had provided. I think its to bad you had to come in this game late and under scrutiny, but I dont think we should allow TMB's nonactiveness slide. Im thinking he knew he was going to be lynched, then got replaced. And I did state that im not in favor of replacements.

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I agree with this. TMB thought he would be lynched and the wolves tried to play around this (see my argument with Dak above). Monty coming in for TMB doesn't mean we dismiss TMB's behavior.

2. Defensiveness, empty arguments, manipulation
Montague has done a good job of defending himself, but re-reading the thread has caused something to jump out at me. He keeps using statments such as 'blowing the game for the cits' and 'giving the game to the wolf', as well as using a very dismissive style ("but whatever. If you guys think this is the best thing for the cits then go ahead and do it.") to try and displace suspicion. In addition, for the past few rounds he has forced a "him or me" situation, first with XPR, then with fwy.

quote:

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Originally posted by Montague:
I'm going to switch my vote to Xpr, knowing that it is going to leave me open to being lynched by jumping off bruised. To be clear, I obviously am not jumping on a band wagon, and I still suspect bruised just as much. I am doing it because this round it needs to be me or him because it is going to go nowhere fast with us here. Leaving both of us in this game is only going to hurt the cits because it will be nothing but a fight back and forth.

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Honestly, I don't see how this ever left Monty open to being lynched for jumping off Bruised. Despite his claim of not bandwagoning that seems like just what he's doing, and forcing a 'him or me' situation with other suspicious cits gives him the best chance of arguing his way out of the noose.

quote:

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Originally posted by Montague:
With this post XpR, assuming that you are not the wolf, it is still bad because you basically just gave the wolf and easy bandwagon to jump on that you will gain zero information from. I get killed and we discover what? Oh that TMB had other obligations and that Montague was telling the truth. Wow. That will help you later in the game. I just think it is ridiculous that you say I slipped up when I had one post of any substance before your post.

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Monty's argument regaring information here is flawed. The lag time argument is important and knowing TMB's identity would have helped later on.

Also, in my last post I said that I would be able to check the thread and be more active, but whatever. If you guys think this is the best thing for the cits then go ahead and do it.

3. Buddying
Jaz addressed this earlier and I think she makes a very good point. All of a sudden Monty started buddying with fwy. As a wolf, he needs an ally on his side, and buddying up with fwy gives him twice as much weight to throw around. Earlier, Monty was one of fwy's top suspicions. Now fwy seems unwilling to consider him. This is incredibly important in the last round, where the vote will either be 2-2 or 3-1. The wolf must have at least one friend if he wants to survive.

4. Other observations
I think fwybwed actually made a good point here:

quote:

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Originally posted by fwybwed:
Tho he [Monty] states he is trying to catch up in the thread he also states that was reading the thread "Well before replacing TMB"....? He should have more information then he percieved to having, no?

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Here's Monty's responses:

quote:

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Originally posted by Montague:

That's an impressive post there fwy. You much be proud.

So what are you trying to say?

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Okay, I see the point you are trying to make.

quote:

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Originally posted by Montague:
So I obviously had no reason to catch up with the game because I had been keeping up with it from the start, correct? I was misleading you by making you think I had not kept up with the game or something? I was just using all of this to stay low?

Well, okay.

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He basically just blows off fwy with a few sarcastic questions.

@fwy: Why did you suddenly no longer become suspicous of Monty?

That's all I have for now.

-Caitiri

quote:

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Originally posted by Jazaray:
Just wondering.. what was the point of this? Do I need to post pics of my votes too?

Thanks,
Jazaray

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@ Jaz

I posted these to verify to Caitiri. He had called me out earlier stating that I never even voted for Montague to create a tie, and that all I had was my word.

He tried to explain to me that he switched to MW after your post for bruised, but he switched 7 minutes before you even posted that.

~MM

__________________
I am MeddlingMage...YOUR Motl Survivor 11 Champion and 2007 Captain N award winner.

quote:

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Originally posted by fwybwed:
@ Jaz

I posted these to verify to Caitiri. He had called me out earlier stating that I never even voted for Montague to create a tie, and that all I had was my word.

But this proves that I had voted for Montague to force a tie...

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That was all based on the mistake I made earlier anyway. I believe you voted Monty, although, like I said, the timing of your votes doesn't match with the story you told.

February 17, 2010 03:55 PM -- fwy votes Monty
February 17, 2010 04:03 PM -- Caitiri switches to Bruised
February 17, 2010 04:13 PM -- Monty switches to Bruised
February 17, 2010 04:14 PM -- fwy votes Bruised
February 17, 2010 04:20 PM -- fwy votes MW
February 17, 2010 04:27 PM -- Jaz switches to Bruised

February 17, 2010 04:34 PM -- MM posts vote results

Alright, let's go step by step.

1. fwy votes Monty to force the (3)fwy - (3)Monty tie.
2. I switch to Bruised. (2)fwy - (3)Monty - (1)Bruised
3. Monty switches to Bruised, making it (3)Monty - (1)fwy - (2)Bruised.
4. fwy switches to Bruised without seeing Monty's switch, thinking he is making it (2)fwy - (2)Monty - (2)Bruised, but without declaring, and actually making it (1)fwy - (2)Monty - (3)Bruised.
5. fwy switches to MW, making it (2)Monty - (2)Bruised - (1)fwy - (1)MW, but if he still didn't see Monty's post then he thought he was making it (2)Monty - (1)Bruised - (2)fwy - (1)MW, all without declaring.
6. Jaz switches to Bruised, thinking she is making it (3)Monty - (3)Bruised, but actually making it (2)Monty - (3)Bruised - (1)MW

-Caitiri

EDIT: Based on this it does seem that fwy was trying to maintain a tie, whether he saw Monty's post or not. The questions are why didn't he declare any of his vote switches, and why did he claim to have voted after Jaz's switch when it was actually 7 minutes prior?

@ Caitiri- That is a really impressive post, truely. If you are a wolf it is a good job. If you are a citizen, you are going to be sadly disappointed. I'm leaning towards the first.

I am still currently voting Monty, although I would like to hear fwy's new and improved explanation for his vote switching last round. :P

-Caitiri