quote:

---

Originally posted by Bernek77:
PD I was around yesterday, I asked about the ZC, bottom of page 2.

---

quote:

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Originally posted by Bernek77:
Also, referring to last game. It was established that the kill took long cuz we were waiting on a replacement from Liq.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Bernek77:
You are one usually to say we can't look at last game for tendencies yet here you are this game doing just that. And I was the Mafia Leader last game.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Bernek77:
I see this kill to be all about setting people up and I am not liking it one bit.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Bernek77:
The only thing up to this point I can agree with you on is taking so long on the kill. Was it done on purpose, or are the wolves distracted?

---

He's chosen TheMidnightBomber, so that's who I'm voting for.

As for me being busy, there's been no deaths or breakdowns this week And I'm feeling better. I was around yesterday, but I don't think I posed on anything. I was posting earlier today though, if it matters.

Thanks,
Jazaray

__________________
A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick:
There was a nice lassie named Jaz
Many wished to have what she has,
A delicate face,
A soft warm embrace,
And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:
[QUOTE]]My guess would be the wolves are communicators and wanted to discuss their strategy. This is why I suspect the folks who have less time to be online--one or two of them on the wolf team and it would be hard to meet and work out a plan.

---

My initial reaction to the long delay in a selection for the Night Kill was that I felt as though perhaps the Wolves were having a difficult time choosing. I think it might have to do with the player mix this game. The current cast of characters is a fair bit different from what the scene has been as of late. We have several "oldschool" players jumping back into the mix, as well as at least one "noob" that I know of, maybe more. A few semi-seasoned players (such as myself), some recently active Vets, etc. My point is that the predictability for the course of events in this game may be somewhat obfuscated by this unique and rather motley mix of characters. For me I know that I'm dealing with a larger number of quantities unknown to myself than I have had on one plate at one time since my first game, and I'm sure it's at least somewhat the same for others, including the Wolves.

What I'm trying to say is that maybe it wasn't WHO they picked for the NK that took so long, or lack of activity on the part of the Wolves, but instead a desire to make sure everyone was on the same page in terms of who they feel is dangerous, what kills will spark the most confusion amongst remaining townsfolk and why, etc.

After all, sometimes the most obvious move is just another dose of WIFOM, and sometimes it's obvious for a reason, i.e. Bernek dropping Ryan R0 last game.

I think the AGM kill is jes a kill for the JOY of shredding him...

Some one wanted him out and having him out due to his game play as of late they have received great satisfaction from it... There were ALOT of players out to get him

PD would u happen to have a list of the guys in the ZC for the last mafia as I deleted all mine...

XPr, you didnt want him to join this game from jump....posts deleted by MOD.

@Xpr: Do you feel you may be a target for your comments towards AGM at the beginning of this game? (Before roles were handed out.)

and

Have we as Villagers benefited from his death? And if so how?

quote:

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Originally posted by fwybwed:
...PD would u happen to have a list of the guys in the ZC for the last mafia as I deleted all mine...

---

quote:

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Originally posted by MagicMystic:
So, guys, since I've been out of the loop, can you do a rundown on who's new, who's a regular, etc.? I don't want to write an explanation on thoughts only to find out that the person is a first-time player.

---

I will try to help to the best of my ability, but I'll need people to fill in some gaps for me and possibly/probably correct a few things:

AlamasterGM - Long time consistent player, but who cares? He dead.
Battle_of_Twits - I believe he's played many times before, but not for awhile.
Bernek77 - Long time consistent player.
BernieB - ? Oldschool player I think.
Bruised - ? New I think.
Caitiri - Oldschool pretty sure, hasn't played in awhile.
fwybwed - Long time consistent player.
Gawain - I have something like 4 games of Mafia under my belt. First WW game.
Jazaray - Intermittent, experienced player.
JoshSherman - Oldschool badass from everything I hear :P
MagicMystic - ? You tell me
MasterWolf - Long time consistent player.
Morbid - ?
PlasteredDragon - Long time, oldschool and more recent player with a largish time gap in between.
puregoblinboy47 - Oldschool player I do believe, but hasn't played in awhile.
TheMidnightBomber - I know he is not new, but not sure of his track record. Played in my first two games I think.
XplicitR - Long time consistent player.

That's what I got for ya, feel free (anyone) to elaborate, correct, etc.

quote:

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Originally posted by MagicMystic:
So, guys, since I've been out of the loop, can you do a rundown on who's new, who's a regular, etc.? I don't want to write an explanation on thoughts only to find out that the person is a first-time player.

---

Battle_of_Twits: veteran (been awhile)
Bernek77: veteran (regular)
BernieB: veteran (been awhile)
Bruised: first time
Caitiri: veteran (been awhile)
fwybwed: veteran (regular)
Gawain: newish (regular - 3rd game?)
Jazaray: old-school veteran (regular)
JoshSherman: old-school veteran (been a long time)
MagicMystic: old-school veteran (been a VERY long time)
MasterWolf: new veteran (regular)
Morbid-: first time
PlasteredDragon: veteran (regular)
puregoblinboy47: veteran (been awhile)
TheMidnightBomber: veteran (been awhile)
XplicitR: veteran (regular)

quote:

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Originally posted by Gawain:
JoshSherman - Oldschool badass from everything I hear :P

---

Thanks?

I believe that at least one of the people who complained about the holdup is a werewolf. I'm not sure who I want to suspect. That's a pretty large list.

Also, whether intended or not, it's pretty ironic that AGM would get eaten after I make the counterclaim that the first kill is the most important kill. I can't say that means something because I'm sure several people didn't want to play with him. FTR, there is only one person I would do that to and that person isn't playing.

High suspicion:
Medium Suspicion
Low/Medium Suspicion: PlasteredDragon, Gawain, MasterWolf, fwybwed, Bruised
Low suspicion: MagicMystic, caitiri

No read: everyone else

This is bound to change and it will likely change fast, but that's where I am right now. Mystic and caitiri get mention because they posted during N0, but did not directly address what was taking so long (unless I missed something, and I'm sure you'll let me know if I did)

There's way too many acronyms being slung around here. I have no idea if they are Werewolf/Mafia related or not. Anyone have translation for me?

As far as round one theories go, I've always considered AGM to be pretty good in games that I've played, but he seems to be the new Bernek. (no disrespect) Basically, a poor reputation as a cit. I've only sporadically followed the previous games, but this is the impression that I have. Based on that, the kill may have been made in an effort to have a more challenging game(kill off the weak cit). If that's the case, one WW is likely to be someone who's either only been in the game since I last played or someone who predates even myself and return from their hiatus.

Using this logic I'll narrow the names down a bit. I suspect one of the following:

Gawain
Masterwolf
MagicMystic
Morbid
Bruised
JoshSherman

quote:

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Originally posted by puregoblinboy47:
ZC? NK0? AFAIC? WIFOM? FTR?

---

ZC = Zombie Club - an email discussion group of dead cits where they can continue to follow and chat about the game.

NK0 = Night Kill on Round 0. A round begins with day-phase, the day-phase ends with a lynch, the night-phase ends with a kill (a Night Kill or NK). Since the game begins with a night kill, and round 1 follows, we say that first kill happened in "round 0". NK0 = night kill round 0.

AFAIC = As Far As I'm Concerned. Has nothing to do with mafia/ww.

WIFOM = Wine In Front of Me. Refers to an argument that can be as easily spun either way (and is therefore fairly useless). Like for example, Bernek saying he would never kill AGM in the night phase of round 0... because he would "never" do it, it makes the perfect cover if he were a wolf. Therefore the argument is fairly useless at proving anything either way. As far as the origin of the phrase goes: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUee1WvtQZU

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:

Given the lengthy delay in getting a kill in, I suspect TMB, Jaz, and B77--but it's not a strong indicator at all.

Thoughts?

---

Normally I look for this sort of post. To already have a list of 3 suspects round one is uncommon, and being a wolf makes that much simpler. In this however, PD's reasoning is sound, since the wolf kill was late you should suspect those with low attendance. For this reason it's somewhat more interesting that he didn't bring up Morbid for example.

As a side note, I was criticized and lynched many rounds ago for using a similar tactic. In the end the cits lost, and I turned out to have been right. I was more heavy handed in that I looked for players posts outside of the thread, but the reasoning was the same.

I am however, naturally suspicious of those who are wrong. Based on my own timeline, it would make more sense me being a wolf than Bernek or Jazaray, but the thing we have to take into account is that this strategy is only useful in picking the wolf leader. He's the one who pms the kill, so unless he's uncommonly meticulous(waiting to hear from both others) or he arranged a discussion with the other 2, he's the only late one.

quote:

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Originally posted by TheMidnightBomber:
Normally I look for this sort of post. To already have a list of 3 suspects round one is uncommon, and being a wolf makes that much simpler. In this however, PD's reasoning is sound, since the wolf kill was late you should suspect those with low attendance. For this reason it's somewhat more interesting that he didn't bring up Morbid for example.

As a side note, I was criticized and lynched many rounds ago for using a similar tactic. In the end the cits lost, and I turned out to have been right. I was more heavy handed in that I looked for players posts outside of the thread, but the reasoning was the same.

I am however, naturally suspicious of those who are wrong. Based on my own timeline, it would make more sense me being a wolf than Bernek or Jazaray, but the thing we have to take into account is that this strategy is only useful in picking the wolf leader. He's the one who pms the kill, so unless he's uncommonly meticulous(waiting to hear from both others) or he arranged a discussion with the other 2, he's the only late one.

I think I will be voting for either PD or Morbid this round, but I won't submit my vote till tomorrow morning. That is also when I will attempt to respond to questions and criticisms aimed at me.

---

Furthermore, if the wolf leader were a first time player, he might indeed not think to check his PM's right away (esp. since e-mail notification isn't working) and that would also explain the delay in sending in the wolf kill.

But he's not on the list because I don't have any strong sample data to suggest that he would be away from the game. B77's going incommunicado last game put him on the list. Jaz's recent RL troubles (now mostly over, I'm glad to hear) put her on the list. Your announcement that you had very little time to devote to the game put you on the list. I don't really have any sample for Morbid-, other than he didn't post while waiting for the game to start.

But if that were the only criterion I was going to use, it would be a longer list. Here's who didn't post after roles were assigned and before the kill was announced:

Battle_of_Twits
BernieB
Jazaray
Morbid-
puregoblinboy47
TheMidnightBomber
XplicitR

What's interesting is not that Morbid- is on this list--so are a lot of people, including people with attendance as low as Morbid-'s. What's interesting is that two of the people I had a reason for suspecting (real information suggesting they might not be available) are on the list--you and Jaz.

As I said, I never considered this a strong indicator--I'm not prepared to base a vote on so little at this time. But it's good that it is generating discussion.

If you deem an appraisal of attendance to be of merit, here is a post count report (remember, R0 is reported but not counted in the total):

code:

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Post Count Report
 
From: 001: 20-Jan 20:24 MeddlingMage - rules posted
  To: 088: 30-Jan 07:54 TheMidnightBomber - comments on PD's list
 
Living Players:
                      R0   R1  TOT   P/R
Battle_of_Twits        1    0    0   0.0
Bernek77               2    2    2   2.0
BernieB                1    0    0   0.0
Bruised                2    1    1   1.0
Caitiri                2    0    0   0.0
fwybwed                2    1    1   1.0
Gawain                 4    2    2   2.0
Jazaray                2    1    1   1.0
JoshSherman            5    1    1   1.0
MagicMystic            7    2    2   2.0
MasterWolf             4    0    0   0.0
Morbid-                1    0    0   0.0
PlasteredDragon       13    6    6   6.0
puregoblinboy47        1    1    1   1.0
TheMidnightBomber      1    1    1   1.0
XplicitR               1    1    1   1.0
 
Dead Players:
                      R0   R1  TOT   P/R
AlmasterGM             7         0   0.0

---

If low attendance is going to be an indicator, then I suppose we should be looking at all players with a post count of 2 or less, including R0. That would be BoT, Bernie, Cait, Morbid-, PGB, TMB, and XPR.

Eh. I dunno. It seems early yet to be talking about post counts--usually we use them to motivate silent players, but there's no precedent for people being expected to post in R0 (beyond signing up). So on that basis, I don't like R0-attendance as an important indicator--I much prefer the indicator I settled on--people who said they would be unavailable, or who have been in recent memory.

As you said, my reasoning on this matter is sound.

We have 2 random votes declared up to this point and a few suspects.

I would like to hear more from others. Up to this point I don't have any suspects.

__________________
How many times do I have to have sex with your mom before you realize we have something special.

MeddlingMage - Announces round one kill, AGM. +0

MagicMystic - Goes for the JoshSherman frame up, albeit with sarcasm. Asks for a list of experienced players. +1

PD - Mentions a JoshSherman frame up, suspicions of people who have little time for the game (TMB, Jaz, Bernek). +1

XplicitR - Mentions the JoshSherman frame up, says he would have killed AGM too. Asks for other leads. +2

Bernek - Questions PD. Says he would have killed PD R0. Questions AGM kill. +2

bruised - questions why xplicit would have killed AGM, says this could be a bluff for us to hang PD. +1

PD - Establishes ground for suspecting Bernek, Jaz and TMB; argues WIFOM against Bernek; "Don't let the wolves tell you what to do" +2

Bernek - Defends his position, attacks PD's thought process; says this kill is setting up someone, was the kill delay purposeful or not? +2

PD - clears bernek for not being around; does not want to suspect someone because of previous game's actions, AGM kill could have been a die roll, not a setup; "wolves are communicators" +1

Jaz - Let T.J. pick round one, TMB. 0

Gawain - Blames mix of new/experienced players for the NK delay. Says that they agreed that AGM was dangerous or his kill would cause confusion. +1

fwybwed - Doesn't like WIFOM, wolves express "joy" in shredding AGM, asks XPR if he feels he's being framed, asks if we have benefited from his death +3

magicmystic - again asks for a list of players and their experience levels +0

gawain - provides a list for magicmystic 0

PD - provides a list for magicmystic 0

JoshSherman - says someone who complained about the holdup was a werewolf; points out irony of R0 kill, suspicion list PD, gawain, Masterwolf, fwybwed, bruised, magicmystic, caitri +1

pgb - doesn't like all the acronyms, asks for translation. Considers AGM a good player, with a bad rep. AGM's kill was to improve game. Suspects Gawain, Masterwolf, MagicMystic, Morbid, Bruised, JoshSherman. +1

AGM - death quote 0

PD - provides acronym definitions 0

TMB - suspects PD or Morbid +1

PD - Responds to TMB, Post count; lists people who didn't post before the NK (I didn't post because I thought it was bad form to do so). Points out that me, BernieB and Morbid- haven't posted yet. Low attendance = wolf. Random vote for MagicMystic. +2

Bernek - asks for other's opinions +0

Current suspicion levels:
MagicMystic +1
PD +6
XPR +2
Bernek +4
bruised +1
Jaz 0
Gawain +1
JoshSherman +1
pgb +1
TMB +1
BoT 0
BernieB +3
Morbid- +3

First round suspect so far: PD. For all he's said about frame ups and low attendance, he goes for a random vote. Seems odd to me.

__________________
Stages of Death: Anger, Denial, Barganing, Depression, Acceptance, Burial, Decay, Haunting, Revenge, Evil Laugh

Xpr non response...

and

PD in on B77 atm. And with missing a post of B77, In regards to the length of time the mafia gave a name. It would seem as though he were trying to point out vocal Villager.

quote:

---

Originally posted by PD:
My guess would be the wolves are communicators and wanted to discuss their strategy.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:
PD in on B77 atm. And with missing a post of B77, In regards to the length of time the mafia gave a name. It would seem as though he were trying to point out vocal Villager.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by fwybwed:
@PD: Would I be correct in stating you are the biggest communicator here PD?

---

quote:

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Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:

PD - Responds to TMB, Post count; lists people who didn't post before the NK (I didn't post because I thought it was bad form to do so). Points out that me, BernieB and Morbid- haven't posted yet. Low attendance = wolf. Random vote for MagicMystic. +2

Current suspicion levels:
MagicMystic +1
PD +6
XPR +2
Bernek +4
bruised +1
Jaz 0
Gawain +1
JoshSherman +1
pgb +1
TMB +1
BoT 0
BernieB +3
Morbid- +3

First round suspect so far: PD. For all he's said about frame ups and low attendance, he goes for a random vote. Seems odd to me.

---

This kind of stood out to me, and bothers me a bit. Particularly the part where you imply that PD said Low Attendance = Wolf. He has been very careful so far to point out that his suspicions are extremely low, and more for the sake of stimulating conversation, as indicated when he said:

quote:

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Originally posted by PlasteredDragon:

As I said, I never considered this a strong indicator--I'm not prepared to base a vote on so little at this time. But it's good that it is generating discussion.

---

This, paired with this system you've created wherein each statement by any given person accrues X number of "suspicion points" smacks of an early-game propaganda campaign. To be clear, I think your point system is nifty, but I think that creating that impression could very well be the purpose. It looks well thought out, and since it's numerical (mathematical), it has the appearance of legitimacy, much like statistics can be manipulated to generate specific responses.

I don't have much else to go on at the moment, people seem to be doing a lot of careful probing and asking questions this time around as opposed to bombastic finger-wagging and flinging of accusations. Makes for a much more difficult crowd to read.

Mildly suspicious of BoT at the moment, and also interested in hearing more from the silents.

Also, what does everyone think of an R1 policy lynch against silents? We've never been able to make it fly before, but it seems we have a reasonable and relatively cool-headed crowd this time around. Thoughts?

quote:

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Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits:
First round suspect so far: PD. For all he's said about frame ups and low attendance, he goes for a random vote. Seems odd to me.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by PlasteredDragon in Mafia-9 (as a cit):
...in my history of R1 picks, a die roll has almost always served me best (as seer I pegged ryan as a wolf with a die roll, we bagged the cop last round with a die roll).

---

95% of the time, cits are wrong in who they vote for--but based on random chance the chance of hitting a wolf on round one is about 1 in 5 (20%). So why then isn't the cit rate of being wrong 80%? Because players aren't rolling a die... they are looking for something "suspicious"--and more often than not, no offense, they are full of crap.

Given the lack of information in R1, anything that leads one to suspect another is in most cases WRONG. My solution to this problem is to vote on a die roll and let the information accumulate--possibly changing my vote before EOR, possibly not.

Last game my random vote went to OGB, and after taking my time to observe, my vote switched to the mafia leader. Given that and what I've posted above a random vote should be no surprise at all. You'll note all along that I said my suspicion of B77, JAZ, and TMB was not voteworthy.

AFA your notes go, some of your summaries misrepresent my positions. I think you should perhaps go back and reread. I did not clear Bernek, and I did not say low attendance = wolf.

quote:

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Originally posted by AlmasterGM:
"An angel can illume the thought and mind of man by strengthening the power of vision, and by bringing within his reach some truth which the angel himself contemplates."

- Thomas Aquinas, "Bliss of the Way"

---

Villagers, I hope you took note of this quote!

~MM

__________________
I am MeddlingMage...YOUR Motl Survivor 11 Champion and 2007 Captain N award winner, and I approve this siggy!

quote:

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Originally posted by PD:
Yes. You state the obvious. I did after all provide a post count report didn't I? It's clear who the biggest posters are, at least at this stage of the game.

---

Yes, I know this is obvious...And yes I saw your PC report, but I was actually talking about the player you are as a whole, not in just in this game...I wanted to see your answer is all.

I am curious though as the defensivness and assumption that I was just taking this game in to account as you seem to have thought.

quote:

---

Originally posted by MeddlingMage:
Villagers, I hope you took note of this quote!

~MM

---

I'm not sure I understand what you're trying to say. When AGM made the quote, it occurred to me that he might be trying to say he was the Angel. However, you did not specifically mention that when you said he had been NK'd, and then you said this:

quote:

---

Villagers your votes are due Monday Night...that should get us in line for normal due times as long as there are no delays.

Then WW's, seer and angel will get me names for the next round!

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