quote:

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Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:
Almost always = not always. I believe the conclusions I have come to are sound, and that your repeated attempts to keep us from drawing any conclusions from the R0 kill means you're trying to defend someone.

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The wolves use their kills to communicate with the cits. The conclusions that the cits draw from them educates the wolves on how best to manipulate them.

AFAIC, I'm protecting the best interests of the town.

IF there are 1-2 WW's in the Morbid pile, then there should be atleast one in the remaining piles...

what would be easier for us to determine.

I think that if we go with what we know in regards to the time frame of Names given to the GM and the emotions of players to the ones shredded. this may give us some light on who to suggest...

Remaining piles as per XpR.

For JoshSherman - 2 alive players

Dakrum - B77 Replacment.... does not excuse B77 as possible WW

XplicitR - hate on for AGM could be a bluff.

TheMidnightBomber - 1 alive player
Jazaray - Time line and posting seem suspicious along with delayed naming to GM

Jazaray - 1 alive player
MasterWolf - along with my self Jaz,BernieB suspected late by the late PGB

imo, Jaz is top of my list along with Xpr. she falls into 2 areas

1 - delayed = low posting
2 - shredding of PGB

and I am feeling Xpr is jes to hard to let go. Ill do more reading later.

quote:

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Originally posted by Gawain:
That's reasonable. However, fearing that your bias might lead you to suspect a citizen is just as dangerous as second-guessing yourself and possibly missing a Wolf. You are not the only one who suspects BoT. I am not suggesting a dog-pile at this point, but if you're worried about bias, then just air your suspicions and ask if anyone agrees with you. I do, for one, and I have zero bias towards BoT in either direction.

---

B_o_T has raised suspicions for the following reasons:

1) poor logic in clearing dakrum. I just can't get behind it-- Bernek77 could have meant "good luck" either truthfully or sarcastically. Or he could have been whacked out on pain meds and had no idea he said it. I simply can't justify drawing a conclusion either way from it.

2) The arbitrary point system. I have knowledge from outside the game via talking with him about past games that indicates to me the B_o_T would not try to go that route without a hidden agenda (and hence, my judgement is clouded). Since I know he wouldn't do that, and he knows I know it, then why do it?

3) Following the policy lynch is not a strong point to stand on, which was one of my fears about the policy lynch. There's little information to garner from it. Definitely some, but not a lot. It makes a perfect fit for someone who is trying to survive to the endgame by...

4) Dropping off the radar. B_o_T didn't have the best R1 as we all know, but after coming under fire he's now backed off that and become more level-headed. Unfortunately, this is both a point for (in terms of my entire post) and against (by itself) B_o_T being a wolf in my mind.

5) Using Occam's Razor as an argument in a game built upon subterfuge. All things are not equal in hte context of this game, so Occam's Razor does not apply.

I'm still not sold on voting for B_o_T, though. I feel like finding out his role condemns me either way, so I'm not inclined to condemn myself.

Something else I saw that piqued my curiosity:

quote:

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PlasteredDragon said:
12/15 x 11/14 x 10/13 x 9/12 x 8/11 x 7/10 x 6/9 = 12.31 % of no wolves

In other words there is a 87.69 % chance that there are wolves in PGB's early suspect list. (BRU, CAI, GAW, JS, MMY, MW, MOR). Now one of those suspects has been confirmed as a cit (MOR). This reduces the size of PGB's early suspect list (and the percentages) as follows:

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Your thoughtfullness and articulance is unparallelled on this board. With that in mind, isn't 87.69% the probability of at least one wolf in the list, as opposed to simply wolves? Also, your precentages are probabilities, not odds. I did not double check your computation, but the way you made it looked good upon glossing over it.

I'm still working on my earlier theories, but have nothing to contribute about them yet.

quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:
Obviously I couldn't post yesterday before the kill was announced. And JAZARAY suspects me for not posting much and then accuses ME of being contradictory? lol

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Why couldn't you post yesterday, before the kill was announced? Lots of other people did. That's not even what I was talking about though. From the time of the R0 NK, you did not post, at all, from Jan 29, until Feb 1st, and that post was just to say "sorry I was gone, no internet at home, etc" Heck, I posted twice in that time. Yet, you managed to post THREE times during the wait for the NK. And then you come out, all over about silents. Let me set this straight, I don't suspect you because you were silent, I suspect you because you were being contradictory. And, you were.

quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:
Alrighty, response time. Starting with the lynch.

So let's assume I'm wolf leader (or PD is, or anyone from ZC): why would I waste a R0 kill on someone I knew I could easy get lynched in the early game? So while the argument that I dislike AGM and would like him dead might have been true in previous games, it just doesn't make any sense for this one.

---

WIFOM post.

quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:

REALLY? Really Gawain? You think that of the 10 people who voted for Morbid, there MAY be one or two wolves?

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Geez MW.

quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:
While we're talking about how you play, how about we mention that your posting in the first 4 rounds is usually very sparse, and we gather almost no info on you before the late rounds, where you jump in and use your great reputation on these forums to convince people you are innocent and/or that you know what you're talking about. I don't like it Jaz. You're too much of a question mark in these games. If it was down to 6 people left, and I was one of them, and I absolutely knew you were a wolf, I would not be able to convince the others to vote for you. And that is why I have to come gunning for you early for playing so silent.

---

My posting in the first four rounds of any game, is not sparse, it's about the same amount as anyone else does, except PD, of course. (Except, as I said, during r1). YES last round was different, I'm sorry that my friend's sister had to die and that we had some other RL issues during the game, I'll try not the let it happen again.

I'd like instances where I've "used my 'great' reputation on the forum to promote my innocence". I've NEVER used my Modhood or the fact that I'm generally well-liked on the forums to get me ANYTHING, and I find it offensive that you would claim I do.

I've been lynched MANY times, for stupid reasons even. IE: Remember Iabtu's "Jaz is Italian, so she must be mafia" stance that everyone went along with for like three games? I don't think anyone has any problems voting for me, and I'd like examples of people having problems voting for me because of my "great repuatation" too.

And if, as you say, me "sparsely" posting during the first four rounds is IC for me, WHY would you suspect me for it?

quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:

The "Can't forget" was copying PD's list of those who had not posted between game begin and R0 kill. I had to list them all for completeness.

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Ok, I understand that. It was still weird to me though.

quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:
One of the reasons I came out strongly against Jaz R1 was to get her to reply and hope to glean something from how she replied. I find the defensiveness expected, but the counterattack scummier than I'd suspect.

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I don't understand what you find "scummy" about my counterattack. I think I've proven that I have valid reasons for suspecting you.

quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:
The lag time has been during my work hours, sadly. One of the reasons for my low post count has been nothing to talk about during work because we're waiting for a kill.

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So, it's ok for you not to post. But, not for anyone else?

quote:

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Originally posted by Bruised:
I am also rather suspicious of Jaz. It seems like she is being overly defensive to MW’s attacks, he only suspected her because of policy (you were rather silent) and for you to backlash against him seems scummy.

---

He suspect me because of his "silents policy", but at that time, I had posted more than he had. I don't think I was overly defensive of his being contradictory. And, again, I don't understand why my suspicions of him are scummy.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
My recollection tells me you ran about average in post count--yes the kid vote is definitely in-character, as is sticking with the vote, but to my recollection you haven't avoided conversation. Maybe that's a more recent phenomenon which has occurred since the last round of WW games I was involved in.

---

As far back as I remember, I post very minimally during the first round. Like I said, there's really not much to say unless someone posts something that screams "WOLF!"

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Because that's different--if you are a cit you defend yourself because (a) lynching you would waste a round and (b) the person making the case for you might be a wolf. What I'm talking about is an apparent hypersensitivity to looking suspicious. Preemptively and overtly attempting to appear unsuspicious--making an effort to appear unsuspicious--it seems to me someone who is going out of their way to do this is probably worthy of suspicion.

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I don't think I understand what you're saying. Could you give me examples of "ok defense" and "hyper" defense?.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Well the point here was not that he's suspicious because he's busy and can't post often. The point here was that we suspect the wolf-team includes players that are typically unavailable--leading to the long lag times we've seen, which makes TMB a good fit.

---

Ok, I get that.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
I have no tracker here at work, but if I recall correctly, he had TMB and BOT as "top suspects" from R1, along with PGB. If he was a wolf, it seems really unlikely that his 3 top suspects would be the other two wolves and the guy he was planning to NK. So if he turned out to be a wolf, I'd definitely begin to doubt the validity of my cases against BOT and TMB.

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Maybe, at the time, he wasn't planning on killing PGB. Or maybe it's either BOT or TMB. A good ww always suspects their brethren, just for the reason you stated above.

quote:

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Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:
I have played several games in the past, I would say ten or so, but I would hardly call myself a seasoned veteran. I usually ignored strategy and went with my "gut" and rudimentary analysis. Now I'm trying to play a better game, so I'm asking questions. I don't see how I'm grasping for straws - is my theory about Xpr and Masterwolf not sound? They both show a strong disdain for AGM - wouldn't it be likely that one of them is a wolf?

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I wouldn't call you a n00b either though, and that's the kind of questions you're asking. I commend you for trying to play a better game, but it's still fishy.

quote:

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Originally posted by fwybwed:
Here's where Im at:

IF there are 1-2 WW's in the Morbid pile, then there should be atleast one in the remaining piles...

what would be easier for us to determine.

---

I honestly can't believe I'm saying this but, I actually agree with fwy here. That is, if I'm interpreting what he said correctly. Instead of trying to fish one or two wolves out of the Morbid pile, maybe we should try fishing in the "off wagon" ones.

Thanks,
Jazaray

__________________
A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick:
There was a nice lassie named Jaz
Many wished to have what she has,
A delicate face,
A soft warm embrace,
And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.

quote:

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Originally posted by Jazaray:
I'd like instances where I've "used my 'great' reputation on the forum to promote my innocence". I've NEVER used my Modhood or the fact that I'm generally well-liked on the forums to get me ANYTHING, and I find it offensive that you would claim I do.

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Clarification so you don't get offended: I mean that people in general don't like to lynch you because you're a nice person overall. I didn't mean that you used your power to get your way, just that your personality protects you sometimes. As for examples, well, I wasn't playing way back when so I don't remember when you'd get lynched a lot. But I do know that before last round, in the discussions I had with other dead folk, I thought you were a big softie who always played nice and historically I'm not sure I have ever actually voted for you. So yeah, I assume there could be others like me.

I consider you one of the sweetest, nicest people I have ever talked to. But this is a game, and you make a dangerous wolf. That is all.

quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:
Clarification so you don't get offended: I mean that people in general don't like to lynch you because you're a nice person overall. I didn't mean that you used your power to get your way, just that your personality protects you sometimes. As for examples, well, I wasn't playing way back when so I don't remember when you'd get lynched a lot. But I do know that before last round, in the discussions I had with other dead folk, I thought you were a big softie who always played nice and historically I'm not sure I have ever actually voted for you. So yeah, I assume there could be others like me.

I consider you one of the sweetest, nicest people I have ever talked to. But this is a game, and you make a dangerous wolf. That is all.

---

Alright, I'll forgive you this time. :P But, you did say that I "used" my reputation. That doesn't sound as if you meant OTHER people felt that way, if you know what I mean.

<3

Thanks,
Jazaray

__________________
A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick:
There was a nice lassie named Jaz
Many wished to have what she has,
A delicate face,
A soft warm embrace,
And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.

quote:

---

Originally posted by JoshSherman:
With that in mind, isn't 87.69% the probability of at least one wolf in the list, as opposed to simply wolves?

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quote:

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Originally posted by JoshSherman:
Also, your precentages are probabilities, not odds.

---

As far as the math goes it's pretty simple.

If you are a player in R1, and there are 15 other players alive, and 3 of those are wolves, your chance of picking a wolf randomly is 3 out of 15 (a.k.a. 1 out of 5, or 1/5, or 0.2, or 20%). But your chances of picking a cit would be 12 out of 15 (12/15, 80%).

So the question is, if you picked, say 6 players at random, what is the likelihood that you would have found 1 or more wolves? The easiest way is to figure out what the chances are that you would pick NO wolves, and then deduct that from 100%, giving the chance you would pick 1 or more.

So we compute your chance of picking no wolves six times in a row like this:

On your first pick there are 15 other players of which 12 are cits. So that's 12/15 chance you pick a cit as pick #1 (0.8 or 80%).

Having picked a cit already, on pick #2 there are 14 players to choose from of which 11 are cits, so your chance of picking a cit this time is 11/14 (0.786 or 78.6%).

On pick 3 there are 13 players to choose from of which 10 are cits, 10/13 (0.769 or 76.9%).

On pick 4, 9/12 (0.75 or 75%).

On pick 5, 8/11 (0.727 or 72.7%).

On pick 6, 7/10 (0.7 or 70%).

The chance that you will make six picks like this in succession is the product of each of the individual percentages:

12/15 x 11/14 x 10/13 x 9/12 x 8/11 x 7/10
= 0.8 x 0.786 x 0.769 x 0.75 x 0.727 x 0.7
= 0.1846 or 18.46%

So a pile of suspects containing six players is, from the perspective of a cit making the list, 18.46% likely to contain NO WOLVES. This means that the percentage chance for some wolves is 100% - 18.46% or 81.54%.

Easy peasy.

I'm doing a little rounding above but that's okay, we're interested in a ballpark figure... quibbling over 0.5 % in this context is pretty silly.

quote:

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Originally posted by Jazaray:
I don't think I understand what you're saying. Could you give me examples of "ok defense" and "hyper" defense?

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Let's say you walk into the kitchen and the cookie jar is open and there sits one of your kids. Dinner's in an hour and the cookie jar appears to be empty.

If you begin questioning the child about having eaten the cookies, and he defends himself (says no he didn't and has a reasonable argument) this would be an "ok defense". And by OK I mean "commensurate"--which is to say the amount of defense is reasonable given the amount of accusation.

But if you walk in, don't even notice the cookie jar and as you are walking past the kid suddenly pipes up "I didn't eat any cookies."

In this case there wasn't any accusation at all, the kid is launching into a preemptive defense--this is not commensurate to the accusation. The fact that he does so is a good indication that he's probably guilty.

BOT's "pay no attention to that earlier post" and "yay I was able to post again" statements feel like defenses that are not commensurate to the level of suspicion. The former seems more like a way to avoid explaining a system because the explanation will probably seem suspicious, and the latter seems to be a preemptive defense against accusations that haven't been made. In both cases it appears an avoidance technique is being employed to fend off accusations that haven't come yet.

Does that help?

quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:
I don't see what the point is of all that mathematical information. Yes, there are probably some wolves who voted for Morbid. Maybe even all of the wolves. But those numbers won't help us nail them down. Just seems like information overload.

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Can I ask you something, since you are addressing me directly?

Why are you being rude?

You really seem brusque this game, moreso than in previous games. Condescension and curtness is OOC for you. Maybe you are just hungry for a win, but after seeing in AGM a prime example of what a particularly acerbic play style can achieve, I find it more than odd that you should choose to be harsh.

Can you chill out?

Nonetheless, you're right, I am stressed out and being abrasive. I'm sorry. I'm just gonna chill out today and maybe I won't be as much of an ass tomorrow.

Peace out guys.

Currently Voting either BoT or Jaz.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Please elaborate. And please do so in the context that if you go back to practically every mafia game or WW game on record that I have played in, some strong player has come out suggesting that drawing conclusions from the first kill is invariably a mistake.

The wolves use their kills to communicate with the cits. The conclusions that the cits draw from them educates the wolves on how best to manipulate them.

AFAIC, I'm protecting the best interests of the town.

But please fill me in, who do you think I am protecting?

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I say that Masterwolf and/or Xpr are wolves, or a grand master wolf is trying to set them up. I would say that PD is the type of player that could and would set that up, and is looking to bring me down if my theory on Masterwolf/Xpr is incorrect so he can look like a hero.

{SUSPECT: XPR}
{SUSPECT: MW}
{SUSPECT: PD}
{SUSPECT: ZERO}

__________________
Stages of Death: Anger, Denial, Barganing, Depression, Acceptance, Burial, Decay, Haunting, Revenge, Evil Laugh

quote:

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Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Please elaborate. And please do so in the context that if you go back to practically every mafia game or WW game on record that I have played in, some strong player has come out suggesting that drawing conclusions from the first kill is invariably a mistake.

The wolves use their kills to communicate with the cits. The conclusions that the cits draw from them educates the wolves on how best to manipulate them.

AFAIC, I'm protecting the best interests of the town.

But please fill me in, who do you think I am protecting?

---

[/QUOTE]

Your theory of me being a wolf hinges on me being an idiot. I'm sorry to disappoint you however, that this is something we just do not have in common.

quote:

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Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:
Yes, the kill can be a communication with the cits, and often it is, but I think the hostility shown by Xpr and Masterwolf toward AGM showed that they wanted him removed from the game.

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In Mafia-8 I was part of the wolf team that whacked Thanos R0 on a die roll and the cits went bonkers trying to figure out what it "meant", when it meant nothing at all. Unsurprisingly some of them starting talking about the perennial feuding between Bernek and Thanos and how therefore maybe it was Bernek who had offed Thanos. This wasn't part of the our plan but it was useful information we could employ to make Bernek look more guilty if necessary. In essence the wolves tossed a random kill out there and let the cits tell them what it meant.

quote:

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Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:
Just because AGM is a R0 kill doesn't mean no information can be gained from it.

---

quote:

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Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:
Suppose PGB and AGM's round kills were switched - would AGM's kill now suddenly be more important?

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__________________
Stages of Death: Anger, Denial, Barganing, Depression, Acceptance, Burial, Decay, Haunting, Revenge, Evil Laugh

quote:

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Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:
Whatever, apparently I'm awful and I'm just going to lead the wolves to a win. Vote submitted. I'll let you figure out for whom.

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This is exactly why you are useless to the cits.

quote:

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Originally posted by XplicitR:
This is exactly why you are useless to the cits.

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__________________
Stages of Death: Anger, Denial, Barganing, Depression, Acceptance, Burial, Decay, Haunting, Revenge, Evil Laugh

quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:
I don't see what the point is of all that mathematical information. Yes, there are probably some wolves who voted for Morbid. Maybe even all of the wolves. But those numbers won't help us nail them down. Just seems like information overload.

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Thank you, mostly based on random suspicions of course and IF you pick accordingly. Wont work and doesnt help...

now...Xpr Quotes...

quote:

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Yeah, that's clearly why. I stated that I wasn't going to vote for Morbid, because MM could just as easily replace him and I had someone more suspicious to go after. Your argument is trash, after all I am the one who brought up that I would be willing to kill AGM round 0 and while that does not clear me, it does not condemn me.

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Im curious about this post, MM was not going to replace a player we were all going to lynch due to silence. Why would he??? It was the First Round…When he can read that we are going to do that anyways…

quote:

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Where is Morbid? If he is inactive like this can MeddlingMage please replace him?

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Im also wondering why you would ask for a replacement at this time as we still had a day for him to try an be an active player, tho many of us decided that this was not going to happen again…
seems so pro town that its over flowing...

quote:

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Despite the obvious frame up implications (However if I was a wolf, I would definitely have killed AGM first as well), what other leads do people have?

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@ Xpr: Should we exonerate you for this statement? Saying “IF I WAS”
As to me its seems bluffish(If a word)

you say AGM was a loose cannon, and that we benifited from his demise.

@Xpr: What benefits do you speak of and as a loose cannon do feel he would have been better served as a lynch over a shred?

quote:

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Bernek, hope you get better soon

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Hmmm, VERY SUSPICIOUS!!!

quote:

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I am voting for JoshSherman...something he said in the PFS felt kind of weird to me (He had asked about ryan's questions and if they were allowed). I feel like a wolf would more likely be more defensive about that kind of stuff than a cit.

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I never seen this...post...what questions was he inquiring about...give examples please.

I am no math wiz, but Jaz actually agreeing with something I sed WOW I think I may be gettin some where lol

quote:

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Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:

Actually it was your post that led me to the conclusion that I should stop doing the summary posts - I'm not good at it, and especially in the case of PD, it can be hard to summarize without omitting or misconstruing pertinent info.

I have played several games in the past, I would say ten or so, but I would hardly call myself a seasoned veteran. I usually ignored strategy and went with my "gut" and rudimentary analysis. Now I'm trying to play a better game, so I'm asking questions. I don't see how I'm grasping for straws - is my theory about Xpr and Masterwolf not sound? They both show a strong disdain for AGM - wouldn't it be likely that one of them is a wolf?

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To your first point...I get what you're saying, but the fact that you didn't just tell me that immediately lead me to believe that you were trying to sweep my question under the rug so as to distract attention away from it.

To the second, I can understand trying to play a better game. However, this is now my 5th game of Mafia/Werewolf, and I feel I already 10 times the player I was. Seasoned Veteran? Maybe not, but if you had 10 games under your belt back in the day, that's more than enough to dispel any concern that you might not be good enough, or that you wouldn't be able to shake off the rust quickly enough, or whatever. Further, there are several "seasoned vets" who are playing right now who have expressed several times that they have a positive opinion of your play style from previous games, and consider you a strong player. This leads me to believe that you are either:

A) A humble, self-deprecating individual who always avoids talking a big game and prefers carrots to sticks,

or

B) Someone with something to hide.

The latter strikes me as more likely.

As to AGM...you weren't in the Zombie Club last game, and I will give you the benefit of the doubt in terms of having not kept up with the last, I dunno, 5 or 6 games of Mafia, but...AGM has ruffled a LOT of feathers in recent games past, to put it lightly. His play style and character have really ****ed a lot of people off. That there is a bit of vitriol carrying over from those past games into this is not only not a surprise at all, but honestly is to be expected. I don't consider it OOC in the slightest, especially for someone as typically blunt as XpR.

quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:

Gawain's post stating: "First, I agree with those who have stated that there is very likely a wolf hiding in the Morbid- pile, and probably two of them."

REALLY? Really Gawain? You think that of the 10 people who voted for Morbid, there MAY be one or two wolves?

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Utterly unnecessary comment dude. I made that statement to preface what was a much longer and more in-depth analysis to come. Yes, it was obvious, but by nature (as a topic sentence) it kind of had to be.

quote:

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Originally posted by JoshSherman:
B_o_T has raised suspicions for the following reasons:

1) poor logic in clearing dakrum. I just can't get behind it-- Bernek77 could have meant "good luck" either truthfully or sarcastically. Or he could have been whacked out on pain meds and had no idea he said it. I simply can't justify drawing a conclusion either way from it.

2) The arbitrary point system. I have knowledge from outside the game via talking with him about past games that indicates to me the B_o_T would not try to go that route without a hidden agenda (and hence, my judgement is clouded). Since I know he wouldn't do that, and he knows I know it, then why do it?

3) Following the policy lynch is not a strong point to stand on, which was one of my fears about the policy lynch. There's little information to garner from it. Definitely some, but not a lot. It makes a perfect fit for someone who is trying to survive to the endgame by...

4) Dropping off the radar. B_o_T didn't have the best R1 as we all know, but after coming under fire he's now backed off that and become more level-headed. Unfortunately, this is both a point for (in terms of my entire post) and against (by itself) B_o_T being a wolf in my mind.

5) Using Occam's Razor as an argument in a game built upon subterfuge. All things are not equal in hte context of this game, so Occam's Razor does not apply.

I'm still not sold on voting for B_o_T, though. I feel like finding out his role condemns me either way, so I'm not inclined to condemn myself.

---

1) In all honesty, I was in agreement with BoT on that one. And also in all honesty, I don't think logic had anything to do with it. We have to first take everything we know about Bernek, and then apply the situation he had just been through to the personality and play style he typically exhibits. I just don't feel like "good luck cits" from him AT THAT TIME, DIRECTLY after what he had just been through, could be taken at anything more or less than face value. Which indicates to me that he probably meant it.

2) I had no such previous, out of game knowledge regarding BoT, and don't know him all that well from MOTL, and I still found that point system to be very suspicious. I think you can stop worrying about the bias on this one, because others have expressed this same opinion.

3) Agreed...

4) BoT essentially backpedaled hardcore, and wanted to "hit the reset button." He has come off as much chummier since then, in what I believe is an attempt to ingratiate himself to group of peers that he may have initially felt he incensed in his first post. After watching Bernek do essentially the exact same thing last game (in which he was Mafia), this also set off alarm bells for me. Again, I think you can eliminate fear of bias on this one, because again, you and I aren't the only ones to have picked up on it.

5) Again, agreed (at least for most intents and purposes).

I can't speak to your concern regarding condemning yourself, except that PD would say that doesn't matter; if the town wins, you win, and if BoT is lynched, regardless of what his role is, information will be gained. I personally am leaning towards a BoT vote as of now, but am not yet fully decided on it.

quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:

Nonetheless, you're right, I am stressed out and being abrasive. I'm sorry. I'm just gonna chill out today and maybe I won't be as much of an ass tomorrow.

Peace out guys.

Currently Voting either BoT or Jaz.

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I feel this statement on your part mitigates my irritation towards you for the above quoted statement you made when quoting me, but only somewhat. I'm not gonna be petty and ask you for an apology, but if you could refrain from condescending to me in the future it would be greatly appreciated.

quote:

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Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by XplicitR:
This is exactly why you are useless to the cits.

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[/QUOTE]

First off, don't let XpR get to you on a personal level man. It IS only a game, and he can be very abrasive. If he were a Ninja Turtle he would definitely be Raphael.

Second, no one is saying you're useless (XpR aside), and no one is trying to imply that you're an idiot. In fact, I think what EVERYONE is trying to say is that the reason your game has been suspicious all along is that you are NOT playing to the level that we ALL know you are capable of; not even close. I don't know you half as well as a lot of these guys do, and even I know you're way, way smarter than this.

Which is why I suspect you, because I give you enough credit as an intelligent player to pre-meditate everything you say as a manipulation of the crowd. I think that the way you are coming off right now is a persona crafted to mask an ulterior purpose, and I think that that purpose is nomin' on townies, 'cause yer a wOOf.

And I think that if AGM were here, he would consider your last several posts especially to be AtE, one of his favorite Mafia/Werewolf acronyms. For anyone who doesn't know that one, it's Appeal to Emotion. I don't think you're doing so actively, but passively, which would be the more subtle, manipulative, and thus more intelligent way of doing it.

{SUSPECT: BoT}
{SUSPECT: Caitiri}
{SUSPECT: JoshSherman}
{SUSPECT: TheMidnightBomber}

To clarify, I STRONGLY suspect BoT, TMB is a medium-high suspicion (speak up for yourself man!), and Caitiri and Josh are only minor suspects at this point, don't have a strong case against either.

Also, Jaz has REALLY come out of the shadows this round, so at least for the moment, my primary reason for suspecting/worrying about her has been largely assuaged.

And where is MagicMystic? He was very talkative early on and has basically just disappeared the last few days.

quote:

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Originally posted by fwybwed:
Im curious about this post, MM was not going to replace a player we were all going to lynch due to silence. Why would he??? It was the First Round…When he can read that we are going to do that anyways…

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If Morbid was not voted out he would have been replaced by MM most likely.

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Originally posted by fwybwed:

Im also wondering why you would ask for a replacement at this time as we still had a day for him to try an be an active player, tho many of us decided that this was not going to happen again…
seems so pro town that its over flowing...

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Are you saying that someone who was silent for 2 days is all of a sudden going to become active at the end? I doubted that and hoped that if Morbid made it into the next round he would be replaced by someone else. Not so much protown as not wanting this game to degenerate into silence like it did in the previous game.

quote:

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Originally posted by fwybwed:

@ Xpr: Should we exonerate you for this statement? Saying “IF I WAS”
As to me its seems bluffish(If a word)

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Would you have been happier if I said "since I am a cit"? There is no way I can say what I wanted to without you being suspicious of me, so I don't expect to be exonerated based on that.

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Originally posted by fwybwed:
you say AGM was a loose cannon, and that we benifited from his demise.

@Xpr: What benefits do you speak of and as a loose cannon do feel he would have been better served as a lynch over a shred?

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AGM typically acts hysterically and uncouth to the rest of the populace. As a result it leads to him getting lynched in the late game a lot. He also has been known to not really contribute to the cits as much so it felt like the wolves wasted their kill until of course I found out he was the Angel.

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Originally posted by fwybwed:
I never seen this...post...what questions was he inquiring about...give examples please.

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quote:

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Originally posted by XplicitR:
Ryan was bringing up some questions about the current game in the PFS and Josh responded with a "Why are they allowed to talk about this" type response. Sounded more like complaining.

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I'd appreciate it if you would provide a link to this because I don't recall it off the top of my head. Aside from that, what I previously said about this stands.

quote:

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Originally posted by JoshSherman:
High:
Medium: B_o_T (it is round 1, after all)
Low/Medium Suspicion: PlasteredDragon, Gawain, MasterWolf, fwybwed, Bruised
Low suspicion: MagicMystic, caitiri

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As it stands now, B_o_T is my primary suspect. I can't shake it,and it appears I am not alone. I am submitting my vote for him now because I will be at work all day tomorrow and busy for most of the rest of the weekend. Not saying I won't post, though, because I likely will.

XplicitR is also suspicious to me, pending the quote of mine he perceived to be complaining. I have never been a fan of trying to gauge a person's role by using threads other than this one. An exception to that is if that person is active other places and not in here, which is clearly not the case with me.

As for those on my previous list, I am not supecting gawain or PD at the moment. If B_o_T turns out to be a villager, I may reexamine this, especially PD.

I am wondering where Mystic has been. IIRC, he likes to drop off the radar, but I do not recall if that was strictly a mafia (in terms of role, not games) tactic of his, so I can't speak to how suspicious it is.

I remember that caitiri has always been a pretty good player, but that's about it, so I don't really have a read on him either. I'm kinda in the same boat with the rest, so they've all been downgraded to low suspicion for the time being

High: B_o_T
Medium: XplicitR
Low: MasterWolf, fwybwed, Bruised, MagicMystic, caitiri

Honestly, this list is too big to do anything with. I think from now on I will only post medium and high suspicion and keep low to myself.

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Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:
Whatever, apparently I'm awful and I'm just going to lead the wolves to a win. Vote submitted. I'll let you figure out for whom.

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I don't think you are awful--I just think you are making a type of play which is (by historical precedent) generally bad for the town. Who knows, maybe this will be one of those times where going against conventional wisdom will yield positive results, and then I'll owe you an even bigger apology.

quote:

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Originally posted by Xpr:
Are you saying that someone who was silent for 2 days is all of a sudden going to become active at the end? I doubted that and hoped that if Morbid made it into the next round he would be replaced by someone else. Not so much protown as not wanting this game to degenerate into silence like it did in the previous game

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Im saying that you wanting to replace Morbid so fast before we could even give him the benefit of posting before the round ended.

As for Protown, you are imo trying to hard....to me its like you want everyone to see you status as a hardcore protown player. and it to is very overflowing, meaning you are trying to hard to early.

quote:

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Originally posted by Xpr:
Would you have been happier if I said "since I am a cit"? There is no way I can say what I wanted to without you being suspicious of me, so I don't expect to be exonerated based on that.

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What gets me is why it was sed PERIOD!

quote:

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Originally posted by Xpr:
AGM typically acts hysterically and uncouth to the rest of the populace. As a result it leads to him getting lynched in the late game a lot. He also has been known to not really contribute to the cits as much so it felt like the wolves wasted their kill until of course I found out he was the Angel.

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So if you were a WW if you WOULD have shredded AGM R0, but here you state that you felt they wasted a shred on him??? before you knew he was the Angel...which you note. So now its not a waste???

And i too want links to this Josh Bizness...I search a could not find anything....

I wanted to know from you what types of questions been asked and add please was it for this WW game???

you never provided...

Voting Xpr...atm