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Author
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Topic: Werewolf: The New Breed.
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PlasteredDragon Member
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posted February 04, 2010 07:21 AM

The round 1 morbid pile contained 11 players, of whom one was slain by the wolves (PGB). Outside the MOR pile were 4 players (DAK, XPR, JAZ, MW). FWY has floated the idea that if 2 wolves hid in the MOR pile, then the remaining wolf would be among these 4, and given we have at least 4 lynches left, maybe it makes sense to pursue this pile.Will the non-MOR voters (DAK, XPR, JAZ, MW) please respond to questions 1-4? Would all players please respond to questions 5-9? (I will respond to 5 to 9 in a separate message.) 1. Do you think it likely there is at least one wolf in the non-MOR pile? 2. Do you think it's a good idea to pursue the non-MOR pile (even though you are in it?) 3. Assuming we pursue the non-MOR pile, and given you would probably want to be lynched last, what order do you think the other three members of the pile should be eliminated in? 4. Looking at your #1 choice, if you had to guess who his or her partners inside the MOR pile might be, what would your choices be? 5. What do you think of the possibility that by devoting so much thought/talk to the wolf lag-time, we may have clued the wolves into a useful strategy to keep us distracted? 6. Assuming for a moment that the conclusions drawn from the initial delay were utterly wrong, and that the wolves might be exploiting our expectations to misdirect us, where (or at whom) should we look? 7. Look at the following trios and imagine you are a vigilante. In each triplet you must select the player you would choose to execute--the criteria for your choice can only be based on likelihood of that player to be a wolf, NOT on your opinion of their value as a cit. Please do not skip any of the triplets, and choose ONE player from each. #1: Josh, dakrum, BB: #2: Jaz, TMB, BRU: #3: MW, BOT, GAW: #4: PD, XPR, Mystic: #5: fwy, BB, Mystic: #6: PD, Josh, Jaz: #7: MW, XPR, fwy: #8: BOT, TMB, Cait: #9: Mystic, GAW, BRU: #10: PD, dakrum, Cait: 8. Imagine for a moment you are 100% wrong about all of your suspects. Take a fresh look at the game and come up with a new top suspect, give a reason. 9. This is a hard one, but bear with me. Argue the case for why you are a wolf using the information currently available. If you object to answering this question, why? {SUMMARY: survey to spur conversation and get people to think in fresh directions.}
[Edited 1 times, lastly by PlasteredDragon on February 04, 2010]
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BernieB Member
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posted February 04, 2010 07:42 AM

quote: Originally posted by Battle_of_Twits: Whatever, apparently I'm awful and I'm just going to lead the wolves to a win. Vote submitted. I'll let you figure out for whom.
I have heard it said that many a truth is said in jest, or in this case in sarcasm. I am placing my vote for BoT.
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PlasteredDragon Member
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posted February 04, 2010 07:48 AM

5. What do you think of the possibility that by devoting so much thought/talk to the wolf lag-time, we may have clued the wolves into a useful strategy to keep us distracted?Obviously this has occurred to me or I wouldn't have asked the question. For all my advice to BOT about communicating to the wolves, it occurred to me last night we've been doing exactly that with our interpretations on the lag-time. If the wolves really were incommunicado players, and saw the suspicion garnered by their delay R0, why would they do it again? Could it be because we're on the wrong track with this idea? 6. Assuming for a moment that the conclusions drawn from the initial delay were utterly wrong, and that the wolves might be exploiting our expectations to misdirect us, where (or at whom) should we look? Given that, I would probably revisit the early posts during the delay and look at the eager players that posted multiple times, like MagicMystic and Josh. (Yes, I realize I would be one of the eager players too.) 7. Look at the following trios and imagine you are a vigilante. In each triplet you must select the player you would choose to execute--the criteria for your choice can only be based on likelihood of that player to be a wolf, NOT on your opinion of their value as a cit. Please do not skip any of the triplets, and choose ONE player from each. #1: Josh, dakrum, BB: Josh #2: Jaz, TMB, BRU: TMB #3: MW, BOT, GAW: BOT #4: PD, XPR, Mystic: XPR #5: fwy, BB, Mystic: fwy #6: PD, Josh, Jaz: Jaz #7: MW, XPR, fwy: MW #8: BOT, TMB, Cait: BOT #9: Mystic, GAW, BRU: BRU #10: PD, dakrum, Cait: Cait 8. Imagine for a moment you are 100% wrong about all of your suspects. Take a fresh look at the game and come up with a new top suspect, give a reason. MasterWolf - OOC play, fits the lag 9. This is a hard one, but bear with me. Argue the case for why you are a wolf using the information currently available. If you object to answering this question, why? Given my previously stated opinion of AGM's prior performance, it stands to reason people would expect me to leave him in the game and let him do damage. Therefore killing him would make a lot of sense--it would make me look innocent. As a wolf, my primary concern would be getting seered, my chances of making it to the endgame are extremely remote, and therefore I would try to engineer a sac play for myself so that my wolf buddies would also look innocent. To that end, an apparent disregard for my own suspicious behavior, arousing the suspicions of other players, would be in keeping with this strategy. Heck answering this question alone would fit well with such a plan. I pile voted on Morbid- probably so that I could hide, and because as he is a question mark I had no idea how to manipulate him or if he would be useful to me. In so doing I helped create an enormous pile to mess up pile analysis. I was the one who floated the theory about the wolves being incommunicado--precisely because I am a talkative player who is always around. Seeing how that theory resonated probably caused me to deliberately delay the R1 kill. I've buddied dakrum and Gawain, and even apologized to BOT who I am clearly trying to get killed, probably because he is on to me. As always, I'm in character, trying to appear helpful--posting reports, posting so much information nobody can read it all and thereby they just start to pay me a little less attention. Finally, the targets of my suspicion have been easy targets, as opposed to players that aren't already suspected by others. EDIT: {SUMMARY: Answers questions 5 to 9.}
[Edited 1 times, lastly by PlasteredDragon on February 04, 2010]
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MeddlingMage Member
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posted February 04, 2010 08:15 AM
  
Home sick today...will be monitoring as the day progresses.FTR, I would not have replaced Morbid- after 1 round of inactivity. Especially with how long the role players have taken, it wouldn't be right for him to just get 1 round. Who knows, he may have been more active after his real life things may have been taken care of. Votes are due tonight, so get them in! ~MM __________________ I am MeddlingMage...YOUR Motl Survivor 11 Champion and 2007 Captain N award winner, and I approve this siggy!My entire MtG collection is for sale! PM me if you'd like a list emailed to you!
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Bruised Member
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posted February 04, 2010 08:43 AM
  
A preemptive apology for a stream of consciousness post... Hmm I reread TMB's post and it is a bit suspicious, which underlines one extremely important point, I should never talk in absolutes. However, I still feel like it isn't enough to condemn him, if he again votes this upcoming round without saying anything I feel like he should be lynched immediately. I do not believe that B_o_T is a wolf, and that he fell into the same trap that Gawain and Zak fell into last game. However, I do not have anyone else who I suspect nearly as much as B_o_T as most of my suspicions are involved in specific spats that two players are having. I am highly suspicious of the MW/Jaz argument as Jaz comes off way too defensive and MW way too abrasive/offensive. I am suspicious of PD as he is still alive and it would seem that the wolves would want to shut him up. I feel like the R0 kill of AGM would make sense for him as AGM is a disruptive cit but one that seems to target PD a lot. Mainly because PD talks a lot and that's all it takes to be a wolf under AGM. I also found the argument between PD & MW to be highly contrived and would suspect the two of them if B_o_T ends up being a cit. The only problem I have with PD being a wolf is I feel like he is smart enough to use the delays to cover his trail, but the delays have been so significant that suspensions should definitely be coming. Which for someone so obsessed with these games would seem like something he would not be willing to handle. I would ask everyone else if XplicitR and Masterwolf are usually this angry of players? I feel like my vote will be between one of these two players based on what there usual style is. They both seem to be flinging angry accusations at everyone which is not helping the town out at all.
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Gawain Member
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posted February 04, 2010 09:35 AM

quote: Originally posted by PlasteredDragon: The round 1 morbid pile contained 11 players, of whom one was slain by the wolves (PGB). Outside the MOR pile were 4 players (DAK, XPR, JAZ, MW). FWY has floated the idea that if 2 wolves hid in the MOR pile, then the remaining wolf would be among these 4, and given we have at least 4 lynches left, maybe it makes sense to pursue this pile.Will the non-MOR voters (DAK, XPR, JAZ, MW) please respond to questions 1-4? Would all players please respond to questions 5-9? (I will respond to 5 to 9 in a separate message.) 1. Do you think it likely there is at least one wolf in the non-MOR pile? 2. Do you think it's a good idea to pursue the non-MOR pile (even though you are in it?) 3. Assuming we pursue the non-MOR pile, and given you would probably want to be lynched last, what order do you think the other three members of the pile should be eliminated in? 4. Looking at your #1 choice, if you had to guess who his or her partners inside the MOR pile might be, what would your choices be? 5. What do you think of the possibility that by devoting so much thought/talk to the wolf lag-time, we may have clued the wolves into a useful strategy to keep us distracted? 6. Assuming for a moment that the conclusions drawn from the initial delay were utterly wrong, and that the wolves might be exploiting our expectations to misdirect us, where (or at whom) should we look? 7. Look at the following trios and imagine you are a vigilante. In each triplet you must select the player you would choose to execute--the criteria for your choice can only be based on likelihood of that player to be a wolf, NOT on your opinion of their value as a cit. Please do not skip any of the triplets, and choose ONE player from each. #1: Josh, dakrum, BB: #2: Jaz, TMB, BRU: #3: MW, BOT, GAW: #4: PD, XPR, Mystic: #5: fwy, BB, Mystic: #6: PD, Josh, Jaz: #7: MW, XPR, fwy: #8: BOT, TMB, Cait: #9: Mystic, GAW, BRU: #10: PD, dakrum, Cait: 8. Imagine for a moment you are 100% wrong about all of your suspects. Take a fresh look at the game and come up with a new top suspect, give a reason. 9. This is a hard one, but bear with me. Argue the case for why you are a wolf using the information currently available. If you object to answering this question, why? {SUMMARY: survey to spur conversation and get people to think in fresh directions.}
PD....do you realize how utterly suspicious this one post suddenly makes you? You're the one who is always talking about how we can't let the Wolves manipulate us, we have to be certain that our actions are our own, etc. And now this. What could be more manipulative than springing a pop quiz on the entire remaining group? Herding us into a "classroom" as it were and popping the twenty questions out of nowhere? And then there are the implications for those who don't answer. I'm not necessarily opposed to answering your questions, as I have nothing to hide, but let me ask YOU, what prompted this pop quiz of yours? Why should we as a group feel obligated or otherwise compelled to answer you? If you were a Wolf, could there possibly be a better way for you to garner more information with which to manipulate the town? And, for those who refuse to answer, or simply ignore you, what in your book does that say about them?
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XplicitR Member
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posted February 04, 2010 09:48 AM
  
quote: Originally posted by fwybwed: Im saying that you wanting to replace Morbid so fast before we could even give him the benefit of posting before the round ended. Oh please, as if someone who was silent for the first couple days is all of a sudden going to talk at the end and be a contribution to this game. [QUOTE]Originally posted by fwybwed: As for Protown, you are imo trying to hard....to me its like you want everyone to see you status as a hardcore protown player. and it to is very overflowing, meaning you are trying to hard to early. Here is what you don't understand. I'm not protown, I don't want to die and then have the game just become silent. Something I am sure you could fathom. It doesn't matter to me if I die or not here but if you turn this game into silence again, how do we ever expect to win? [QUOTE]Originally posted by fwybwed: What gets me is why it was sed PERIOD! Yeah I guess saying nothing is clearly better  [QUOTE]Originally posted by fwybwed: So if you were a WW if you WOULD have shredded AGM R0, but here you state that you felt they wasted a shred on him??? before you knew he was the Angel...which you note. So now its not a waste??? I would have shredded AGM out of dislike for him, because I knew if that happened continually he would quit, just like he stated when he was killed R0 or R1 two games in a row. I have to note that I found out he was the Angel (MM did not post that when he posted the kill) because unlike you I don't edit my posts. I think that someone who edits their posts has something to hide. As a cit, I would have wanted him dead R1 (but probably would have gotten lynched by round 3), so in my eyes he saved us a lynch. Is that too hard for you to understand? [QUOTE]Originally posted by fwybwed: And i too want links to this Josh Bizness...I search a could not find anything.... I wanted to know from you what types of questions been asked and add please was it for this WW game??? you never provided...
http://www.magictraders.com/ubb/Forum12/HTML/016835-2.html "I thought the current games could not be discussed here." [QUOTE]Originally posted by fwybwed: Voting Xpr...atm
Good, I hope you do, and don't try to switch later if a better wagon appears for you.
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XplicitR Member
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posted February 04, 2010 09:53 AM
  
quote: Originally posted by Bruised: A preemptive apology for a stream of consciousness post... Hmm I reread TMB's post and it is a bit suspicious, which underlines one extremely important point, I should never talk in absolutes. However, I still feel like it isn't enough to condemn him, if he again votes this upcoming round without saying anything I feel like he should be lynched immediately. I do not believe that B_o_T is a wolf, and that he fell into the same trap that Gawain and Zak fell into last game. However, I do not have anyone else who I suspect nearly as much as B_o_T as most of my suspicions are involved in specific spats that two players are having. I am highly suspicious of the MW/Jaz argument as Jaz comes off way too defensive and MW way too abrasive/offensive. I am suspicious of PD as he is still alive and it would seem that the wolves would want to shut him up. I feel like the R0 kill of AGM would make sense for him as AGM is a disruptive cit but one that seems to target PD a lot. Mainly because PD talks a lot and that's all it takes to be a wolf under AGM. I also found the argument between PD & MW to be highly contrived and would suspect the two of them if B_o_T ends up being a cit. The only problem I have with PD being a wolf is I feel like he is smart enough to use the delays to cover his trail, but the delays have been so significant that suspensions should definitely be coming. Which for someone so obsessed with these games would seem like something he would not be willing to handle. I would ask everyone else if XplicitR and Masterwolf are usually this angry of players? I feel like my vote will be between one of these two players based on what there usual style is. They both seem to be flinging angry accusations at everyone which is not helping the town out at all.
This post seems so fake in an attempt to be "methodical". I have never seen you play on here before and looks like you are just using a pick and choose method to see which vote will make you the least suspicious. I'm not flinging accusations at everyone (I accused Josh round 1 on lack of better things to go for - and fwyb asked me to dig it back up in an attempt for him to start a wagon on me). Now I am accusing you, that makes 2. B_O_T and fwyb seem useless, but I don't really think they are wolves so I am definitely switching my vote to you. Voting Bruised.
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XplicitR Member
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posted February 04, 2010 10:03 AM
  
quote: Originally posted by PlasteredDragon: The round 1 morbid pile contained 11 players, of whom one was slain by the wolves (PGB). Outside the MOR pile were 4 players (DAK, XPR, JAZ, MW). FWY has floated the idea that if 2 wolves hid in the MOR pile, then the remaining wolf would be among these 4, and given we have at least 4 lynches left, maybe it makes sense to pursue this pile.Will the non-MOR voters (DAK, XPR, JAZ, MW) please respond to questions 1-4? Would all players please respond to questions 5-9? (I will respond to 5 to 9 in a separate message.) 1. Do you think it likely there is at least one wolf in the non-MOR pile? Yes, that seems pretty obvious based on how many players here know about pile analysis. 2. Do you think it's a good idea to pursue the non-MOR pile (even though you are in it?) Sure, although the entire time then the remaining seer should be focused on the MOR pile. 3. Assuming we pursue the non-MOR pile, and given you would probably want to be lynched last, what order do you think the other three members of the pile should be eliminated in? I don't mind going first. After me I would choose Jazaray, then dakrum then MasterWolf. This is of course based on activity and not suspicion and I would much rather have the more active player removed last. 4. Looking at your #1 choice, if you had to guess who his or her partners inside the MOR pile might be, what would your choices be? Considering I chose myself to be 1st, I would put Jazaray's partners as possibly Bruised and JoshSherman. 5. What do you think of the possibility that by devoting so much thought/talk to the wolf lag-time, we may have clued the wolves into a useful strategy to keep us distracted?
I don't think that really helps us though. It only helps identify the wolf leader right? If I was the wolf leader though I would definitely slow down the game if I knew about this prior to the night kills 6. Assuming for a moment that the conclusions drawn from the initial delay were utterly wrong, and that the wolves might be exploiting our expectations to misdirect us, where (or at whom) should we look? Who better than one of the old players like you, JoshSherman, and Jazaray (I know she is really devious) 7. Look at the following trios and imagine you are a vigilante. In each triplet you must select the player you would choose to execute--the criteria for your choice can only be based on likelihood of that player to be a wolf, NOT on your opinion of their value as a cit. Please do not skip any of the triplets, and choose ONE player from each. #1: Josh, dakrum, BB: Josh #2: Jaz, TMB, BRU: Bruised #3: MW, BOT, GAW: BOT #4: PD, XPR, Mystic: Mystic #5: fwy, BB, Mystic: BernieB #6: PD, Josh, Jaz: Josh #7: MW, XPR, fwy: fwy #8: BOT, TMB, Cait: Cait #9: Mystic, GAW, BRU: Bruised #10: PD, dakrum, Cait: Cait 8. Imagine for a moment you are 100% wrong about all of your suspects. Take a fresh look at the game and come up with a new top suspect, give a reason. If I was 100% wrong about all my suspects I guess I would just choose you, PD, because you would be the only strong player left who would be good enough to engineer that kind of situation. 9. This is a hard one, but bear with me. Argue the case for why you are a wolf using the information currently available. If you object to answering this question, why? I am really blunt and sometimes get too emotionally active. It definitely can come off as defensiveness and I never choose to sit back in the late game especially. This can look like I am trying to start a wagon on someone. {SUMMARY: survey to spur conversation and get people to think in fresh directions.}
See answers underlined above. I don't see how this post can be suspicious to you Gawain. Anyways time to go shopping at Burberry 
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dakrum Member
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posted February 04, 2010 10:04 AM
  
I can really only post until about 1PM EST due to being at work, so please bear with this. I can further explain anything if necessary.Where is TheMidnightBomber? This is starting to get annoying. The cases against Battle_of_Twits make a lot of sense to me (although I also question how quickly the push against him started so I will take a read back on those posts), and I generally agree with a lot of what has been said so far. I found the conversation between MasterWolf and Jazaray to be too contrived. An argument like that usually doesn't escalate and then suddenly come to an abrupt stop in the fashion that it did. When I was in the ZC from Mafia 9, I did learn that Jazaray can certainly let people have it at times and the spat gave me that impression. (Granted, I would have been a little mad and confused too). MasterWolf certainly didn't hold many punches back either. I was a bit suspicious of him before for not voting one of the three suspects he referenced because from a mathematical standpoint, voting for Jazaray in that position sucks. The spat really only increases my suspicions. Finally, I'm still suspicious of Caitiri as I mentioned earlier. My suspect list is as follows, and I'm currently leaning on voting TMB:
Medium-High: TheMidnightBomber (silence and answer to question), Battle_of_Twits (other presented cases) Medium: MasterWolf (older suspicion and spat), Jazaray (spat) Low-Medium: Caitiri (random vote mishap)
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Gawain Member
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posted February 04, 2010 10:12 AM

quote: Originally posted by XplicitR: See answers underlined above. I don't see how this post can be suspicious to you Gawain. Anyways time to go shopping at Burberry 
Because it manipulates the actions of the Citizens. PD asks questions, and either everyone is forced to answer, or potentially look suspicious for not doing so.
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MagicMystic Member
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posted February 04, 2010 10:18 AM

I agree with Gawain to an extent. The survey seems to, at best, confuse the hell out of people by making people post multiple suspicions, and draw attention away from this day's lynch, and at worst, give the w00fs a blueprint on how to kill people and feed off of the cits suspicions. I'm reading and rereading it, and, especially the grouping and new suspicion questions, it seems to serve no positive purpose for the cits.
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Battle_of_Twits Member
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posted February 04, 2010 10:30 AM

5. What do you think of the possibility that by devoting so much thought/talk to the wolf lag-time, we may have clued the wolves into a useful strategy to keep us distracted?I think it's a high probability. 6. Assuming for a moment that the conclusions drawn from the initial delay were utterly wrong, and that the wolves might be exploiting our expectations to misdirect us, where (or at whom) should we look? Players that are highly active, such as yourself 7. Look at the following trios and imagine you are a vigilante. In each triplet you must select the player you would choose to execute--the criteria for your choice can only be based on likelihood of that player to be a wolf, NOT on your opinion of their value as a cit. Please do not skip any of the triplets, and choose ONE player from each. #1: Josh, dakrum, BB: BB #2: Jaz, TMB, BRU: Jaz #3: MW, BOT, GAW: MW #4: PD, XPR, Mystic: Xpr #5: fwy, BB, Mystic: BB #6: PD, Josh, Jaz: PD #7: MW, XPR, fwy: XPR #8: BOT, TMB, Cait: TMB #9: Mystic, GAW, BRU: Mystic #10: PD, dakrum, Cait: PD 8. Imagine for a moment you are 100% wrong about all of your suspects. Take a fresh look at the game and come up with a new top suspect, give a reason. BernieB - he's been flying under the radar and is going for a bandwagon vote this round without much explanation. 9. This is a hard one, but bear with me. Argue the case for why you are a wolf using the information currently available. If you object to answering this question, why? I think it's pretty obvious that I've managed to stumble into several wolf-like behaviors, or at least it's being interpreted that way. I make a post summary, then I'm accused of being "inhuman" I change my strategy after seeing its flaws, so I'm backpedaling I find time between class and work to post after I didn't think I'd be able to, so I'm playacting. I ask a question, so I'm playing the noob card. I make an accusation based on evidence that I feel is strong, so I'm starting a bandwagon. I'm concerned about how I look to my fellow players, because that's how am, but I'm being overly-concerned apparently. I draw conclusions that don't go with the flow of game theory, which I have never read. __________________ Stages of Death: Anger, Denial, Barganing, Depression, Acceptance, Burial, Decay, Haunting, Revenge, Evil LaughOriginally posted by pyr0ma5ta: When in doubt, always go with the mom joke. It's classy, and you always win. There can be no comeback.
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Caitiri Member
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posted February 04, 2010 11:00 AM

{SUSPECT: PD} (SUSPECT: Gawain}Off to class. -Caitiri __________________ Dark Ritual count: 746
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PlasteredDragon Member
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posted February 04, 2010 11:02 AM

quote: Originally posted by Gawain: PD....do you realize how utterly suspicious this one post suddenly makes you?
You're asking me the wrong question. Ask me how much I care. Then go back and read some of the old WW games--you will find that (as a cit) I used everyone-please-answer questions to help create piles, catch contradictions, and probe the populace.Here's one example from almost exactly a year ago today (and BTW, the cits WON in WW6, and this post helped to identify the last wolf): 383. Feb-06 07:24 PM: PlasteredDragon - Information derived from consensus. Jaz suspicious for her response to the system. TMB still sorta suspicious. In order of suspicion rest of cits are BernieB/Monty/Kood. - (ref: BernB, ecto, Jaz, kood, Monty, PD, rev, Tnos, TMB) quote: Originally posted by Gawain: You're the one who is always talking about how we can't let the Wolves manipulate us, we have to be certain that our actions are our own, etc. And now this. What could be more manipulative than springing a pop quiz on the entire remaining group? Herding us into a "classroom" as it were and popping the twenty questions out of nowhere? And then there are the implications for those who don't answer.
You have three plants in three different rooms, getting three different amounts of light, being watered different amounts and at different times, and getting different levels of plant food. Which one is the inherently strongest plant? Kind of hard to tell isn't it?If you were a scientist, you'd solve the problem with a controlled environment. Make as many variables THE SAME as possible for each plant so as to remove those variables for the analysis--same light, same water, same temperature, etc. Now ask me again what the benefit of having all the players answer the same questions are? Right now the players are choosing what they want to say and when they want to say it. I'm simply asking a consistent set of questions. Do you not think that something that generates conversation like this is a good thing? Secondly, PLAYERS GET TUNNELED. We *ALL* do, we get focussed on our primary suspects and ignore glaring issues with other players. I just about tore my hair out in the zombie club last game watching gaffes just float by the populace unnoticed. Another purpose to this survey is to get players to take off the goggles for a minute and think about the game in a different way. Nobody is forcing you to change your mind about who you suspect, but just stopping for a moment to imagine "what if I were wrong" can be very illuminating. And having people talk about it can also be illuminating. Asking people to take a pop quiz is not manipulative, unless you think the quiz questions themselves are manipulative. If so, knock yourself out and vote for me, you know how much I care about THAT. I've been suspected for so many daft reasons since I started playing this game a couple years ago that I can't be bothered by that sort of thing. Besides, if the questions reveal the thought processes of the other players as they say why they think they are manipulative? Good. More information to analyze. quote: Originally posted by Gawain: I'm not necessarily opposed to answering your questions
Then do so and stop beating around the bush.quote: Originally posted by Gawain: as I have nothing to hide, but let me ask YOU, what prompted this pop quiz of yours?
It's all right there in black and white. I know you can read it as well as anyone else. I've been rethinking some of the prevailing theories about what the wolf team must be like, and wondering if we (a) got it completely wrong and (b) gave the wolves a strategy to follow. I want to make sure we aren't missing anything--keep the conversation going, get fresh information out there. "survey to spur conversation and get people to think in fresh directions" seems to sum that up just fine don't you think?That plus what I explained to you above covers it. quote: Originally posted by Gawain: Why should we as a group feel obligated or otherwise compelled to answer you?
What difference does it make that I asked the questions? The answers aren't for me, they are for everyone. True, if people answer them all without making a big fuss about it, I'll have some data to crunch that might tell me some things, which I will immediately share.But already the survey has done some good: How did it become "us the group versus PD" just now? That's rather subtly sleazy of you Gawain. I'm just putting forth something that allows ALL OF US to see all the other players in a controlled environment for comparison--I really find your objections baffling. Answer the questions or don't. Imagine for 10 seconds I hadn't made it a survey and I hadn't asked EVERYONE to respond. Imagine I had just asked you? Wouldn't you look extremely suspicious by simply refusing to answer any of the questions and instead get on my case for asking you questions? I find the ease with which you turned a simple request into an us-versus-PD contest both impressive and disturbing. What are you afraid of? Here's something else to consider: what if there are a couple players I suspect, but I don't want them to know I suspect them. By presenting a set of questions and saying "hey everyone, answer these" I get the sample data from my suspects without cluing them in that they are my suspects. Clever huh? What is this game if not an investigation? What is interrogation if not one of our primary tools? quote: Originally posted by Gawain: If you were a Wolf, could there possibly be a better way for you to garner more information with which to manipulate the town?
A better way than standing up in front of the entire town and saying, please answer this peculiar questionnaire? Don't YOU think there would be a better way? Get real, Gawain.quote: Originally posted by Gawain: And, for those who refuse to answer, or simply ignore you, what in your book does that say about them?
What difference does it make? Here's a bright idea, try not answering and see.One thing I've done repeatedly in the history of my "WW-career" is try to bring ideas to the game that move the crowd--not necessarily to force them to vote a particular way or suspect a person, but just to make them move out of their comfort zone. AGM chose to do this by being mean to people--which I think is of limited use, creates bad sentiments, and reduces ones credibility. But that doesn't mean that getting people to move around, talk, look at things in a new way, is a bad idea. Why do this? Why push people out of their comfort zone? Because some of them are wolves--they settle on a plan and try to make it work. They have a coalition, they all trust each other, they always work together. What they have on the cits is that we don't trust each other, we don't work together--we have no coalition. ANYTHING I can do that disrupts the normal sort of things that wolves rely on is a GOOD THING... even if it gets me strung up. Honestly? It may be a little perverse of me but I *like* to get strung up after I feel I've made some good contributions. *Maybe* those people who were so damn sure of themselves will suddenly remember we're all usually wrong and start looking in a fresh direction.
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MasterWolf Member
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posted February 04, 2010 11:17 AM

I love the questions, cause it makes people talk and helps us catch mistakes. Although it does seem like PD is trying to subtley push for lynching the non-MOR pile and keeping his own pile huge. Worth noting.1. Do you think it likely there is at least one wolf in the non-MOR pile? No. I think it's 50-50 whether there is a wolf there or not. While convention states that all the wolves shouldn't vote together, A) they did last game and B) I think they expected almost everyone to vote Morbid, and didn't want to be part of a 2 man outlier. So I would not say it's "likely" but I do think it's possible. 2. Do you think it's a good idea to pursue the non-MOR pile (even though you are in it?) Not really. Although I think it's probably a good idea to lynch Jaz early, and XPR has thrown off some scumminess. I would take out BOT and TMB, and then the non-MOR pile. I still suspect BOT and TMB for the case I made against them early, and I think one of them is the mafia leader. 3. Assuming we pursue the non-MOR pile, and given you would probably want to be lynched last, what order do you think the other three members of the pile should be eliminated in? JAZ, XPR, DAK 4. Looking at your #1 choice, if you had to guess who his or her partners inside the MOR pile might be, what would your choices be? JAZ, BOT, BB (random guess on that one. but seems like as fine a choice as any other. 5. What do you think of the possibility that by devoting so much thought/talk to the wolf lag-time, we may have clued the wolves into a useful strategy to keep us distracted? I don't think we are devoting too much time to it. In fact, it hasn't really done us anything so far. Both BOT and TMB are still around, and I think they are the prime candidates for lag-time. The argument against me doesn't make any sense cause I was sitting here waiting for the kill to be announced both rounds, active both in this post and on the forums. Morbid was lynched cause he didn't even post once. I think that after this round, the lag-time will become just a footnote and we'll be focusing more on voting patterns and speech mistakes. 6. Assuming for a moment that the conclusions drawn from the initial delay were utterly wrong, and that the wolves might be exploiting our expectations to misdirect us, where (or at whom) should we look? The people who could be that tricky: PD Josh Jaz Mystic 7. Look at the following trios and imagine you are a vigilante. In each triplet you must select the player you would choose to execute--the criteria for your choice can only be based on likelihood of that player to be a wolf, NOT on your opinion of their value as a cit. Please do not skip any of the triplets, and choose ONE player from each. #1: Josh, dakrum, BB: BB #2: Jaz, TMB, BRU: TMB #3: MW, BOT, GAW: BOT #4: PD, XPR, Mystic: XPR #5: fwy, BB, Mystic: Mystic #6: PD, Josh, Jaz: PD #7: MW, XPR, fwy: XPR #8: BOT, TMB, Cait: BOT #9: Mystic, GAW, BRU: Mystic #10: PD, dakrum, Cait: PD 8. Imagine for a moment you are 100% wrong about all of your suspects. Take a fresh look at the game and come up with a new top suspect, give a reason. fwybwed has made some good arguments and I almost have agreed with him on a couple points. That is wierd. 9. This is a hard one, but bear with me. Argue the case for why you are a wolf using the information currently available. If you object to answering this question, why?
I disliked AGM and he died R0. I suspected PGB and he died R1. I've been a super dick which is OOC for me. __________________ nderdog: Why do I have a feeling that people wouldn't be so interested in checking out new hobbies if it didn't involve boobies? ----------------- Co-Champion - 2009 MOTL Fantasy Football 2nd Place - 2003 MOTL Fantasy Football
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PlasteredDragon Member
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posted February 04, 2010 12:13 PM

quote: Originally posted by Caitiri: {SUSPECT: PD} (SUSPECT: Gawain}Off to class. -Caitiri
Your second tag begins with a parenthesis "(" instead of a curly brace "{". The tracker didn't pick it up so I hand entered it. Thanks for using the tags! Just be careful about the format.MM has said that I can run the next game, and when that happens I'd like to use the VOTING tag to record votes and obviate the need for PM's unless players want to make undeclared votes. {SUMMARY: dude can't shut up about tracker tags}
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PlasteredDragon Member
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posted February 04, 2010 12:19 PM

quote: Originally posted by MasterWolf: I love the questions, cause it makes people talk and helps us catch mistakes. Although it does seem like PD is trying to subtley push for lynching the non-MOR pile and keeping his own pile huge. Worth noting.
Good for you MW. Actually I'm interested in getting the take made by the non-MOR voters on fwy's theory. I haven't said whether or not I agree with the theory, and my currently declared vote is actually *in* the MOR pile. But that was a thoughtful comment you made without being abrasive.Nice to have the old you back.  {SUMMARY: responds to MW's observation about survey}
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Jazaray Moderator
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posted February 04, 2010 12:35 PM

quote: Originally posted by PlasteredDragon: The round 1 morbid pile contained 11 players, of whom one was slain by the wolves (PGB). Outside the MOR pile were 4 players (DAK, XPR, JAZ, MW). FWY has floated the idea that if 2 wolves hid in the MOR pile, then the remaining wolf would be among these 4, and given we have at least 4 lynches left, maybe it makes sense to pursue this pile.Will the non-MOR voters (DAK, XPR, JAZ, MW) please respond to questions 1-4? Would all players please respond to questions 5-9? (I will respond to 5 to 9 in a separate message.) 1. Do you think it likely there is at least one wolf in the non-MOR pile? 2. Do you think it's a good idea to pursue the non-MOR pile (even though you are in it?) 3. Assuming we pursue the non-MOR pile, and given you would probably want to be lynched last, what order do you think the other three members of the pile should be eliminated in? 4. Looking at your #1 choice, if you had to guess who his or her partners inside the MOR pile might be, what would your choices be? 5. What do you think of the possibility that by devoting so much thought/talk to the wolf lag-time, we may have clued the wolves into a useful strategy to keep us distracted? 6. Assuming for a moment that the conclusions drawn from the initial delay were utterly wrong, and that the wolves might be exploiting our expectations to misdirect us, where (or at whom) should we look? 7. Look at the following trios and imagine you are a vigilante. In each triplet you must select the player you would choose to execute--the criteria for your choice can only be based on likelihood of that player to be a wolf, NOT on your opinion of their value as a cit. Please do not skip any of the triplets, and choose ONE player from each. #1: Josh, dakrum, BB: #2: Jaz, TMB, BRU: #3: MW, BOT, GAW: #4: PD, XPR, Mystic: #5: fwy, BB, Mystic: #6: PD, Josh, Jaz: #7: MW, XPR, fwy: #8: BOT, TMB, Cait: #9: Mystic, GAW, BRU: #10: PD, dakrum, Cait: 8. Imagine for a moment you are 100% wrong about all of your suspects. Take a fresh look at the game and come up with a new top suspect, give a reason. 9. This is a hard one, but bear with me. Argue the case for why you are a wolf using the information currently available. If you object to answering this question, why? {SUMMARY: survey to spur conversation and get people to think in fresh directions.}
1. Yes, I do 2. Yes, and I said that already. 3. MW, XPR, DAK 4. BOT and XPR 5. I think it's a good possibility. 6. I still think we should look at MW. 7. #1: Josh, dakrum, BB: dak #2: Jaz, TMB, BRU: TMB #3: MW, BOT, GAW: MW #4: PD, XPR, Mystic: XPR #5: fwy, BB, Mystic: fwy #6: PD, Josh, Jaz: PD #7: MW, XPR, fwy: MW #8: BOT, TMB, Cait: BOT #9: Mystic, GAW, BRU: GAW #10: PD, dakrum, Cait: PD 8. XPR. He's still arguing over the "replacement" thing with fwy. He's stating that he doesn't think anyone would not talk to for two day and then suddenly talk, but forgets that MW did this already. Without B77 in the game to insult and argue with, he's gone after BOT in much the same way, like he NEEDS someone to insult/argue with, to stay IC. Now, all of a sudden, he's NOT voting BOT, he's voting for Bruised, without even mentioning him before. He listed me and dak as second and third on his list, "based on activity and not suspicion and I would much rather have the more active player removed last." when both dak and I have been more active then MW. 9. Wow. You sure don't pull any punches do you PD. I'm not sure I'm able to do this one, but I'll try. Last game, I had a lot of RL issues come up that caused me not to post as much. Maybe I have more, which could be the reason for the delay. I'm apparently nice and people would have problems voting for me, so I could manipulate the town that way, I guess. I've been told I was overly defensive by a couple of people (although, I STILL don't see it ) so, maybe I'm trying too hard. I'm sorry PD, that's all I can come up with. It's a difficult question. Thanks, Jazaray __________________ A Plastered Dragon Original Limerick: There was a nice lassie named Jaz Many wished to have what she has, A delicate face, A soft warm embrace, And a whole lot of bedroom pizzazz.WeedIan: Jazaray is like MOTL's Mom.
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MasterWolf Member
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posted February 04, 2010 12:44 PM

quote: Originally posted by Jazaray: He listed me and dak as second and third on his list, "based on activity and not suspicion and I would much rather have the more active player removed last." when both dak and I have been more active then MW.
PD, can we get a post count since roles were announced(not including this one)? Thanks. Edit: Actually, can you go ahead and list my post breakdown also. I just want it out into the open so I don't keep getting called out for something that never happened. __________________ nderdog: Why do I have a feeling that people wouldn't be so interested in checking out new hobbies if it didn't involve boobies? ----------------- Co-Champion - 2009 MOTL Fantasy Football 2nd Place - 2003 MOTL Fantasy Football
[Edited 1 times, lastly by MasterWolf on February 04, 2010]
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PlasteredDragon Member
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posted February 04, 2010 12:54 PM

quote: Originally posted by MasterWolf: PD, can we get a post count since roles were announced(not including this one)? Thanks.Edit: Actually, can you go ahead and list my post breakdown also. I just want it out into the open so I don't keep getting called out for something that never happened.
Sure MW. Here's the current post count:code:
Post Count Report From: 001: 20-Jan 20:24 MeddlingMage - rules posted To: 245: 04-Feb 12:44 MasterWolf - Requests post count, and post ... Living Players: R0 R1 R2 TOT P/R Battle_of_Twits 1 7 7 14 7.0 Bernek77 2 8 2 10 5.0 BernieB 1 3 2 5 2.5 Bruised 2 2 2 4 2.0 Caitiri 2 4 2 6 3.0 fwybwed 2 5 3 8 4.0 Gawain 4 8 5 13 6.5 Jazaray 2 2 4 6 3.0 JoshSherman 5 7 4 11 5.5 MagicMystic 7 7 2 9 4.5 MasterWolf 4 4 7 11 5.5 PlasteredDragon 13 28 17 45 22.5 TheMidnightBomber 1 1 0 1 0.5 XplicitR 1 7 8 15 7.5 Dead Players: R0 R1 R2 TOT P/R AlmasterGM 7 0 0.0 Morbid- 1 1 1 1.0 puregoblinboy47 1 8 8 8.0
And here's your post list:012. Jan-21 10:00 AM: signed up - (ref: nobody) 055. Jan-29 07:19 AM: part 1, page 3 - (ref: Jaz, Morb) 059. Jan-29 01:07 PM: part 1, page 3 - (ref: Cait, TMB) 065. Jan-29 01:34 PM: part 1, page 3 - (ref: Mystic) 143. Feb-01 06:51 AM: no internet access at the house right now - (ref: nobody) 151. Feb-01 12:31 PM: So, after all that stuff, my top three suspects are: PGB, TMB, BOT - (ref: AGM, BOT, Bernk, BernB, Jaz, Mystic, Morb, PGB, TMB, xplicit) 159. Feb-01 04:47 PM: Voting jaz is not scumhunting... but policy - (ref: Jaz) 160. Feb-01 04:47 PM: Voting jaz is not scumhunting... but policy - (ref: Jaz) 193. Feb-03 07:29 AM: JAZARAY suspects me for not posting much and then accuses ME of being contradictory? - (ref: Jaz) 200. Feb-03 10:36 AM: Comments on the round so far. Suspects Jaz, BOT, TMB. - (ref: AGM, BOT, Gaw, Jaz, Morb, PD, PGB, TMB) 205. Feb-03 12:47 PM: clarifies--Jaz doesn't *use* her rep of being a sweetie, but people *are* taken in by it - (ref: Jaz) 208. Feb-03 01:07 PM: I don't see what the point is of all that mathematical information. - (ref: Morb) 211. Feb-03 01:42 PM: Apologizes. Voting either BoT or Jaz. - (ref: BOT, Jaz) 241. Feb-04 11:17 AM: love the questions, though it seems like PD is trying to push the non-MOR pile and keep his own pile huge - (ref: everybody) 245. Feb-04 12:44 PM: Requests post count, and post link list for himself. - (ref: Jaz, PD) {SUMMARY: post count report, MW's post list}
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MasterWolf Member
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posted February 04, 2010 01:08 PM

Thanks PD. If anyone would like to address any part of my posting history, there you have the stats.I'm leaning more and more towards Jaz being a wolf. But I am sticking to my top suspect, BOT, for now. __________________ nderdog: Why do I have a feeling that people wouldn't be so interested in checking out new hobbies if it didn't involve boobies? ----------------- Co-Champion - 2009 MOTL Fantasy Football 2nd Place - 2003 MOTL Fantasy Football
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XplicitR Member
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posted February 04, 2010 01:39 PM
  
quote: Originally posted by Jazaray: 1. Yes, I do2. Yes, and I said that already. 3. MW, XPR, DAK 4. BOT and XPR 5. I think it's a good possibility. 6. I still think we should look at MW. 7. #1: Josh, dakrum, BB: dak #2: Jaz, TMB, BRU: TMB #3: MW, BOT, GAW: MW #4: PD, XPR, Mystic: XPR #5: fwy, BB, Mystic: fwy #6: PD, Josh, Jaz: PD #7: MW, XPR, fwy: MW #8: BOT, TMB, Cait: BOT #9: Mystic, GAW, BRU: GAW #10: PD, dakrum, Cait: PD 8. XPR. He's still arguing over the "replacement" thing with fwy. He's stating that he doesn't think anyone would not talk to for two day and then suddenly talk, but forgets that MW did this already. Without B77 in the game to insult and argue with, he's gone after BOT in much the same way, like he NEEDS someone to insult/argue with, to stay IC. Now, all of a sudden, he's NOT voting BOT, he's voting for Bruised, without even mentioning him before. He listed me and dak as second and third on his list, "based on activity and not suspicion and I would much rather have the more active player removed last." when both dak and I have been more active then MW. 9. Wow. You sure don't pull any punches do you PD. I'm not sure I'm able to do this one, but I'll try. Last game, I had a lot of RL issues come up that caused me not to post as much. Maybe I have more, which could be the reason for the delay. I'm apparently nice and people would have problems voting for me, so I could manipulate the town that way, I guess. I've been told I was overly defensive by a couple of people (although, I STILL don't see it ) so, maybe I'm trying too hard. I'm sorry PD, that's all I can come up with. It's a difficult question. Thanks, Jazaray
Jazaray, while I appreciate your analysis, you tend to be a real liability in the late game because you average about 1-2 posts per round. That gives everyone little to work with when looking for scum. Also I don't NEED to argue with anyone to be IC just like you don't NEED to keep silent for half the game.
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XplicitR Member
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posted February 04, 2010 01:43 PM
  
Also Jaz, please go read Bruised's post above and tell me you don't think that its a fake. I would much rather go on my gut instinct about Bruised than I would about someone who has just made himself out to be clueless the entire round (BOT). You have no reason to be so defensive that I stated that I would want you voted out of the list first because you are one of those people I can never get a read on, and its because your contributions to the discussion are very limited and are infrequent. MasterWolf is definitely a more active player than you despite what he has shown in round 1. Its nothing personal.
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fwybwed Member
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posted February 04, 2010 02:42 PM

5. What do you think of the possibility that by devoting so much thought/talk to the wolf lag-time, we may have clued the wolves into a useful strategy to keep us distracted?[/b]
A. It could be a ploy to create some sort of smoke screen. But imo I feel we need to weed out the silent or non active as avoid this situation. The lag time in submitting seems to be a strategy for now but non the less we all came with a plan for the policy lynch and it always seems to fall to the side.6. Assuming for a moment that the conclusions drawn from the initial delay were utterly wrong, and that the wolves might be exploiting our expectations to misdirect us, where (or at whom) should we look? A. If we are wrong, we have may have to go with the ones who voiced out for the silent or policy lynches. please note this question is very suspicious to me. Its as though you are trying to set up the lynches for the next phase, as if you know this is fact....!? 7. Look at the following trios and imagine you are a vigilante. In each triplet you must select the player you would choose to execute--the criteria for your choice can only be based on likelihood of that player to be a wolf, NOT on your opinion of their value as a cit. Please do not skip any of the triplets, and choose ONE player from each.
#1: Josh, dakrum, BB: #2: Jaz, TMB, BRU: #3: MW, BOT, GAW: #4: PD, XPR, Mystic: #5: fwy, BB, Mystic: #6: PD, Josh, Jaz: #7: MW, XPR, fwy: #8: BOT, TMB, Cait: #9: Mystic, GAW, BRU: #10: PD, dakrum, Cait: 8. Imagine for a moment you are 100% wrong about all of your suspects. Take a fresh look at the game and come up with a new top suspect, give a reason. A. this is too much information for the WWs to see. Even if this is speculation or randomization it could lead to be followed and/or used against us in later rounds, NOT by Villagers but by WW's 9. This is a hard one, but bear with me. Argue the case for why you are a wolf using the information currently available. If you object to answering this question, why?
A. Continuation from #8, If I were a WW this information could easily be used as weight against a player, whom I may want lynched. this information is highly useful to me as a WW I can manipulate it, turn it around, make it seem suspicious. As for Xpr.....
You are getting uptight...you defense is getting sarcastic. eye rolls and all. you are insulting me and others saying we are useless... You have not been playing a good game from jump, WWs shred AGM R0 a very bad play...imo. You state you would done the same thing!!! This statement would only bring unwanted attention to you, why would you do that??? Then to say "Yeah I guess saying nothing is clearly better" eyeroll... lol maybe saying something that doesnt look like you are trying to bluff about is BETTER! Or saying something that doesnt make u look suspicious lol Im not trying to start anything on you, you have been on my mind I have my answers from you. I did my questioning and I dont like the answers. as for the Josh Biz, I read nothing there.... Page 1 Nder mentioned no current game discussions. Josh replied (assuming) to Thror's statement of how the Scum always seem to be getting the angel or doctor R0.... I dont see a connection to Ryan at all??? NOTE: Your link is to a UBB gaming thread and not PFS Thread...are you sure about your information here...?
quote: Originally posted by Josh: I thought the current games could not be discussed here.
quote: Originally posted by Xpr: JoshSherman...something he said in the PFS felt kind of weird to me (He had asked about ryan's questions and if they were allowed).
Thats reaching if you expect any of us to follow that lead lol. so much misinformation Xpr....This is why I am voting for u....
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