quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:

Step 5: you hand out game suspensions.

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This will be addressed at the end of the game.

~MM

__________________
I am MeddlingMage...YOUR Motl Survivor 11 Champion and 2007 Captain N award winner, and I approve this siggy!

My next suspect is going to be MasterWolf, his voting outside of the group is not so suspicious, nor is his voting for Jaz (who I agree has been pretty quiet), but his reasoning to vote outside the group just for the sake of voting outside the group seems a bit wolven to me.

Villagers your votes are due Thursday Night.

~MM

__________________
I am MeddlingMage...YOUR Motl Survivor 11 Champion and 2007 Captain N award winner, and I approve this siggy!

A milder, secondary suspicion is for PD. He's obviously one of the strongest, most analytical players in the game - even a n00b wolf leader could see that by now. This leads to one of three conclusions (not in any particular order):

1. PD is a wolf.
2. PD is a cit, and the wolves are keeping him alive to make it a strong game.
3. PD is a cit, and the wolves are waiting for the cits to lynch him for the exact reasons I've stated.

__________________
Stages of Death: Anger, Denial, Barganing, Depression, Acceptance, Burial, Decay, Haunting, Revenge, Evil Laugh

quote:

---

Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:
Right now my main suspicion is between MasterWolf and XplicitR. Both have shown a strong distaste for AGM and both voted in the non-Morbid pile, so that when we started analyzing the Morbid pile, they would be left out. I say one or both are wolfies.

A milder, secondary suspicion is for PD. He's obviously one of the strongest, most analytical players in the game - even a n00b wolf leader could see that by now. This leads to one of three conclusions (not in any particular order):

1. PD is a wolf.
2. PD is a cit, and the wolves are keeping him alive to make it a strong game.
3. PD is a cit, and the wolves are waiting for the cits to lynch him for the exact reasons I've stated.

---

Yeah, that's clearly why. I stated that I wasn't going to vote for Morbid, because MM could just as easily replace him and I had someone more suspicious to go after. Your argument is trash, afterall I am the one who brought up that I would be willing to kill AGM round 0 and while that does not clear me, it does not condemn me.

So what you are basically saying is that, I killed someone I disliked round 0 and then separated myself from the major pile in order to protect myself? And you are adding a second person, so that when they find out I am not a wolf, they can go for them? Looks like someone is making a hard reach to start a wagon. As far as I am concerned, your vote so far has been for a citizen so you have already done worse for this town than I have. I would like to ask, what you think of the other 2 players who were not in the Morbid pile? Why have you excluded them from your "analysis"?

The piles are:

Morbid - 10 alive players
Battle_of_Twits
BernieB
Bruised
Caitiri
fwybwed
Gawain
JoshSherman
MagicMystic
PlasteredDragon
puregoblinboy47 (deceased cit)
TheMidnightBomber

JoshSherman - 2 alive players
Dakrum
XplicitR

TheMidnightBomber - 1 alive player
Jazaray

It's time to present cases for players that I've been watching--hopefully that will shake things up a little. Give me an hour or so to bang this one out.

In the meantime here's a post history for PGB--now that he's dead we know his suspicions are above board and we should be looking at them with fresh eyes. Just keep in mind that one way the wolves try to manipulate the cits is through their nightkills.

020. Jan-26 09:06 PM: signed up - (ref: nobody)
085. Jan-29 09:16 PM: The kill may have been made in an effort to have a more challenging game. Posts suspect list. - (ref: AGM, Bernk, BRU, Gaw, Josh, Mystic, MW, Morb)
093. Jan-30 02:55 PM: do you plan on having a personality this game, B_O_T - (ref: BOT)
109. Jan-31 12:39 AM: Condolences to Bernek. - (ref: Bernk)
113. Jan-31 10:15 AM: Votes for silent player, Morbid-. May change later. - (ref: Morb)
138. Jan-31 11:37 PM: Responds to Cait's post. May vote morbid if he doesn't post. - (ref: Cait, PD)
166. Feb-02 02:28 AM: Change my suspect count to 3-4. I'll be back to clarrify later - (ref: PD)
168. Feb-02 01:20 PM: my thoughts since the lynching have changed - (ref: AGM, Bernk, BernB, fwy, Jaz, MW, TMB)
171. Feb-02 02:20 PM: What's on your mind? - (ref: PD)

And here's the voting/suspicion history of round 1 as I have it down:

code:

---

Voting/Suspicion History
==============================
 
From: AGM (ANGEL) eaten - round 1 begins
To:   end of round 1
 
============================================================
20100129 14:15  AGM  001 EATEN     (A)
20100129 14:25  MMY  001 SUSPECTS  JoshSherman - not stated
20100129 14:38  PD   001 SUSPECTS  Bernek77 - kill delay
20100129 14:38  PD   002 SUSPECTS  Jazaray - kill delay
20100129 14:38  PD   003 SUSPECTS  TheMidnightBomber - kill delay
20100129 15:55  JAZ  001 VOTES     TheMidnightBomber - TJ's pick
20100129 20:41  JS   001 SUSPECTS  Bruised - low-medium
20100129 20:41  JS   002 SUSPECTS  Caitiri - low
20100129 20:41  JS   003 SUSPECTS  fwybwed - low-medium
20100129 20:41  JS   004 SUSPECTS  Gawain - low-medium
20100129 20:41  JS   005 SUSPECTS  MagicMystic - low
20100129 20:41  JS   006 SUSPECTS  MasterWolf - low-medium
20100129 20:41  JS   007 SUSPECTS  PlasteredDragon - low-medium
20100129 21:16  PGB  001 SUSPECTS  Bruised - likely to kill for challenge
20100129 21:16  PGB  002 SUSPECTS  Gawain - likely to kill for challenge
20100129 21:16  PGB  003 SUSPECTS  JoshSherman - likely to kill for challenge
20100129 21:16  PGB  004 SUSPECTS  MagicMystic - likely to kill for challenge
20100129 21:16  PGB  005 SUSPECTS  MasterWolf - likely to kill for challenge
20100129 21:16  PGB  006 SUSPECTS  Morbid- - likely to kill for challenge
20100130 07:54  TMB  001 SUSPECTS  Morbid- - low attendance
20100130 07:54  TMB  002 SUSPECTS  PlasteredDragon - for not suspecting Morbid-
20100130 09:24  PD   001 VOTES     MagicMystic - random
20100130 11:00  BOT  001 SUSPECTS  PlasteredDragon - made a random vote
20100130 14:51  FWY  001 SUSPECTS  PlasteredDragon - talking to B77
20100130 14:51  FWY  002 SUSPECTS  XplicitR - unresponsive
20100130 15:10  BB   001 SUSPECTS  Jazaray - switching kids
20100130 15:16  GAW  001 SUSPECTS  Battle_of_Twits - mathemagical system of suspicion
20100131 10:15  PGB  001 VOTES     Morbid- - silent
20100131 12:51  BRU  001 VOTES     Morbid- - silent
20100131 16:14  PD   001 VOTES     Morbid- - silent
20100131 16:34  BOT  001 VOTES     Morbid- - silent
20100131 16:43  MMY  001 VOTES     Morbid- - silent
20100131 20:33  JS   001 SUSPECTS  Battle_of_Twits - suspicious posts
20100131 21:30  FWY  001 VOTES     Morbid- - silent
20100131 21:37  BB   001 VOTES     Morbid- - silent
20100131 23:37  PGB  001 SUSPECTS  Caitiri - suspicious post
20100201 12:31  MW   001 SUSPECTS  Battle_of_Twits - top suspect
20100201 12:31  MW   002 VOTES     Jazaray - policy lynch
20100201 12:31  MW   003 SUSPECTS  puregoblinboy47 - top suspect
20100201 12:31  MW   004 SUSPECTS  TheMidnightBomber - top suspect
20100201 13:50  GAW  001 VOTES     Morbid- - silent
20100201 16:27  XPR  001 VOTES     JoshSherman - weird post in other thread
20100201 16:35  B77  001 VOTES     JoshSherman - agrees with own suspects
20100201 16:35  B77  002 SUSPECTS  MasterWolf - not stated
20100201 16:35  B77  003 SUSPECTS  Morbid- - not stated
20100201 16:35  B77  004 SUSPECTS  TheMidnightBomber - unresponsive to questions
20100201 16:44  CAI  001 VOTES     Morbid- - die roll
20100201 19:44  JS   001 UNDECVOTE Morbid-
20100201 19:44  MOR  001 LYNCHED   (C) - did not vote.
20100201 19:44  TMB  001 UNDECVOTE Morbid-
20100202 13:20  PGB  001 SUSPECTS  BernieB - not active enough
20100202 13:20  PGB  002 SUSPECTS  fwybwed - OOC--too friendly
20100202 13:20  PGB  003 SUSPECTS  Jazaray - not active enough
20100202 13:20  PGB  004 SUSPECTS  MasterWolf - negative view of AGM
20100202 16:17  BB   001 SUSPECTS  MasterWolf - voting outside MOR pile
============================================================

---

First, I agree with those who have stated that there is very likely a wolf hiding in the Morbid- pile, and probably two of them. Yes, I was in that pile, but I think I can build a strong case for why I am not a Wolf, and for certain others as well. My logic is that the earlier on people declared votes for Morbid-, or the better/more consistent their explanation for why they agree with a policy lynch, the less likely they are to be Wolves. Also, I figured I would find at least one person in the Morbid- pile who never openly declared a vote for him, and I did: TheMidnightBomber. To me, jumping in on the pile without so much as a heads up smells very, very Lupine. Now, here is the list of people who DID specifically say they were voting for Morbid, in the EXACT numerical order in which they did so. I have some notes/explanations/opinions to go with some of the names, but not all:

1)MagicMystic - Very first one, clear explanation. Very low suspicion.
2)Gawain - I said I was for a policy lynch, but that I wanted to wait 'till closer to the vote before declaring for certain. Which I did.
3) PGB - Well, we know he's a Cit
4) Bruised
5) PlasteredDragon - Somewhere in all those many PD crafted sentences was a clear preference for a policy vote this round. And yes, I re-read them all, after work no less. I'm a champ
6) BoT - He posted his support for the Morbid policy lynch in the same post in which he said something I REALLY didn't like. I never did get an explanation when I called him out on twisting PD's words. He did, however, make a very self-deprecating excuse for his seemingly arbitrary point-based suspicion system, which was a very chummy backpedal in my book. I will quote the specific paragraph if anyone needs me to. (Further BoT suspicions listed below)
7) JoshSherman - Also didn't much like his post. He called Bot out on what he felt were likely Wolfish reasons for voting Morbid, and then agreed that a policy lynch of Morbid was the right move a few sentences later.
8) Fwybwed
9) BernieB - Said that he might vote Morbid, but never openly confirmed it before doing so. Very mildly suspicious.
10) Caitiri - I found it odd that he didn't want to be in the Morbid pile, then a random vote lands him on Morbid.

Again, the farther down this list the names go, the more likely I think we are to find a Wolf; the bigger the pile got, the more attractive it became as an early round hiding place.

Now then, I think it also stands to reason that since we now know PGB was a Cit, we should look at his suspects. Not because he has any greater wolf-hunting powers than any of the rest of us, but because we KNOW he's not a Wolf trying to manipulate us. He mentioned right before he was offed that he suspected:

MasterWolf
Fwybwed
Jazaray
BernieB

Of those four, I'm not getting a clear read from MW or Fwyb, and of course while I can't read Jaz because she's barely posted a thing, it's for that very reason that I'm beginning to worry about her. I would like to see more Jazaray posts for sure. BernieB I don't have a huge read on, though the lowish post count and lack of Morbid confirmation lead me to a minor suspicion at this point.

Last, I'm really beginning to get a pretty Wolfish vibe from BoT. My first alarm bell went off early on with the point system, but more with the way he twisted what PD said to make it seem as though he was making a direct accusation, when in fact he had only listed a minor suspicion. Then, there was the backpedal from the point system, the self-deprecating/chummy joke, and another generally Lupine vibe in this post:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:

First off, it has been a while since I have played, and I decided to try and pull a Liq with individual post analysis/summary and an arbitrary suspicion number system but discovered I don't have the talent/time/energy to pull it off, and it's not really my style. So let's just ignore what I was trying to do and hit the reset button.

---

Further, I have noticed that in several of his posts, he gives off an air of being lost/behind the times, asks for explanations or recaps, and is generally playing the nOOb card, though by all accounts he is a seasoned player who has simply been on a long hiatus. I get a very strong buddying vibe from him in these posts. I can dig up the quotes if need be, but reading back through all this has been a lot of work already. On this most recent page, XpR points out that it appears BoT is grasping for straws in trying to possibly start a MasterWolf or XpR bandwagon; I got that same impression.

I apologize for the rather long-winded nature of this post, but there was a lot to get out. To summarize my suspicion list at this point:

quote:

---

Originally posted by XplicitR:
Yeah, that's clearly why. I stated that I wasn't going to vote for Morbid, because MM could just as easily replace him and I had someone more suspicious to go after. Your argument is trash, afterall I am the one who brought up that I would be willing to kill AGM round 0 and while that does not clear me, it does not condemn me.

---

quote:

---

I'm not saying he is a wolf because of what he said but I am saying it does not clear him. I give Bernek enough credit that he is not AGM who would obviously be making up the story about the car accident to elicit sympathy. An underhanded tactic that an underhanded goon like him would use.

---

quote:

---

So what you are basically saying is that, I killed someone I disliked round 0 and then separated myself from the major pile in order to protect myself?

---

quote:

---

And you are adding a second person, so that when they find out I am not a wolf, they can go for them? Looks like someone is making a hard reach to start a wagon.

---

quote:

---

As far as I am concerned, your vote so far has been for a citizen so you have already done worse for this town than I have. I would like to ask, what you think of the other 2 players who were not in the Morbid pile? Why have you excluded them from your "analysis"?

---

__________________
Stages of Death: Anger, Denial, Barganing, Depression, Acceptance, Burial, Decay, Haunting, Revenge, Evil Laugh

quote:

---

Originally posted by Gawain:
7) JoshSherman - Also didn't much like his post. He called Bot out on what he felt were likely Wolfish reasons for voting Morbid, and then agreed that a policy lynch of Morbid was the right move a few sentences later.

---

For two reasons, the first being the obvious one (it was the right move). I touched on my second reason in my next post, which is specifically a reason I'm not voting for B_o_T. I'm having trouble looking at B_o_T's posts from a neutral perspective. I can't help but ask myself if I'm only getting after him as it were because he's my best friend.

quote:

---

Originally posted by JoshSherman:
For two reasons, the first being the obvious one (it was the right move). I touched on my second reason in my next post, which is specifically a reason I'm not voting for B_o_T. I'm having trouble looking at B_o_T's posts from a neutral perspective. I can't help but ask myself if I'm only getting after him as it were because he's my best friend.

---

That's reasonable. However, fearing that your bias might lead you to suspect a citizen is just as dangerous as second-guessing yourself and possibly missing a Wolf. You are not the only one who suspects BoT. I am not suggesting a dog-pile at this point, but if you're worried about bias, then just air your suspicions and ask if anyone agrees with you. I do, for one, and I have zero bias towards BoT in either direction.

This is kind of an aside to what I want to talk about (who I suspect and why) but I think it is important to go over it--and it contains math... sorry.

There are some obvious reasons that spring to mind, they are:

1. PGB was on to the wolves, and they needed to shut him up.
2. PGB was not on to the wolves, and they shut him up so others would think #1 and be on the wrong track. (This encompasses all "frame-up" theories.)
3. They thought PGB might be the seer.
4. Some combination of all of these.

With 4 suspects at EOR and 7 suspects early in the round, clearly PGB had to suspect at least *some* citizens--it's very possible that the wolves wanted to encourage us to pursue them (#2). That said, with 7 suspects out of a list of 15 other players, and 3 wolves the chance that PGB had *no* wolves on his suspect list is:

12/15 x 11/14 x 10/13 x 9/12 x 8/11 x 7/10 x 6/9 = 12.31 % of no wolves

In other words there is a 87.69 % chance that there are wolves in PGB's early suspect list. (BRU, CAI, GAW, JS, MMY, MW, MOR). Now one of those suspects has been confirmed as a cit (MOR). This reduces the size of PGB's early suspect list (and the percentages) as follows:

11/14 x 10/13 x 9/12 x 8/11 x 7/10 x 6/9 = 15.38 % of no wolves

So there is still a 84.62 % chance that there are wolves in PGB's early suspects.

Include his late suspects (MW, FWY, JAZ, BB) in the list and his total suspect count for the round increases to 10 (of which one, MOR, is a confirmed cit.) With 9 suspects on his list, the chances that PGB suspected some wolves are very high indeed. I'll spare you the math, it breaks down like this (these are approximate):

Chance of exactly 0 WW: 2.8%
Chance of exactly 1 WW: 24.7%
Chance of exactly 2 WW: 49.5%
Chance of exactly 3 WW: 23.0%

Keep in mind these are odds--it doesn't mean that the people PGB didn't announce as suspects (BOT, B77/DAK, PD, TMB, XPR) have no wolves among them. For example if there is a 24.7% chance of 1 wolf on PGB's list, then the other 2 wolves are among the people he didn't suspect. Given it's a 1 in 4 shot, it's not all that unlikely. Personally? At present I think it does in fact break down as 1 on his list and 2 off.

But, since it is almost guaranteed that PGB suspected wolves this round, and he suspected cits, it's fair to say that both #1 and #2 are true on my proposed list of reasons. It's also fair to say, that since PGB suspected one or more wolves, the wolves might have thought he was the seer. Especially given his comment "my thoughts have changed since the lynch". The wolves aren't dummies, they know the seer submitted a name after the lynch, and they may have been under the impression that MM had already sent the seer the results of his inquiry. So they may have thought that PGB's 'changing thoughts' were a result of him being a seer.

So I think PGB died because the wolves thought he might be the seer, he suspected wolves, and he suspected cits. The latter point is disturbing--it means we can probably count on wolves attempting to steer us toward PGB suspects who were cits, being able to cite the fact that they were suspected by a confirmed cit. For example, if you think I'm a wolf, you're going to have to consider that any PGB-suspect I'm steering you towards might be a cit. That's just a risk you are going to have to evaluate for yourselves.

In the meantime, I think PGB's death provides us with another set of alternative R1 piles, giving us 3 sets now, and lots of ways to do pile analysis for R1 as the game progresses:

Pile 1: "Early PGB Suspects" - (BRU, CAI, GAW, JS, MMY, MW, MOR)
Pile 2: "Late PGB Suspects" - (MW, FWY, JAZ, BB)
Pile 3: "Unsuspected by PGB" - (BOT, B77/DAK, PD, TMB, XPR)

Yes, I know MW is in two of those piles. I'm trying to be accurate.

The Case for Battle_of_Twits

017. Jan-24 08:45 AM: signed up - (ref: nobody)
091. Jan-30 11:00 AM: Posts notes. Top suspects PD (+6), B77 (+4), BernieB (+3), Morbid (+3). - (ref: everybody)
120. Jan-31 04:34 PM: Condolences to Bernek. Apologizes for "analysis post". Agrees with Morbid- vote. - (ref: Bernk, Morb, PD)
124. Jan-31 06:29 PM: Thinks Bernek's "Good Luck Cits" all but clears him. - (ref: PD)
126. Jan-31 07:20 PM: Argues his case for Bernek = cit. - (ref: Bernk)
130. Jan-31 09:20 PM: Josh is a d-bag. - (ref: Josh)
144. Feb-01 07:11 AM: Last post was friendly jab. Sending in vote. (For??) - (ref: nobody)
148. Feb-01 11:20 AM: Curious about old theory that if wolves don't kill strongest player, then strongest player is a wolf. - (ref: Bernk)
181. Feb-02 07:27 PM: main suspicion is between MasterWolf and XplicitR - (ref: AGM, MW, Morb, PD, xplicit)

I think BOT might be a wolf. Gawain kind of stole my thunder here (actually Gawain, I largely agree with your entire post, excellent work). The "hey forget all that stuff I just said" post (#120 above) was one thing that set me off--a vanilla townie really shouldn't care how suspicious they look. The job of the vanilla cit is to hunt wolves and to die if necessary.

BOT hasn't played in awhile, but I do remember him playing when MM changed the rules so that there was no angel activity during R0. At that time I outspokenly (as always) noted that there was no good reason for a wolf team not to kill the strongest player R0. Since that time, I've come to the conclusion that the best reason not to do so is so that the cits will suspect that person.

Nonetheless BOT brought this theory up in R1 (#148 above)--despite the conventional wisdom that drawing conclusions about wolf-identity from the R0-kill is almost always a bad idea. At the time I felt that he was subtly angling the crowd toward the stronger players (Josh, PGB, myself, etc.), which was reinforced with his original point-system of suspicion, where I came out on top, lucky me.

Here in R2, BOT's very first post (#181 above) again revisits the "why is PD still alive?" argument. This is what he was aiming at in R1 but not as subtly. After Mafia-8 (and as evidenced by the successful wolf strategy in Mafia-9) there is a healthy residual of distrust for me among the populace. Stoking that fire appears to be a pretty obvious strategy to keep the cits distracted.

Another wolf-tell from BOT was the "sending in my vote, but I won't have a chance to post again before voting time" post (#144 above). I often do that as a wolf. Why? It gives you an out. It allows you to place a vote which, even if it becomes grotesquely suspicious later, you have an alibi for "sorry I wasn't around to see the seer reveal" or whatever. It also means you can state a case and not have to defend it for the curious, and subtly encourages the curious not to bother asking because you already told them they won't get an answer before the lynch.

And yet, he *was* able to post again before the lynch, and was conscious of the fact that this was a contradiction so he called it out with a little "yayy I get to post again" (#148 above). This felt like playacting to me--which I consider another fairly strong wolf-tell.

To summarize: I suspect (and in fact am voting for) BOT because he appears to be:

1. attempting to engineer wagons
2. overly (and overtly) concerned with how suspicious he looks
3. drawing conclusions contrary to game theory (wolf-identity from R0 kill)
4. creating preemptive alibis for absence at voting time which turn out to be false
5. playacting

In his defense the d-bag post felt like a typical cit post. Also, I found his call on Bernek's sign-off to be compelling--though this could be a case of buddying, or using his inside knowledge of who is a cit as an investment for future credibility (i.e. "See? I *said* so-and-so was a cit.")

The Case for TheMidnightBomber

016. Jan-24 05:41 AM: signed up - (ref: nobody)
088. Jan-30 07:54 AM: comments on PD's list - (ref: Bernk, Jaz, Morb, PD)

TMB warned us all he wouldn't be able to post much and would only have 30 minutes a day to devote to the game. Given this it is once again hard to ignore the fact that the wolf-kill AGAIN took a needlessly long time at the end of R1. If I were a wolf, and TMB were on my team, I'd be wanting to go over the kill with him... this would be possible through e-mail and PM, but arranging a live conversation would be hard since he is mostly not around. This would likely feed into game delays. If he were the wolf leader it would be even worse.

TMB's excuse for not being able to play is quite possibly true, but right now he's averaging a single post a round--this excuse gives him an out as far as not having to answer direct questions and so forth.

Almost 100 posts have come and gone since TMB placed his only in-game post. In that post he announced suspicion of Morbid- and me. His reason for suspecting me was that I did not suspect Morbid-. He argued that attendance should be an indicator of possible wolfiness (leading to the R0 kill delay) and cited Morbid-'s silence, while ignoring the silence of other players (BOT, BernieB). I thought it very weird that he was saying he would vote for either Morbid or me based on my non-suspicion of a silent player, while he simultaneously ignored two silent players. Not very consistent--but if I am right about BOT being a wolf, it would make sense that TMB would ignore BOT--no desire to draw attention to his buddy.

In that context, it sounds more like what TMB was communicating was what the wolves would like the cits to spend their first and second rounds focused on. This mirrors nicely with BOT--voted Morbid-, suspected me.

I questioned him directly on this apparent oversight, but he didn't respond. I called him out on it later ("please respond to my questions") and he didn't respond. He managed to get a vote in though!

This policy of stating a case but not arguing it feels wolfish to me--it feels like someone afraid to say too much because they might make a mistake.

To summarize: I suspect TMB because he appears to be:

1. a good fit for the wolf lag-time
2. avoiding engagement, unresponsive
3. holding contradictory suspicions
4. congruent to BOT

In his defense, TMB is a strong enough player that I would expect him not to let his RL concerns interfere with getting a timely wolf-kill in, precisely because it would be suspicious to do otherwise. Heck, as far as #2 & #4 go, being busy in real life would explain these.

The Case for Caitiri

014. Jan-21 03:38 PM: signed up - (ref: Cait)
054. Jan-29 12:40 AM: part 1, page 3 - (ref: Cait)
135. Jan-31 10:53 PM: Not voting Morbid. Voting silents has downfalls. - (ref: Cait, Morb, PD)
147. Feb-01 10:36 AM: If there were some way to, as a group, randomly choose someone to lynch I would be for it - (ref: Cait, Morb, PD, PGB)
154. Feb-01 04:24 PM: Discusses impact of policy lynch on pile analysis. Requests vote count. - (ref: Cait, Gaw, PD)
158. Feb-01 04:44 PM: I'm rolling a die. And the die says I am voting for...Morbid. - (ref: Cait, Morb)

Cait was clear that he felt it was more likely Morbid- was a cit. I think most people probably felt that way, and based on odds alone it was an 80% likelihood, but Cait seemed to feel the need to make it clear. This struck me as investing for future cred, that ability to point to someone you said was a cit and use that to your advantage later--even subliminally, which is how the best wolves do it IMO.

Then there was this minor turn of phrase: "I have nothing worth going on at this point in time [...] so if I need to be a sheep I can be." In classic tales and metaphor, characters are divided into two categories generally, lambs and lions, or sheep and wolves. While I understand that Cait was implying that going along with the policy lynch was being led instead of being a leader, this particular turn of phrase stuck out for me. I can't completely shake the "wolf-in-sheep's clothing" connotation this brings to mind. I don't think this is a strong indicator, but it bugs me.

Finally, after voicing his concern that Morbid- was probably a cit because a wolf wouldn't choose to be silent in our current climate, and voicing his concern over the effect on pile analysis of a huge Morbid- pile, he random votes into that pile?

Come on. How many of us, if we felt as Cait appeared to, wouldn't have simply rolled the die again? If he was so concerned that we were picking the wrong guy, and that we were messing up pile analysis, why on Earth would he join the pile and make things worse? I can think of one obvious reason--so as not to stand out. By being in that huge pile, Cait is one of a large number as opposed to one of a small number. This feels like someone trying to hide. That bugged me a lot.

I feel like my case for Cait is weaker than my case for TMB--I hate to base suspicions on minor turns of phrase and such. But to summarize: I suspect Cait because:

1. he contradicted his own message
2. he appears to be investing for future cred off inside knowledge
3. he made what appears to be a freudian slip ("be a sheep")

To be fair, Cait has a number of things going in his defense. He was right about Morbid, he was right to be concerned about the effects of a policy lynch on pile analysis, and he floated the idea of nondeclaration... which I think wolves would be loathe to float. And the random vote thing could just be an example of Cait's integrity--even though he didn't like the Morbid vote, he felt compelled to do what he said and vote randomly, even if that meant voting Morbid.

Other Cases

Two of my weaker cases fell apart with the revelation that PGB was a cit--I was suspecting PGB and someone else. I'd like to continue observing that other player for awhile before saying anything more.

PGB felt strongly about MW, but MasterWolf suspects my top two suspects. While I trust PGB was being honest I don't know what to think about MW. If MW is a wolf, it seems likely I'm wrong about BoT and TMB. Hence it might be worth it to lynch MW as an info-lynch, but I was in the zombie club with MW and I know just how infuriating he found AGM's game in Mafia-9. If he were a wolf, I have to believe he'd have kept AGM in, and if he were a cit, I fully believe he'd policy-lynch AGM before anybody else. At present I don't suspect MW.

PGB had milder suspicion of fwy that I don't really share.

And he had milder-still suspicion of Jaz and BernieB, largely for being quiet. It's a little unusual for Jaz (she tends to be more vocal) but it doesn't strike me as a tell because she tends to be more vocal when she is a wolf too! BernieB OTOH is typically a low-post-count player, and his posts are short and not typically adorned with a lot of analysis. For now I don't share PGB's suspicion of BernieB.

Jaz *has* had some RL issues that would be congruent with the wolf lag-time, so for consistency's sake, it would be silly of me not to suspect her if I suspect TMB. But my suspicion of her is waning (possibly because I feel like I have a raft of better suspects.) It's fair to say I still harbor low-level suspicion for Jaz.

Because his thought process seems to mirror my own, I find myself starting to trust Gawain. Gawain has also made the case that dakrum is probably a cit that resonates with me. Needless to say my nightmare scenario at this point would be if MW, Gawain, and dakrum were wolves.

Needless to say if I am right about BoT, I consider his case against XPR to be specious. If I'm wrong, he may have something there. At this point a lot of the cases I've built would be impacted heavily by the revelation of BoT's true nature. Another reason why I need to get answers about BoT.

In Closing

As a final minor point, questions have been raised about people who agree with arguments made by people they suspect. I feel this is a spurious argument, and can demonstrate it simply.

X says "I distrust Y."
Z says "I am a wolf."
Y says "I vote Z."

Wolves are going to try to be as much like cits as they possibly can, which means they are going to make solid arguments from time to time. If X in the above example refused to vote for Z simply because Y was, we'd probably all think X was a little crazy. Thus I don't think agreeing with an argument that comes from a suspect is a sign of subterfuge--there is the possibility that a player has taken their level of suspicion of the proponent of the argument into consideration and still feel that the argument is a good one, or there is the possibility that they are attempting to set a trap for the person they suspect.

And here come the tags...

{VOTING: BOT (wolfish behavior, playacting)}
{SUSPECT: TMB (wolf lag-time, contradictions, silence)}
{SUSPECT: Caitiri (contradictory, inside knowledge, freudian slip)}
{SUSPECT: Jaz (wolf lag-time)}
{SUMMARY: Provides suspect list. Voting BOT, suspect TMB (high), Cait (medium), Jaz (low).}

zc_request
{at}
seggelin
{dot}
com

quote:

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Originally posted by Gawain:
10) Caitiri - I found it odd that he didn't want to be in the Morbid pile, then a random vote lands him on Morbid.

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quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
The Case for Caitiri
Finally, after voicing his concern that Morbid- was probably a cit because a wolf wouldn't choose to be silent in our current climate, and voicing his concern over the effect on pile analysis of a huge Morbid- pile, he random votes into that pile?

Come on. How many of us, if we felt as Cait appeared to, wouldn't have simply rolled the die again? If he was so concerned that we were picking the wrong guy, and that we were messing up pile analysis, why on Earth would he join the pile and make things worse? I can think of one obvious reason--so as not to stand out. By being in that huge pile, Cait is one of a large number as opposed to one of a small number. This feels like someone trying to hide. That bugged me a lot.

And the random vote thing could just be an example of Cait's integrity--even though he didn't like the Morbid vote, he felt compelled to do what he said and vote randomly, even if that meant voting Morbid.

---

I'm going to address the issue of my voting Morbid (randomly) after expressing a desire not to just once; there's only so much I can say and nothing I can really prove. I can't prove to anyone that I honestly rolled Morbid randomly for my vote. When it happened I wanted to reroll, but I had decided to vote randomly and that included the chance that I could end up voting Morbid. I debated rolling again and excluding Morbid, but that would ultimately defeat the purpose of casting a random vote. I knew when I cast the vote that it would cause suspicion to fall on me, but I chose to follow through on my random vote in spite of this. If you look back at past games I have played you'll find that I am usually much more cautious about what I say and how I say it. Take it as you may, I'm not being as cautious this game. I'm not going to address this aspect of my play this game (voting Morbid) again, so take what I have said as you will.

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
Cait was clear that he felt it was more likely Morbid- was a cit. I think most people probably felt that way, and based on odds alone it was an 80% likelihood, but Cait seemed to feel the need to make it clear. This struck me as investing for future cred, that ability to point to someone you said was a cit and use that to your advantage later--even subliminally, which is how the best wolves do it IMO.

Then there was this minor turn of phrase: "I have nothing worth going on at this point in time [...] so if I need to be a sheep I can be." In classic tales and metaphor, characters are divided into two categories generally, lambs and lions, or sheep and wolves. While I understand that Cait was implying that going along with the policy lynch was being led instead of being a leader, this particular turn of phrase stuck out for me. I can't completely shake the "wolf-in-sheep's clothing" connotation this brings to mind. I don't think this is a strong indicator, but it bugs me.

I feel like my case for Cait is weaker than my case for TMB--I hate to base suspicions on minor turns of phrase and such. But to summarize: I suspect Cait because:

1. he contradicted his own message
2. he appears to be investing for future cred off inside knowledge
3. he made what appears to be a freudian slip ("be a sheep")

---

Already addressed 1.

As for 2, I just wanted it to be clear that lynching someone for silence when most people believe that person to be a villager is, in my mind, somewhat of a waste. If it's clear that the only reason for doing so is to discourage silence in the future then so be it, it would certainly be beneficial for future games, but it doesn't really help us this game. Again it was me being less cautious and more forthright with my opinions.

And as for 3, give me a break. It was merely a euphemism for conforming to the policy lynch of silent players. Calling out something so trivial as this makes me feel that you're looking for directions to lead the populace in lynching villagers.

More later.

-Caitiri

quote:

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Originally posted by Caitiri:
And as for 3, give me a break. It was merely a euphemism for conforming to the policy lynch of silent players. Calling out something so trivial as this makes me feel that you're looking for directions to lead the populace in lynching villagers.

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If it seems to you that I am looking to lead the populace to lynch villagers, are you saying then that my cases against BOT and TMB are specious?

If so, it would be very nice to get an assessment of who you think *is* suspicious.

@PD: I agree with some of your analysis about BOT. I think his playstyle this game is odd and he is acting like a n00b. There's one point I disagree on, about people caring how suspicious they look. Yes, cits shouldn't really care, but many do. No one really wants to die and be out of the game, they want to be able to participate. So, while I agree that cits shouldn't be worried, I wouldn't be suspicious of someone for doing so. I mean, if that's the case, why ask people to defend themselves then? Why not be suspicious of everyone who does defend themselves?

About TMB, If I remember his playstyle correctly from long ago, he never really posted much, back in the day. So, I don't really find that suspicious. I do find it suspicious that he would suspect one player for silence, and not others though.

About MW: MW is at the top of my suspect list right now. He hates silent players, but he himself hasn't really posted. He said that he has no internet at home, which I believe, but goes on to say that he'll post from work, "between 8-5". Since that post, he's only posted once. To say he hates silents. His last post strikes me as odd too. He lists people he'd "policy lynch" and then lists two of the same people in his "and we can't forget these guys". It seems weird. Also, @PD, if MW is a ww, I don't think that it clears TMB or BOT at all, and I find it odd you would say it did.. Also, this part of his post:

quote:

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Originally posted by MasterWolf:
Bernek: Wish you the best. But I don't think focusing on Bernek at this point is really worth it. We don't have enough info on him to work off of, and we have tons of posts by others to observe. Let's let dakrum play and post and we can judge him for what he says.

---

It looks like he's leaving his options open there. If b77/dak is a wolf, he can go back and say "see, I SAID this!" Which brings me to dakum.

About dakum: I don't remember much about how he plays, but he seems to be VERY combative and his idea that Josh is suspicious because he "agreed" with his suspects is really out there. Although, I do have to say that I don't think B77 would have had to foresight to add in "Good luck cits" either, if he was a ww.

A few other things: I also think that fwy is "playing nice" so far this game. He usually charges in and starts accusing everyone for everything they post, without much essence to it. Yes, he did that last game for a little, and then converted back to his old style later on. I also don't remember how BB plays, is silence OOC for him?

{SUSPECT: MW (contradicting himself, odd post)}
{SUSPECT: BOT (n00bish plays, odd behavior)}
{SUMMARY: Talks about playstyle. Provides suspect list. Suspect MW (high), BOT (med), asks some questions and disagrees with some of what PD states.}

I hope I got those right PD.

What about another tag for people who you're not ready to put up as your "suspects" but.. there's just something you feel is wrong about them, suspicious but not THAT suspicious. Kinda like the trust tag, but maybe distrust?

Thanks,
Jazaray

__________________
A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick:
There was a nice lassie named Jaz
Many wished to have what she has,
A delicate face,
A soft warm embrace,
And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.

I have more, especially about the kill, later.

As far as my current suspects, it would be impossible to not suspect B_o_T as his erratic play makes absolutely no sense, even to his best friend. The one thing I am worried about is if he pulled a Gawain from the last Mafia game and is just attempting to try a bunch of new things and in doing so painted a huge crosshair over his head. I also don’t like how everyone is piling onto him making it hard to get a good read on what people are thinking.

I am also rather suspicious of Jaz. It seems like she is being overly defensive to MW’s attacks, he only suspected her because of policy (you were rather silent) and for you to backlash against him seems scummy.

I do not suspect TMB as of now and really cannot fathom how anyone else is. He has posted a whopping one post, if you want to policy lynch him that makes sense, but drawing any other conclusions seems rather ridiculous.

quote:

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Originally posted by Jazaray:
First off, I'm a little surprised at you PD, for not remembering how I normally play. R1 I always use a kid to vote and I (rarely) ever change that vote. I don't really post r1 unless there's something compelling that I have to say. After some of lynches that have happened in the last few games, I was almost worried TO post more often, because I thought it would be seen as OOC.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Jazaray:
There's one point I disagree on, about people caring how suspicious they look. Yes, cits shouldn't really care, but many do. No one really wants to die and be out of the game, they want to be able to participate. So, while I agree that cits shouldn't be worried, I wouldn't be suspicious of someone for doing so. I mean, if that's the case, why ask people to defend themselves then? Why not be suspicious of everyone who does defend themselves?

---

quote:

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Originally posted by Jazaray:
About TMB, If I remember his playstyle correctly from long ago, he never really posted much, back in the day. So, I don't really find that suspicious.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Jazaray:
About MW: MW is at the top of my suspect list right now. He hates silent players, but he himself hasn't really posted. He said that he has no internet at home, which I believe, but goes on to say that he'll post from work, "between 8-5". Since that post, he's only posted once. To say he hates silents. His last post strikes me as odd too.

---

quote:

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Originally posted by Jazaray:
Also, @PD, if MW is a ww, I don't think that it clears TMB or BOT at all, and I find it odd you would say it did.

---

quote:

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Originally posted by Jazaray:
I also don't remember how BB plays, is silence OOC for him?

---

quote:

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Originally posted by Jazaray:
I hope I got those right PD.

What about another tag for people who you're not ready to put up as your "suspects" but.. there's just something you feel is wrong about them, suspicious but not THAT suspicious. Kinda like the trust tag, but maybe distrust?

---

quote:

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Originally posted by Bruised:
I am going to agree with PD’s assessment on the PGB killing, that the wolves killed him in order to bluff the fact that there are wolves on his suspect list. PGB was the only person who had a relatively long list of suspects and as such it makes sense to try to make us think that he hit the nail on the head, but since he was the only list, odds are he was wrong.

---

quote:

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Originally posted by Bruised:
I do not suspect TMB as of now and really cannot fathom how anyone else is. He has posted a whopping one post, if you want to policy lynch him that makes sense, but drawing any other conclusions seems rather ridiculous.

---

I'm not passing judgement either way, I'm just a little thrown by the "cannot fathom" remark. I thought I was pretty clear what I thought was suspicious about TMB.

quote:

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Originally posted by Gawain:

6) BoT - He posted his support for the Morbid policy lynch in the same post in which he said something I REALLY didn't like. I never did get an explanation when I called him out on twisting PD's words. He did, however, make a very self-deprecating excuse for his seemingly arbitrary point-based suspicion system, which was a very chummy backpedal in my book. I will quote the specific paragraph if anyone needs me to. (Further BoT suspicions listed below)

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quote:

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Further, I have noticed that in several of his posts, he gives off an air of being lost/behind the times, asks for explanations or recaps, and is generally playing the nOOb card, though by all accounts he is a seasoned player who has simply been on a long hiatus. I get a very strong buddying vibe from him in these posts. I can dig up the quotes if need be, but reading back through all this has been a lot of work already. On this most recent page, XpR points out that it appears BoT is grasping for straws in trying to possibly start a MasterWolf or XpR bandwagon; I got that same impression.

---

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
The Case for Battle_of_Twits
I think BOT might be a wolf. Gawain kind of stole my thunder here (actually Gawain, I largely agree with your entire post, excellent work). The "hey forget all that stuff I just said" post (#120 above) was one thing that set me off--a vanilla townie really shouldn't care how suspicious they look. The job of the vanilla cit is to hunt wolves and to die if necessary.

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quote:

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Nonetheless BOT brought this theory up in R1 (#148 above)--despite the conventional wisdom that drawing conclusions about wolf-identity from the R0-kill is almost always a bad idea. At the time I felt that he was subtly angling the crowd toward the stronger players (Josh, PGB, myself, etc.), which was reinforced with his original point-system of suspicion, where I came out on top, lucky me.

---

quote:

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Another wolf-tell from BOT was the "sending in my vote, but I won't have a chance to post again before voting time" post (#144 above). I often do that as a wolf. Why? It gives you an out. It allows you to place a vote which, even if it becomes grotesquely suspicious later, you have an alibi for "sorry I wasn't around to see the seer reveal" or whatever. It also means you can state a case and not have to defend it for the curious, and subtly encourages the curious not to bother asking because you already told them they won't get an answer before the lynch.
And yet, he *was* able to post again before the lynch, and was conscious of the fact that this was a contradiction so he called it out with a little "yayy I get to post again" (#148 above). This felt like playacting to me--which I consider another fairly strong wolf-tell.

---

quote:

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To summarize: I suspect (and in fact am voting for) BOT because he appears to be:

1. attempting to engineer wagons

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quote:

---

2. overly (and overtly) concerned with how suspicious he looks

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quote:

---

3. drawing conclusions contrary to game theory (wolf-identity from R0 kill)

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quote:

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4. creating preemptive alibis for absence at voting time which turn out to be false

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quote:

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5. playacting

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__________________
Stages of Death: Anger, Denial, Barganing, Depression, Acceptance, Burial, Decay, Haunting, Revenge, Evil Laugh

I'm starting to get a bit suspicious of Caitiri. I'm not suspicious of him of making a random vote per-se; I'm suspicious of him for not excluding or weighting players he thought was w00f and thought wasn't w00f. I think there was SOME information to use at that point in time, especially if you felt that Morbid- wasn't a w00f.

quote:

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Originally posted by Bruised:
I do not suspect TMB as of now and really cannot fathom how anyone else is. He has posted a whopping one post, if you want to policy lynch him that makes sense, but drawing any other conclusions seems rather ridiculous.

---

quote:

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Originally posted by Bruised:
In conclusion I’d like to hear from BernieB and TMB as I haven’t heard much from them the entire game.

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Morbid: Obviously not a wolf. I think that was clear to the majority of people. Still, a policy lynch R1 is not a horrible plan, I just think it probably should have been Jaz, since it was Morbid's 1st game and Jaz is a much more dangerous late-game player.

My double post: Sorry, I was posting by phone from class. I must have hit "submit" twice.

PGB/BOT: I feel like BOT is latching onto PGB's argument that since I dislike AGM I would have killed him R1. It seems like a legitimate point, so if BOT is wolf, it would make a lot of sense for him to chase it and try to start a wagon. However, what PGB and BOT do not know, and why I listed them as my suspects, is what happened last game, especially in the Zombie Club. You see, while watching from the sidelines as AGM trainwrecked the game for the cits, there was a general consensus that he would be the R1 policy lynch next game, because he tends to act as Mafia #4 late game. So let's assume I'm wolf leader (or PD is, or anyone from ZC): why would I waste a R0 kill on someone I knew I could easy get lynched in the early game? So while the argument that I dislike AGM and would like him dead might have been true in previous games, it just doesn't make any sense for this one.

Gawain's post stating: "First, I agree with those who have stated that there is very likely a wolf hiding in the Morbid- pile, and probably two of them."

REALLY? Really Gawain? You think that of the 10 people who voted for Morbid, there MAY be one or two wolves?

PD's post laying out the cases is damn well put together, and instead of rehashing it, I'd just like to point out that BOT and TMB are still among my top suspects, the former even more than before, and I think your cases against them is very solid, but only missing the fact that they would be likely to kill AGM R0 because they were not involved in the ZC last round, and they were not active during the R0 wait.

Now on to Jaz's post.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Jaz:
First off, I'm a little surprised at you PD, for not remembering how I normally play.

---

While we're talking about how you play, how about we mention that your posting in the first 4 rounds is usually very sparse, and we gather almost no info on you before the late rounds, where you jump in and use your great reputation on these forums to convince people you are innocent and/or that you know what you're talking about. I don't like it Jaz. You're too much of a question mark in these games. If it was down to 6 people left, and I was one of them, and I absolutely knew you were a wolf, I would not be able to convince the others to vote for you. And that is why I have to come gunning for you early for playing so silent.

quote:

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Originally posted by Jaz:
lists people he'd "policy lynch" and then lists two of the same people in his "and we can't forget these guys". It seems weird.

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The "Can't forget" was copying PD's list of those who had not posted between game begin and R0 kill. I had to list them all for completeness.

One of the reasons I came out strongly against Jaz R1 was to get her to reply and hope to glean something from how she replied. I find the defensiveness expected, but the counterattack scummier than I'd suspect.

quote:

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Originally posted by PD:
I'll have to go back and look at it again. Actually if he only has internet at work, that might also make him a fit with the lag-time we're seeing. Hmm.

---

The lag time has been during my work hours, sadly. One of the reasons for my low post count has been nothing to talk about during work because we're waiting for a kill. I'll see if I can borrow a roomie's laptop to check out MOTL once in awhile at night.

To summarize for everyone, my top suspects:

Tied for First: Jaz/BoT
Second: TMB